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AkimfromParis 
posted an update Jan 3, 2025
Post
2027
💵 Polymarket is leveraging “Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard” on HuggingFace for online gambling on the “Top AI model on January 31?”. 🤗

As of January 3rd, 2025:
-1./ Gemini (83%) -2./ ChatGPT (13%) -3./ Other (2%) -4./ Claude (2%) -5./ Grok (1%) -6./ Llama (<1%)

🇺🇸 The market opinion is following historical data. It's clearly bias towards US historical AI giants, yet Polymarket is forbidden in the USA and for US citizens.

🇨🇳 In the “Other”, you might have Chinese AI labs that are probably the future AI leaders (Qwen, DeepSeek, Yi).

⚖️ In the market resolution, if two models are tied in the evaluation, they will take the alphabetical order. (e.g. if both were tied, “Google” would resolve to “Yes”, and “xAI” would resolve to “No”). 🙃

That might be illegal usage of the Chatbot Arena policy? And maybe HuggingFace? @clem
Or maybe authors and contributors should get a cut each month as “market markers”.  @weichiang @angelopoulos

Thanks! We're taking a look 🤗

Honestly, I find this whole setup fascinating but also a bit tricky. I was browsing around and saw that Polymarket is using the “Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard” for predicting the top AI model, and it feels like the market is heavily biased toward US-based AI giants, even though US citizens aren’t allowed to participate. It makes me wonder about fairness and potential policy violations—both from Chatbot Arena and HuggingFace’s side. Personally, I’ve been trying to explore ways to engage with predictive platforms more safely, and sites like https://kingdomcasino.xyz/ have shown me that transparency and proper user policies really matter. If contributors or authors were involved as “market markers,” it could help legitimize the setup, but the alphabetical tie-breaker seems a little arbitrary. Either way, it’s a reminder that even with cutting-edge AI, the rules and user protections have to come first.