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SubscribeHeaps' law and Heaps functions in tagged texts: Evidences of their linguistic relevance
We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or ``tags,'' namely, {\it nouns}, {\it verbs}, and {\it others}), and analyze the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. While the power-law relation prescribed by Heaps' law is satisfactorily fulfilled by total vocabulary sizes and text lengths, the appearance of new words in each text is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text, which does not obey a power law. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show a systematic trend across the corpus. Specifically, they reveal that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags are shown to add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with {\it verbs} and {\it others} being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and {\it nouns} following instead this overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.
Quantifying Variance in Evaluation Benchmarks
Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.
IsoScore: Measuring the Uniformity of Embedding Space Utilization
The recent success of distributed word representations has led to an increased interest in analyzing the properties of their spatial distribution. Several studies have suggested that contextualized word embedding models do not isotropically project tokens into vector space. However, current methods designed to measure isotropy, such as average random cosine similarity and the partition score, have not been thoroughly analyzed and are not appropriate for measuring isotropy. We propose IsoScore: a novel tool that quantifies the degree to which a point cloud uniformly utilizes the ambient vector space. Using rigorously designed tests, we demonstrate that IsoScore is the only tool available in the literature that accurately measures how uniformly distributed variance is across dimensions in vector space. Additionally, we use IsoScore to challenge a number of recent conclusions in the NLP literature that have been derived using brittle metrics of isotropy. We caution future studies from using existing tools to measure isotropy in contextualized embedding space as resulting conclusions will be misleading or altogether inaccurate.
Statistical Uncertainty in Word Embeddings: GloVe-V
Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe (Pennington et al., 2014), one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.
Lost in Variation? Evaluating NLI Performance in Basque and Spanish Geographical Variants
In this paper, we evaluate the capacity of current language technologies to understand Basque and Spanish language varieties. We use Natural Language Inference (NLI) as a pivot task and introduce a novel, manually-curated parallel dataset in Basque and Spanish, along with their respective variants. Our empirical analysis of crosslingual and in-context learning experiments using encoder-only and decoder-based Large Language Models (LLMs) shows a performance drop when handling linguistic variation, especially in Basque. Error analysis suggests that this decline is not due to lexical overlap, but rather to the linguistic variation itself. Further ablation experiments indicate that encoder-only models particularly struggle with Western Basque, which aligns with linguistic theory that identifies peripheral dialects (e.g., Western) as more distant from the standard. All data and code are publicly available.
Data Similarity is Not Enough to Explain Language Model Performance
Large language models achieve high performance on many but not all downstream tasks. The interaction between pretraining data and task data is commonly assumed to determine this variance: a task with data that is more similar to a model's pretraining data is assumed to be easier for that model. We test whether distributional and example-specific similarity measures (embedding-, token- and model-based) correlate with language model performance through a large-scale comparison of the Pile and C4 pretraining datasets with downstream benchmarks. Similarity correlates with performance for multilingual datasets, but in other benchmarks, we surprisingly find that similarity metrics are not correlated with accuracy or even each other. This suggests that the relationship between pretraining data and downstream tasks is more complex than often assumed.
Adding LLMs to the psycholinguistic norming toolbox: A practical guide to getting the most out of human ratings
Word-level psycholinguistic norms lend empirical support to theories of language processing. However, obtaining such human-based measures is not always feasible or straightforward. One promising approach is to augment human norming datasets by using Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict these characteristics directly, a practice that is rapidly gaining popularity in psycholinguistics and cognitive science. However, the novelty of this approach (and the relative inscrutability of LLMs) necessitates the adoption of rigorous methodologies that guide researchers through this process, present the range of possible approaches, and clarify limitations that are not immediately apparent, but may, in some cases, render the use of LLMs impractical. In this work, we present a comprehensive methodology for estimating word characteristics with LLMs, enriched with practical advice and lessons learned from our own experience. Our approach covers both the direct use of base LLMs and the fine-tuning of models, an alternative that can yield substantial performance gains in certain scenarios. A major emphasis in the guide is the validation of LLM-generated data with human "gold standard" norms. We also present a software framework that implements our methodology and supports both commercial and open-weight models. We illustrate the proposed approach with a case study on estimating word familiarity in English. Using base models, we achieved a Spearman correlation of 0.8 with human ratings, which increased to 0.9 when employing fine-tuned models. This methodology, framework, and set of best practices aim to serve as a reference for future research on leveraging LLMs for psycholinguistic and lexical studies.
Calibrated Chaos: Variance Between Runs of Neural Network Training is Harmless and Inevitable
Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.
Fractal Patterns May Unravel the Intelligence in Next-Token Prediction
We study the fractal structure of language, aiming to provide a precise formalism for quantifying properties that may have been previously suspected but not formally shown. We establish that language is: (1) self-similar, exhibiting complexities at all levels of granularity, with no particular characteristic context length, and (2) long-range dependent (LRD), with a Hurst parameter of approximately H=0.70. Based on these findings, we argue that short-term patterns/dependencies in language, such as in paragraphs, mirror the patterns/dependencies over larger scopes, like entire documents. This may shed some light on how next-token prediction can lead to a comprehension of the structure of text at multiple levels of granularity, from words and clauses to broader contexts and intents. We also demonstrate that fractal parameters improve upon perplexity-based bits-per-byte (BPB) in predicting downstream performance. We hope these findings offer a fresh perspective on language and the mechanisms underlying the success of LLMs.
[Re] Badder Seeds: Reproducing the Evaluation of Lexical Methods for Bias Measurement
Combating bias in NLP requires bias measurement. Bias measurement is almost always achieved by using lexicons of seed terms, i.e. sets of words specifying stereotypes or dimensions of interest. This reproducibility study focuses on the original authors' main claim that the rationale for the construction of these lexicons needs thorough checking before usage, as the seeds used for bias measurement can themselves exhibit biases. The study aims to evaluate the reproducibility of the quantitative and qualitative results presented in the paper and the conclusions drawn thereof. We reproduce most of the results supporting the original authors' general claim: seed sets often suffer from biases that affect their performance as a baseline for bias metrics. Generally, our results mirror the original paper's. They are slightly different on select occasions, but not in ways that undermine the paper's general intent to show the fragility of seed sets.
STEP: Learning N:M Structured Sparsity Masks from Scratch with Precondition
Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.
Lexinvariant Language Models
Token embeddings, a mapping from discrete lexical symbols to continuous vectors, are at the heart of any language model (LM). However, lexical symbol meanings can also be determined and even redefined by their structural role in a long context. In this paper, we ask: is it possible for a language model to be performant without any fixed token embeddings? Such a language model would have to rely entirely on the co-occurence and repetition of tokens in the context rather than the a priori identity of any token. To answer this, we study lexinvariantlanguage models that are invariant to lexical symbols and therefore do not need fixed token embeddings in practice. First, we prove that we can construct a lexinvariant LM to converge to the true language model at a uniform rate that is polynomial in terms of the context length, with a constant factor that is sublinear in the vocabulary size. Second, to build a lexinvariant LM, we simply encode tokens using random Gaussian vectors, such that each token maps to the same representation within each sequence but different representations across sequences. Empirically, we demonstrate that it can indeed attain perplexity comparable to that of a standard language model, given a sufficiently long context. We further explore two properties of the lexinvariant language models: First, given text generated from a substitution cipher of English, it implicitly implements Bayesian in-context deciphering and infers the mapping to the underlying real tokens with high accuracy. Second, it has on average 4X better accuracy over synthetic in-context reasoning tasks. Finally, we discuss regularizing standard language models towards lexinvariance and potential practical applications.
Fine-Tuning Visual Autoregressive Models for Subject-Driven Generation
Recent advances in text-to-image generative models have enabled numerous practical applications, including subject-driven generation, which fine-tunes pretrained models to capture subject semantics from only a few examples. While diffusion-based models produce high-quality images, their extensive denoising steps result in significant computational overhead, limiting real-world applicability. Visual autoregressive~(VAR) models, which predict next-scale tokens rather than spatially adjacent ones, offer significantly faster inference suitable for practical deployment. In this paper, we propose the first VAR-based approach for subject-driven generation. However, na\"{\i}ve fine-tuning VAR leads to computational overhead, language drift, and reduced diversity. To address these challenges, we introduce selective layer tuning to reduce complexity and prior distillation to mitigate language drift. Additionally, we found that the early stages have a greater influence on the generation of subject than the latter stages, which merely synthesize local details. Based on this finding, we propose scale-wise weighted tuning, which prioritizes coarser resolutions for promoting the model to focus on the subject-relevant information instead of local details. Extensive experiments validate that our method significantly outperforms diffusion-based baselines across various metrics and demonstrates its practical usage.
Beyond Film Subtitles: Is YouTube the Best Approximation of Spoken Vocabulary?
Word frequency is a key variable in psycholinguistics, useful for modeling human familiarity with words even in the era of large language models (LLMs). Frequency in film subtitles has proved to be a particularly good approximation of everyday language exposure. For many languages, however, film subtitles are not easily available, or are overwhelmingly translated from English. We demonstrate that frequencies extracted from carefully processed YouTube subtitles provide an approximation comparable to, and often better than, the best currently available resources. Moreover, they are available for languages for which a high-quality subtitle or speech corpus does not exist. We use YouTube subtitles to construct frequency norms for five diverse languages, Chinese, English, Indonesian, Japanese, and Spanish, and evaluate their correlation with lexical decision time, word familiarity, and lexical complexity. In addition to being strongly correlated with two psycholinguistic variables, a simple linear regression on the new frequencies achieves a new high score on a lexical complexity prediction task in English and Japanese, surpassing both models trained on film subtitle frequencies and the LLM GPT-4. Our code, the frequency lists, fastText word embeddings, and statistical language models are freely available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/tubelex.
Forking Paths in Neural Text Generation
Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring intermediate steps that might dramatically impact the outcome. We hypothesize that there exist key forking tokens, such that re-sampling the system at those specific tokens, but not others, leads to very different outcomes. To test this empirically, we develop a novel approach to representing uncertainty dynamics across individual tokens of text generation, and applying statistical models to test our hypothesis. Our approach is highly flexible: it can be applied to any dataset and any LLM, without fine tuning or accessing model weights. We use our method to analyze LLM responses on 7 different tasks across 4 domains, spanning a wide range of typical use cases. We find many examples of forking tokens, including surprising ones such as punctuation marks, suggesting that LLMs are often just a single token away from saying something very different.
A Latent Variable Model Approach to PMI-based Word Embeddings
Semantic word embeddings represent the meaning of a word via a vector, and are created by diverse methods. Many use nonlinear operations on co-occurrence statistics, and have hand-tuned hyperparameters and reweighting methods. This paper proposes a new generative model, a dynamic version of the log-linear topic model of~mnih2007three. The methodological novelty is to use the prior to compute closed form expressions for word statistics. This provides a theoretical justification for nonlinear models like PMI, word2vec, and GloVe, as well as some hyperparameter choices. It also helps explain why low-dimensional semantic embeddings contain linear algebraic structure that allows solution of word analogies, as shown by~mikolov2013efficient and many subsequent papers. Experimental support is provided for the generative model assumptions, the most important of which is that latent word vectors are fairly uniformly dispersed in space.
Visualizing Linguistic Diversity of Text Datasets Synthesized by Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) can be used to generate smaller, more refined datasets via few-shot prompting for benchmarking, fine-tuning or other use cases. However, understanding and evaluating these datasets is difficult, and the failure modes of LLM-generated data are still not well understood. Specifically, the data can be repetitive in surprising ways, not only semantically but also syntactically and lexically. We present LinguisticLens, a novel inter-active visualization tool for making sense of and analyzing syntactic diversity of LLM-generated datasets. LinguisticLens clusters text along syntactic, lexical, and semantic axes. It supports hierarchical visualization of a text dataset, allowing users to quickly scan for an overview and inspect individual examples. The live demo is available at shorturl.at/zHOUV.
Norm of Word Embedding Encodes Information Gain
Distributed representations of words encode lexical semantic information, but what type of information is encoded and how? Focusing on the skip-gram with negative-sampling method, we found that the squared norm of static word embedding encodes the information gain conveyed by the word; the information gain is defined by the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the co-occurrence distribution of the word to the unigram distribution. Our findings are explained by the theoretical framework of the exponential family of probability distributions and confirmed through precise experiments that remove spurious correlations arising from word frequency. This theory also extends to contextualized word embeddings in language models or any neural networks with the softmax output layer. We also demonstrate that both the KL divergence and the squared norm of embedding provide a useful metric of the informativeness of a word in tasks such as keyword extraction, proper-noun discrimination, and hypernym discrimination.
A Tale of Two Structures: Do LLMs Capture the Fractal Complexity of Language?
Language exhibits a fractal structure in its information-theoretic complexity (i.e. bits per token), with self-similarity across scales and long-range dependence (LRD). In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can replicate such fractal characteristics and identify conditions-such as temperature setting and prompting method-under which they may fail. Moreover, we find that the fractal parameters observed in natural language are contained within a narrow range, whereas those of LLMs' output vary widely, suggesting that fractal parameters might prove helpful in detecting a non-trivial portion of LLM-generated texts. Notably, these findings, and many others reported in this work, are robust to the choice of the architecture; e.g. Gemini 1.0 Pro, Mistral-7B and Gemma-2B. We also release a dataset comprising of over 240,000 articles generated by various LLMs (both pretrained and instruction-tuned) with different decoding temperatures and prompting methods, along with their corresponding human-generated texts. We hope that this work highlights the complex interplay between fractal properties, prompting, and statistical mimicry in LLMs, offering insights for generating, evaluating and detecting synthetic texts.
FLUKE: A Linguistically-Driven and Task-Agnostic Framework for Robustness Evaluation
We present FLUKE (Framework for LingUistically-driven and tasK-agnostic robustness Evaluation), a task-agnostic framework for assessing model robustness through systematic minimal variations of test data. FLUKE introduces controlled variations across linguistic levels - from orthography to dialect and style varieties - and leverages large language models (LLMs) with human validation to generate modifications. We demonstrate FLUKE's utility by evaluating both fine-tuned models and LLMs across four diverse NLP tasks, and reveal that (1) the impact of linguistic variations is highly task-dependent, with some tests being critical for certain tasks but irrelevant for others; (2) while LLMs have better overall robustness compared to fine-tuned models, they still exhibit significant brittleness to certain linguistic variations; (3) all models show substantial vulnerability to negation modifications across most tasks. These findings highlight the importance of systematic robustness testing for understanding model behaviors.
Mapping 'when'-clauses in Latin American and Caribbean languages: an experiment in subtoken-based typology
Languages can encode temporal subordination lexically, via subordinating conjunctions, and morphologically, by marking the relation on the predicate. Systematic cross-linguistic variation among the former can be studied using well-established token-based typological approaches to token-aligned parallel corpora. Variation among different morphological means is instead much harder to tackle and therefore more poorly understood, despite being predominant in several language groups. This paper explores variation in the expression of generic temporal subordination ('when'-clauses) among the languages of Latin America and the Caribbean, where morphological marking is particularly common. It presents probabilistic semantic maps computed on the basis of the languages of the region, thus avoiding bias towards the many world's languages that exclusively use lexified connectors, incorporating associations between character n-grams and English when. The approach allows capturing morphological clause-linkage devices in addition to lexified connectors, paving the way for larger-scale, strategy-agnostic analyses of typological variation in temporal subordination.
Tokenization is Sensitive to Language Variation
Variation in language is ubiquitous and often systematically linked to regional, social, and contextual factors. Tokenizers split texts into smaller units and might behave differently for less common linguistic forms. This might affect downstream LLM performance differently on two types of tasks: Tasks where the model should be robust to language variation (e.g., for semantic tasks like NLI, labels do not depend on whether a text uses British or American spelling) and tasks where the model should be sensitive to language variation (e.g., for form-based tasks like authorship verification, labels depend on whether a text uses British or American spelling). We pre-train BERT base models with the popular Byte-Pair Encoding algorithm to investigate how key tokenization design choices impact the performance of downstream models: the corpus used to train the tokenizer, the pre-tokenizer and the vocabulary size. We find that the best tokenizer varies on the two task types and that the pre-tokenizer has the biggest overall impact on performance. Further, we introduce a new approach to estimate tokenizer impact on downstream LLM performance, showing substantial improvement over metrics like R\'enyi efficiency. We encourage more work on language variation and its relation to tokenizers and thus LLM performance.
Position: Don't use the CLT in LLM evals with fewer than a few hundred datapoints
Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .
OpenGloss: A Synthetic Encyclopedic Dictionary and Semantic Knowledge Graph
We present OpenGloss, a synthetic encyclopedic dictionary and semantic knowledge graph for English that integrates lexicographic definitions, encyclopedic context, etymological histories, and semantic relationships in a unified resource. OpenGloss contains 537K senses across 150K lexemes, on par with WordNet 3.1 and Open English WordNet, while providing more than four times as many sense definitions. These lexemes include 9.1M semantic edges, 1M usage examples, 3M collocations, and 60M words of encyclopedic content. Generated through a multi-agent procedural generation pipeline with schema-validated LLM outputs and automated quality assurance, the entire resource was produced in under one week for under $1,000. This demonstrates that structured generation can create comprehensive lexical resources at cost and time scales impractical for manual curation, enabling rapid iteration as foundation models improve. The resource addresses gaps in pedagogical applications by providing integrated content -- definitions, examples, collocations, encyclopedias, etymology -- that supports both vocabulary learning and natural language processing tasks. As a synthetically generated resource, OpenGloss reflects both the capabilities and limitations of current foundation models. The dataset is publicly available on Hugging Face under CC-BY 4.0, enabling researchers and educators to build upon and adapt this resource.
Forcing Diffuse Distributions out of Language Models
Despite being trained specifically to follow user instructions, today's instructiontuned language models perform poorly when instructed to produce random outputs. For example, when prompted to pick a number uniformly between one and ten Llama-2-13B-chat disproportionately favors the number five, and when tasked with picking a first name at random, Mistral-7B-Instruct chooses Avery 40 times more often than we would expect based on the U.S. population. When these language models are used for real-world tasks where diversity of outputs is crucial, such as language model assisted dataset construction, their inability to produce diffuse distributions over valid choices is a major hurdle. In this work, we propose a fine-tuning method that encourages language models to output distributions that are diffuse over valid outcomes. The methods we introduce generalize across a variety of tasks and distributions and make large language models practical for synthetic dataset generation with little human intervention.
Large Language Model Hacking: Quantifying the Hidden Risks of Using LLMs for Text Annotation
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.
Latent Positional Information is in the Self-Attention Variance of Transformer Language Models Without Positional Embeddings
The use of positional embeddings in transformer language models is widely accepted. However, recent research has called into question the necessity of such embeddings. We further extend this inquiry by demonstrating that a randomly initialized and frozen transformer language model, devoid of positional embeddings, inherently encodes strong positional information through the shrinkage of self-attention variance. To quantify this variance, we derive the underlying distribution of each step within a transformer layer. Through empirical validation using a fully pretrained model, we show that the variance shrinkage effect still persists after extensive gradient updates. Our findings serve to justify the decision to discard positional embeddings and thus facilitate more efficient pretraining of transformer language models.
SpaDeLeF: A Dataset for Hierarchical Classification of Lexical Functions for Collocations in Spanish
In natural language processing (NLP), lexical function is a concept to unambiguously represent semantic and syntactic features of words and phrases in text first crafted in the Meaning-Text Theory. Hierarchical classification of lexical functions involves organizing these features into a tree-like hierarchy of categories or labels. This is a challenging task as it requires a good understanding of the context and the relationships among words and phrases in text. It also needs large amounts of labeled data to train language models effectively. In this paper, we present a dataset of most frequent Spanish verb-noun collocations and sentences where they occur, each collocation is assigned to one of 37 lexical functions defined as classes for a hierarchical classification task. Each class represents a relation between the noun and the verb in a collocation involving their semantic and syntactic features. We combine the classes in a tree-based structure, and introduce classification objectives for each level of the structure. The dataset was created by dependency tree parsing and matching of the phrases in Spanish news. We provide baselines and data splits for each objective.
Heaps' Law in GPT-Neo Large Language Model Emulated Corpora
Heaps' law is an empirical relation in text analysis that predicts vocabulary growth as a function of corpus size. While this law has been validated in diverse human-authored text corpora, its applicability to large language model generated text remains unexplored. This study addresses this gap, focusing on the emulation of corpora using the suite of GPT-Neo large language models. To conduct our investigation, we emulated corpora of PubMed abstracts using three different parameter sizes of the GPT-Neo model. Our emulation strategy involved using the initial five words of each PubMed abstract as a prompt and instructing the model to expand the content up to the original abstract's length. Our findings indicate that the generated corpora adhere to Heaps' law. Interestingly, as the GPT-Neo model size grows, its generated vocabulary increasingly adheres to Heaps' law as as observed in human-authored text. To further improve the richness and authenticity of GPT-Neo outputs, future iterations could emphasize enhancing model size or refining the model architecture to curtail vocabulary repetition.
Arrows of Time for Large Language Models
We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.
Benchmarking Debiasing Methods for LLM-based Parameter Estimates
Large language models (LLMs) offer an inexpensive yet powerful way to annotate text, but are often inconsistent when compared with experts. These errors can bias downstream estimates of population parameters such as regression coefficients and causal effects. To mitigate this bias, researchers have developed debiasing methods such as Design-based Supervised Learning (DSL) and Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI), which promise valid estimation by combining LLM annotations with a limited number of expensive expert annotations. Although these methods produce consistent estimates under theoretical assumptions, it is unknown how they compare in finite samples of sizes encountered in applied research. We make two contributions: First, we study how each method's performance scales with the number of expert annotations, highlighting regimes where LLM bias or limited expert labels significantly affect results. Second, we compare DSL and PPI across a range of tasks, finding that although both achieve low bias with large datasets, DSL often outperforms PPI on bias reduction and empirical efficiency, but its performance is less consistent across datasets. Our findings indicate that there is a bias-variance tradeoff at the level of debiasing methods, calling for more research on developing metrics for quantifying their efficiency in finite samples.
Rolling the DICE on Idiomaticity: How LLMs Fail to Grasp Context
Human processing of idioms relies on understanding the contextual sentences in which idioms occur, as well as language-intrinsic features such as frequency and speaker-intrinsic factors like familiarity. While LLMs have shown high performance on idiomaticity detection tasks, this success may be attributed to reasoning shortcuts in existing datasets. To this end, we construct a novel, controlled contrastive dataset designed to test whether LLMs can effectively use context to disambiguate idiomatic meaning. Additionally, we explore how collocational frequency and sentence probability influence model performance. Our findings reveal that LLMs often fail to resolve idiomaticity when it is required to attend to the surrounding context, and that models perform better on sentences that have higher likelihood. The collocational frequency of expressions also impacts performance. We make our code and dataset publicly available.
Paloma: A Benchmark for Evaluating Language Model Fit
Language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domainsx2013varying distributions of language. Rather than assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others, Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), measures LM fit to 585 text domains, ranging from nytimes.com to r/depression on Reddit. We invite submissions to our benchmark and organize results by comparability based on compliance with guidelines such as removal of benchmark contamination from pretraining. Submissions can also record parameter and training token count to make comparisons of Pareto efficiency for performance as a function of these measures of cost. We populate our benchmark with results from 6 baselines pretrained on popular corpora. In case studies, we demonstrate analyses that are possible with Paloma, such as finding that pretraining without data beyond Common Crawl leads to inconsistent fit to many domains.
With Little Power Comes Great Responsibility
Despite its importance to experimental design, statistical power (the probability that, given a real effect, an experiment will reject the null hypothesis) has largely been ignored by the NLP community. Underpowered experiments make it more difficult to discern the difference between statistical noise and meaningful model improvements, and increase the chances of exaggerated findings. By meta-analyzing a set of existing NLP papers and datasets, we characterize typical power for a variety of settings and conclude that underpowered experiments are common in the NLP literature. In particular, for several tasks in the popular GLUE benchmark, small test sets mean that most attempted comparisons to state of the art models will not be adequately powered. Similarly, based on reasonable assumptions, we find that the most typical experimental design for human rating studies will be underpowered to detect small model differences, of the sort that are frequently studied. For machine translation, we find that typical test sets of 2000 sentences have approximately 75% power to detect differences of 1 BLEU point. To improve the situation going forward, we give an overview of best practices for power analysis in NLP and release a series of notebooks to assist with future power analyses.
Large Language Model Recall Uncertainty is Modulated by the Fan Effect
This paper evaluates whether large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive fan effects, similar to those discovered by Anderson in humans, after being pre-trained on human textual data. We conduct two sets of in-context recall experiments designed to elicit fan effects. Consistent with human results, we find that LLM recall uncertainty, measured via token probability, is influenced by the fan effect. Our results show that removing uncertainty disrupts the observed effect. The experiments suggest the fan effect is consistent whether the fan value is induced in-context or in the pre-training data. Finally, these findings provide in-silico evidence that fan effects and typicality are expressions of the same phenomena.
Language Model Evaluation Beyond Perplexity
We propose an alternate approach to quantifying how well language models learn natural language: we ask how well they match the statistical tendencies of natural language. To answer this question, we analyze whether text generated from language models exhibits the statistical tendencies present in the human-generated text on which they were trained. We provide a framework--paired with significance tests--for evaluating the fit of language models to these trends. We find that neural language models appear to learn only a subset of the tendencies considered, but align much more closely with empirical trends than proposed theoretical distributions (when present). Further, the fit to different distributions is highly-dependent on both model architecture and generation strategy. As concrete examples, text generated under the nucleus sampling scheme adheres more closely to the type--token relationship of natural language than text produced using standard ancestral sampling; text from LSTMs reflects the natural language distributions over length, stopwords, and symbols surprisingly well.
Towards Better Inclusivity: A Diverse Tweet Corpus of English Varieties
The prevalence of social media presents a growing opportunity to collect and analyse examples of English varieties. Whilst usage of these varieties was - and, in many cases, still is - used only in spoken contexts or hard-to-access private messages, social media sites like Twitter provide a platform for users to communicate informally in a scrapeable format. Notably, Indian English (Hinglish), Singaporean English (Singlish), and African-American English (AAE) can be commonly found online. These varieties pose a challenge to existing natural language processing (NLP) tools as they often differ orthographically and syntactically from standard English for which the majority of these tools are built. NLP models trained on standard English texts produced biased outcomes for users of underrepresented varieties. Some research has aimed to overcome the inherent biases caused by unrepresentative data through techniques like data augmentation or adjusting training models. We aim to address the issue of bias at its root - the data itself. We curate a dataset of tweets from countries with high proportions of underserved English variety speakers, and propose an annotation framework of six categorical classifications along a pseudo-spectrum that measures the degree of standard English and that thereby indirectly aims to surface the manifestations of English varieties in these tweets. Following best annotation practices, our growing corpus features 170,800 tweets taken from 7 countries, labeled by annotators who are from those countries and can communicate in regionally-dominant varieties of English. Our corpus highlights the accuracy discrepancies in pre-trained language identifiers between western English and non-western (i.e., less standard) English varieties. We hope to contribute to the growing literature identifying and reducing the implicit demographic discrepancies in NLP.
Sensitivity of Generative VLMs to Semantically and Lexically Altered Prompts
Despite the significant influx of prompt-tuning techniques for generative vision-language models (VLMs), it remains unclear how sensitive these models are to lexical and semantic alterations in prompts. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of generative VLMs to understand lexical and semantic changes in text using the SugarCrepe++ dataset. We analyze the sensitivity of VLMs to lexical alterations in prompts without corresponding semantic changes. Our findings demonstrate that generative VLMs are highly sensitive to such alterations. Additionally, we show that this vulnerability affects the performance of techniques aimed at achieving consistency in their outputs.
Semantic Density: Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models through Confidence Measurement in Semantic Space
With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to various domains, concerns regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs in safety-critical scenarios have been raised, due to their unpredictable tendency to hallucinate and generate misinformation. Existing LLMs do not have an inherent functionality to provide the users with an uncertainty/confidence metric for each response it generates, making it difficult to evaluate trustworthiness. Although several studies aim to develop uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, they have fundamental limitations, such as being restricted to classification tasks, requiring additional training and data, considering only lexical instead of semantic information, and being prompt-wise but not response-wise. A new framework is proposed in this paper to address these issues. Semantic density extracts uncertainty/confidence information for each response from a probability distribution perspective in semantic space. It has no restriction on task types and is "off-the-shelf" for new models and tasks. Experiments on seven state-of-the-art LLMs, including the latest Llama 3 and Mixtral-8x22B models, on four free-form question-answering benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance and robustness of semantic density compared to prior approaches.
On Robustness and Reliability of Benchmark-Based Evaluation of LLMs
Large Language Models (LLMs) effectiveness is usually evaluated by means of benchmarks such as MMLU, ARC-C, or HellaSwag, where questions are presented in their original wording, thus in a fixed, standardized format. However, real-world applications involve linguistic variability, requiring models to maintain their effectiveness across diverse rewordings of the same question or query. In this study, we systematically assess the robustness of LLMs to paraphrased benchmark questions and investigate whether benchmark-based evaluations provide a reliable measure of model capabilities. We systematically generate various paraphrases of all the questions across six different common benchmarks, and measure the resulting variations in effectiveness of 34 state-of-the-art LLMs, of different size and effectiveness. Our findings reveal that while LLM rankings remain relatively stable across paraphrased inputs, absolute effectiveness scores change, and decline significantly. This suggests that LLMs struggle with linguistic variability, raising concerns about their generalization abilities and evaluation methodologies. Furthermore, the observed performance drop challenges the reliability of benchmark-based evaluations, indicating that high benchmark scores may not fully capture a model's robustness to real-world input variations. We discuss the implications of these findings for LLM evaluation methodologies, emphasizing the need for robustness-aware benchmarks that better reflect practical deployment scenarios.
Linguistic Dependencies and Statistical Dependence
Are pairs of words that tend to occur together also likely to stand in a linguistic dependency? This empirical question is motivated by a long history of literature in cognitive science, psycholinguistics, and NLP. In this work we contribute an extensive analysis of the relationship between linguistic dependencies and statistical dependence between words. Improving on previous work, we introduce the use of large pretrained language models to compute contextualized estimates of the pointwise mutual information between words (CPMI). For multiple models and languages, we extract dependency trees which maximize CPMI, and compare to gold standard linguistic dependencies. Overall, we find that CPMI dependencies achieve an unlabelled undirected attachment score of at most approx 0.5. While far above chance, and consistently above a non-contextualized PMI baseline, this score is generally comparable to a simple baseline formed by connecting adjacent words. We analyze which kinds of linguistic dependencies are best captured in CPMI dependencies, and also find marked differences between the estimates of the large pretrained language models, illustrating how their different training schemes affect the type of dependencies they capture.
Elo Uncovered: Robustness and Best Practices in Language Model Evaluation
In Natural Language Processing (NLP), the Elo rating system, originally designed for ranking players in dynamic games such as chess, is increasingly being used to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) through "A vs B" paired comparisons. However, while popular, the system's suitability for assessing entities with constant skill levels, such as LLMs, remains relatively unexplored. We study two fundamental axioms that evaluation methods should adhere to: reliability and transitivity. We conduct extensive evaluation of Elo behaviour, illustrating that individual Elo computations exhibit volatility and delving into the impact of varying the Elo rating system's hyperparameters. We show that these axioms are not always satisfied raising questions about the reliability of current comparative evaluations of LLMs. If the current use of Elo scores is intended to substitute the costly head-to-head comparison of LLMs, it is crucial to ensure the ranking is as robust as possible. Guided by the axioms, our findings offer concrete guidelines for enhancing the reliability of LLM evaluation methods, suggesting a need for reassessment of existing comparative approaches.
Evaluating the Zero-shot Robustness of Instruction-tuned Language Models
Instruction fine-tuning has recently emerged as a promising approach for improving the zero-shot capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) on new tasks. This technique has shown particular strength in improving the performance of modestly sized LLMs, sometimes inducing performance competitive with much larger model variants. In this paper we ask two questions: (1) How sensitive are instruction-tuned models to the particular phrasings of instructions, and, (2) How can we make them more robust to such natural language variation? To answer the former, we collect a set of 319 instructions manually written by NLP practitioners for over 80 unique tasks included in widely used benchmarks, and we evaluate the variance and average performance of these instructions as compared to instruction phrasings observed during instruction fine-tuning. We find that using novel (unobserved) but appropriate instruction phrasings consistently degrades model performance, sometimes substantially so. Further, such natural instructions yield a wide variance in downstream performance, despite their semantic equivalence. Put another way, instruction-tuned models are not especially robust to instruction re-phrasings. We propose a simple method to mitigate this issue by introducing ``soft prompt'' embedding parameters and optimizing these to maximize the similarity between representations of semantically equivalent instructions. We show that this method consistently improves the robustness of instruction-tuned models.
DOVE: A Large-Scale Multi-Dimensional Predictions Dataset Towards Meaningful LLM Evaluation
Recent work found that LLMs are sensitive to a wide range of arbitrary prompt dimensions, including the type of delimiters, answer enumerators, instruction wording, and more. This throws into question popular single-prompt evaluation practices. We present DOVE (Dataset Of Variation Evaluation) a large-scale dataset containing prompt perturbations of various evaluation benchmarks. In contrast to previous work, we examine LLM sensitivity from an holistic perspective, and assess the joint effects of perturbations along various dimensions, resulting in thousands of perturbations per instance. We evaluate several model families against DOVE, leading to several findings, including efficient methods for choosing well-performing prompts, observing that few-shot examples reduce sensitivity, and identifying instances which are inherently hard across all perturbations. DOVE consists of more than 250M prompt perturbations and model outputs, which we make publicly available to spur a community-wide effort toward meaningful, robust, and efficient evaluation. Browse the data, contribute, and more: https://slab-nlp.github.io/DOVE/
Variance Control via Weight Rescaling in LLM Pre-training
The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.
One Language, Many Gaps: Evaluating Dialect Fairness and Robustness of Large Language Models in Reasoning Tasks
Language is not monolithic. While many benchmarks are used as proxies to systematically estimate Large Language Models' (LLM) performance in real-life tasks, they tend to ignore the nuances of within-language variation and thus fail to model the experience of speakers of minority dialects. Focusing on African American Vernacular English (AAVE), we present the first study on LLMs' fairness and robustness to a dialect in canonical reasoning tasks (algorithm, math, logic, and comprehensive reasoning). We hire AAVE speakers, including experts with computer science backgrounds, to rewrite seven popular benchmarks, such as HumanEval and GSM8K. The result of this effort is ReDial, a dialectal benchmark comprising 1.2K+ parallel query pairs in Standardized English and AAVE. We use ReDial to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs, including GPT-4o/4/3.5-turbo, LLaMA-3.1/3, Mistral, and Phi-3. We find that, compared to Standardized English, almost all of these widely used models show significant brittleness and unfairness to queries in AAVE. Furthermore, AAVE queries can degrade performance more substantially than misspelled texts in Standardized English, even when LLMs are more familiar with the AAVE queries. Finally, asking models to rephrase questions in Standardized English does not close the performance gap but generally introduces higher costs. Overall, our findings indicate that LLMs provide unfair service to dialect users in complex reasoning tasks. Code can be found at https://github.com/fangru-lin/redial_dialect_robustness_fairness.git.
Fluid Language Model Benchmarking
Language model (LM) benchmarking faces several challenges: comprehensive evaluations are costly, benchmarks often fail to measure the intended capabilities, and evaluation quality can degrade due to labeling errors and benchmark saturation. Although various strategies have been proposed to mitigate these issues, they tend to address individual aspects in isolation, neglecting broader questions about overall evaluation quality. Here, we introduce Fluid Benchmarking, a new evaluation approach that advances LM benchmarking across multiple dimensions. Inspired by psychometrics, Fluid Benchmarking is based on the insight that the relative value of benchmark items depends on an LM's capability level, suggesting that evaluation should adapt to each LM. Methodologically, Fluid Benchmarking estimates an item response model based on existing LM evaluation results and uses the inferred quantities to select evaluation items dynamically, similar to computerized adaptive testing in education. In our experiments, we compare Fluid Benchmarking against the common practice of random item sampling as well as more sophisticated baselines, including alternative methods grounded in item response theory. We examine four dimensions -- efficiency, validity, variance, and saturation -- and find that Fluid Benchmarking achieves superior performance in all of them (e.g., higher validity and less variance on MMLU with fifty times fewer items). Our analysis shows that the two components of Fluid Benchmarking have distinct effects: item response theory, used to map performance into a latent ability space, increases validity, while dynamic item selection reduces variance. Overall, our results suggest that LM benchmarking can be substantially improved by moving beyond static evaluation.
ReliableEval: A Recipe for Stochastic LLM Evaluation via Method of Moments
LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments evaluation over the space of meaning-preserving prompt perturbations. We introduce a formal definition of reliable evaluation that accounts for prompt sensitivity, and suggest ReliableEval - a method for estimating the number of prompt resamplings needed to obtain meaningful results. Using our framework, we stochastically evaluate five frontier LLMs and find that even top-performing models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.7-Sonnet exhibit substantial prompt sensitivity. Our approach is model-, task-, and metric-agnostic, offering a recipe for meaningful and robust LLM evaluation.
Scaling Laws with Vocabulary: Larger Models Deserve Larger Vocabularies
Research on scaling large language models (LLMs) has primarily focused on model parameters and training data size, overlooking the role of vocabulary size. % Intuitively, larger vocabularies enable more efficient tokenization by representing sentences with fewer tokens, but they also increase the risk of under-fitting representations for rare tokens. We investigate how vocabulary size impacts LLM scaling laws by training models ranging from 33M to 3B parameters on up to 500B characters with various vocabulary configurations. We propose three complementary approaches for predicting the compute-optimal vocabulary size: IsoFLOPs analysis, derivative estimation, and parametric fit of the loss function. Our approaches converge on the same result that the optimal vocabulary size depends on the available compute budget and that larger models deserve larger vocabularies. However, most LLMs use too small vocabulary sizes. For example, we predict that the optimal vocabulary size of Llama2-70B should have been at least 216K, 7 times larger than its vocabulary of 32K. We validate our predictions empirically by training models with 3B parameters across different FLOPs budgets. Adopting our predicted optimal vocabulary size consistently improves downstream performance over commonly used vocabulary sizes. By increasing the vocabulary size from the conventional 32K to 43K, we improve performance on ARC-Challenge from 29.1 to 32.0 with the same 2.3e21 FLOPs. Our work emphasizes the necessity of jointly considering model parameters and vocabulary size for efficient scaling.
Sources of Hallucination by Large Language Models on Inference Tasks
Large Language Models (LLMs) are claimed to be capable of Natural Language Inference (NLI), necessary for applied tasks like question answering and summarization. We present a series of behavioral studies on several LLM families (LLaMA, GPT-3.5, and PaLM) which probe their behavior using controlled experiments. We establish two biases originating from pretraining which predict much of their behavior, and show that these are major sources of hallucination in generative LLMs. First, memorization at the level of sentences: we show that, regardless of the premise, models falsely label NLI test samples as entailing when the hypothesis is attested in training data, and that entities are used as ``indices'' to access the memorized data. Second, statistical patterns of usage learned at the level of corpora: we further show a similar effect when the premise predicate is less frequent than that of the hypothesis in the training data, a bias following from previous studies. We demonstrate that LLMs perform significantly worse on NLI test samples which do not conform to these biases than those which do, and we offer these as valuable controls for future LLM evaluation.
Shapley Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation
In question-answering tasks, determining when to trust the outputs is crucial to the alignment of large language models (LLMs). Kuhn et al. (2023) introduces semantic entropy as a measure of uncertainty, by incorporating linguistic invariances from the same meaning. It primarily relies on setting threshold to measure the level of semantic equivalence relation. We propose a more nuanced framework that extends beyond such thresholding by developing a Shapley-based uncertainty metric that captures the continuous nature of semantic relationships. We establish three fundamental properties that characterize valid uncertainty metrics and prove that our Shapley uncertainty satisfies these criteria. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our Shapley uncertainty more accurately predicts LLM performance in question-answering and other datasets, compared to similar baseline measures.
Benchmarking Distributional Alignment of Large Language Models
Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be distributionally aligned remains uncertain. This notion of distributional alignment is complex, as there is significant variation in the types of attributes that are simulated. Prior works have underexplored the role of three critical variables -- the question domain, steering method, and distribution expression method -- which motivates our contribution of a benchmark explicitly addressing these dimensions. We construct a dataset expanding beyond political values, create human baselines for this task, and evaluate the extent to which an LM can align with a particular group's opinion distribution to inform design choices of such simulation systems. Our analysis reveals open problems regarding if, and how, LMs can be used to simulate humans, and that LLMs can more accurately describe the opinion distribution than simulate such distributions.
Language Model Cascades: Token-level uncertainty and beyond
Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.
Lexically Constrained Decoding for Sequence Generation Using Grid Beam Search
We present Grid Beam Search (GBS), an algorithm which extends beam search to allow the inclusion of pre-specified lexical constraints. The algorithm can be used with any model that generates a sequence hat{y} = {y_{0}ldots y_{T}} , by maximizing p(y | x) = prodlimits_{t}p(y_{t} | x; {y_{0} ldots y_{t-1}}) . Lexical constraints take the form of phrases or words that must be present in the output sequence. This is a very general way to incorporate additional knowledge into a model's output without requiring any modification of the model parameters or training data. We demonstrate the feasibility and flexibility of Lexically Constrained Decoding by conducting experiments on Neural Interactive-Predictive Translation, as well as Domain Adaptation for Neural Machine Translation. Experiments show that GBS can provide large improvements in translation quality in interactive scenarios, and that, even without any user input, GBS can be used to achieve significant gains in performance in domain adaptation scenarios.
Large Language Models for Data Synthesis
Generating synthetic data that faithfully captures the statistical structure of real-world distributions is a fundamental challenge in data modeling. Classical approaches often depend on strong parametric assumptions or manual structural design and struggle in high-dimensional or heterogeneous domains. Recent progress in Large Language Models (LLMs) reveals their potential as flexible, high-dimensional priors over real-world distributions. However, when applied to data synthesis, standard LLM-based sampling is inefficient, constrained by fixed context limits, and fails to ensure statistical alignment. Given this, we introduce LLMSynthor, a general framework for data synthesis that transforms LLMs into structure-aware simulators guided by distributional feedback. LLMSynthor treats the LLM as a nonparametric copula simulator for modeling high-order dependencies and introduces LLM Proposal Sampling to generate grounded proposal distributions that improve sampling efficiency without requiring rejection. By minimizing discrepancies in the summary statistics space, the iterative synthesis loop aligns real and synthetic data while gradually uncovering and refining the latent generative structure. We evaluate LLMSynthor in both controlled and real-world settings using heterogeneous datasets in privacy-sensitive domains (e.g., e-commerce, population, and mobility) that encompass both structured and unstructured formats. The synthetic data produced by LLMSynthor shows high statistical fidelity, practical utility, and cross-data adaptability, positioning it as a valuable tool across economics, social science, urban studies, and beyond.
Set-Based Prompting: Provably Solving the Language Model Order Dependency Problem
The development of generative language models that can create long and coherent textual outputs via autoregression has lead to a proliferation of uses and a corresponding sweep of analyses as researches work to determine the limitations of this new paradigm. Unlike humans, these 'Large Language Models' (LLMs) are highly sensitive to small changes in their inputs, leading to unwanted inconsistency in their behavior. One problematic inconsistency when LLMs are used to answer multiple-choice questions or analyze multiple inputs is order dependency: the output of an LLM can (and often does) change significantly when sub-sequences are swapped, despite both orderings being semantically identical. In this paper we present , a technique that guarantees the output of an LLM will not have order dependence on a specified set of sub-sequences. We show that this method provably eliminates order dependency, and that it can be applied to any transformer-based LLM to enable text generation that is unaffected by re-orderings. Delving into the implications of our method, we show that, despite our inputs being out of distribution, the impact on expected accuracy is small, where the expectation is over the order of uniformly chosen shuffling of the candidate responses, and usually significantly less in practice. Thus, can be used as a 'dropped-in' method on fully trained models. Finally, we discuss how our method's success suggests that other strong guarantees can be obtained on LLM performance via modifying the input representations.
SelfReflect: Can LLMs Communicate Their Internal Answer Distribution?
The common approach to communicate a large language model's (LLM) uncertainty is to add a percentage number or a hedging word to its response. But is this all we can do? Instead of generating a single answer and then hedging it, an LLM that is fully transparent to the user needs to be able to reflect on its internal belief distribution and output a summary of all options it deems possible, and how likely they are. To test whether LLMs possess this capability, we develop the SelfReflect metric, an information-theoretic distance between a given summary and a distribution over answers. In interventional and human studies, we find that SelfReflect indicates even slight deviations, yielding a fine measure of faithfulness between a summary string and an LLM's actual internal distribution over answers. With SelfReflect, we make a resounding negative observation: modern LLMs are, across the board, incapable of revealing what they are uncertain about, neither through reasoning, nor chains-of-thoughts, nor explicit finetuning. However, we do find that LLMs are able to generate faithful summaries of their uncertainties if we help them by sampling multiple outputs and feeding them back into the context. This simple approach shines a light at the universal way of communicating LLM uncertainties whose future development the SelfReflect score enables.
Investigating the Impact of Model Complexity in Large Language Models
Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of how model complexity influences fine-tuning performance remains challenging and has not been well explored yet. In this paper, we focus on autoregressive LLMs and propose to employ Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model them. Based on the HMM modeling, we investigate the relationship between model complexity and the generalization capability in downstream tasks. Specifically, we consider a popular tuning paradigm for downstream tasks, head tuning, where all pre-trained parameters are frozen and only individual heads are trained atop pre-trained LLMs. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the risk initially increases and then decreases with rising model complexity, showcasing a "double descent" phenomenon. In this case, the initial "descent" is degenerate, signifying that the "sweet spot" where bias and variance are balanced occurs when the model size is zero. Obtaining the presented in this study conclusion confronts several challenges, primarily revolving around effectively modeling autoregressive LLMs and downstream tasks, as well as conducting a comprehensive risk analysis for multivariate regression. Our research is substantiated by experiments conducted on data generated from HMMs, which provided empirical support and alignment with our theoretical insights.
Unified Lexical Representation for Interpretable Visual-Language Alignment
Visual-Language Alignment (VLA) has gained a lot of attention since CLIP's groundbreaking work. Although CLIP performs well, the typical direct latent feature alignment lacks clarity in its representation and similarity scores. On the other hand, lexical representation, a vector whose element represents the similarity between the sample and a word from the vocabulary, is a natural sparse representation and interpretable, providing exact matches for individual words. However, lexical representations is difficult to learn due to no ground-truth supervision and false-discovery issues, and thus requires complex design to train effectively. In this paper, we introduce LexVLA, a more interpretable VLA framework by learning a unified lexical representation for both modalities without complex design. We use DINOv2 as our visual model for its local-inclined features and Llama 2, a generative language model, to leverage its in-context lexical prediction ability. To avoid the false discovery, we propose an overuse penalty to refrain the lexical representation from falsely frequently activating meaningless words. We demonstrate that these two pre-trained uni-modal models can be well-aligned by fine-tuning on modest multi-modal dataset and avoid intricate training configurations. On cross-modal retrieval benchmarks, LexVLA, trained on the CC-12M multi-modal dataset, outperforms baselines fine-tuned on larger datasets (e.g., YFCC15M) and those trained from scratch on even bigger datasets (e.g., 1.1B data, including CC-12M). We conduct extensive experiments to analyze LexVLA.
Improving Reasoning for Diffusion Language Models via Group Diffusion Policy Optimization
Diffusion language models (DLMs) enable parallel, order-agnostic generation with iterative refinement, offering a flexible alternative to autoregressive large language models (LLMs). However, adapting reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning to DLMs remains an open challenge because of the intractable likelihood. Pioneering work such as diffu-GRPO estimated token-level likelihoods via one-step unmasking. While computationally efficient, this approach is severely biased. A more principled foundation lies in sequence-level likelihoods, where the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serves as a surrogate. Yet, despite this clean mathematical connection, ELBO-based methods have seen limited adoption due to the prohibitive cost of likelihood evaluation. In this work, we revisit ELBO estimation and disentangle its sources of variance. This decomposition motivates reducing variance through fast, deterministic integral approximations along a few pivotal dimensions. Building on this insight, we introduce Group Diffusion Policy Optimization (GDPO), a new RL algorithm tailored for DLMs. GDPO leverages simple yet effective Semi-deterministic Monte Carlo schemes to mitigate the variance explosion of ELBO estimators under vanilla double Monte Carlo sampling, yielding a provably lower-variance estimator under tight evaluation budgets. Empirically, GDPO achieves consistent gains over pretrained checkpoints and outperforms diffu-GRPO, one of the state-of-the-art baselines, on the majority of math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.
Towards Interpreting and Mitigating Shortcut Learning Behavior of NLU Models
Recent studies indicate that NLU models are prone to rely on shortcut features for prediction, without achieving true language understanding. As a result, these models fail to generalize to real-world out-of-distribution data. In this work, we show that the words in the NLU training set can be modeled as a long-tailed distribution. There are two findings: 1) NLU models have strong preference for features located at the head of the long-tailed distribution, and 2) Shortcut features are picked up during very early few iterations of the model training. These two observations are further employed to formulate a measurement which can quantify the shortcut degree of each training sample. Based on this shortcut measurement, we propose a shortcut mitigation framework LTGR, to suppress the model from making overconfident predictions for samples with large shortcut degree. Experimental results on three NLU benchmarks demonstrate that our long-tailed distribution explanation accurately reflects the shortcut learning behavior of NLU models. Experimental analysis further indicates that LTGR can improve the generalization accuracy on OOD data, while preserving the accuracy on in-distribution data.
Comparing Performance of Different Linguistically-Backed Word Embeddings for Cyberbullying Detection
In most cases, word embeddings are learned only from raw tokens or in some cases, lemmas. This includes pre-trained language models like BERT. To investigate on the potential of capturing deeper relations between lexical items and structures and to filter out redundant information, we propose to preserve the morphological, syntactic and other types of linguistic information by combining them with the raw tokens or lemmas. This means, for example, including parts-of-speech or dependency information within the used lexical features. The word embeddings can then be trained on the combinations instead of just raw tokens. It is also possible to later apply this method to the pre-training of huge language models and possibly enhance their performance. This would aid in tackling problems which are more sophisticated from the point of view of linguistic representation, such as detection of cyberbullying.
The language of prompting: What linguistic properties make a prompt successful?
The latest generation of LLMs can be prompted to achieve impressive zero-shot or few-shot performance in many NLP tasks. However, since performance is highly sensitive to the choice of prompts, considerable effort has been devoted to crowd-sourcing prompts or designing methods for prompt optimisation. Yet, we still lack a systematic understanding of how linguistic properties of prompts correlate with task performance. In this work, we investigate how LLMs of different sizes, pre-trained and instruction-tuned, perform on prompts that are semantically equivalent, but vary in linguistic structure. We investigate both grammatical properties such as mood, tense, aspect and modality, as well as lexico-semantic variation through the use of synonyms. Our findings contradict the common assumption that LLMs achieve optimal performance on lower perplexity prompts that reflect language use in pretraining or instruction-tuning data. Prompts transfer poorly between datasets or models, and performance cannot generally be explained by perplexity, word frequency, ambiguity or prompt length. Based on our results, we put forward a proposal for a more robust and comprehensive evaluation standard for prompting research.
Lexical Generalization Improves with Larger Models and Longer Training
While fine-tuned language models perform well on many tasks, they were also shown to rely on superficial surface features such as lexical overlap. Excessive utilization of such heuristics can lead to failure on challenging inputs. We analyze the use of lexical overlap heuristics in natural language inference, paraphrase detection, and reading comprehension (using a novel contrastive dataset), and find that larger models are much less susceptible to adopting lexical overlap heuristics. We also find that longer training leads models to abandon lexical overlap heuristics. Finally, we provide evidence that the disparity between models size has its source in the pre-trained model
PowerNorm: Rethinking Batch Normalization in Transformers
The standard normalization method for neural network (NN) models used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) is layer normalization (LN). This is different than batch normalization (BN), which is widely-adopted in Computer Vision. The preferred use of LN in NLP is principally due to the empirical observation that a (naive/vanilla) use of BN leads to significant performance degradation for NLP tasks; however, a thorough understanding of the underlying reasons for this is not always evident. In this paper, we perform a systematic study of NLP transformer models to understand why BN has a poor performance, as compared to LN. We find that the statistics of NLP data across the batch dimension exhibit large fluctuations throughout training. This results in instability, if BN is naively implemented. To address this, we propose Power Normalization (PN), a novel normalization scheme that resolves this issue by (i) relaxing zero-mean normalization in BN, (ii) incorporating a running quadratic mean instead of per batch statistics to stabilize fluctuations, and (iii) using an approximate backpropagation for incorporating the running statistics in the forward pass. We show theoretically, under mild assumptions, that PN leads to a smaller Lipschitz constant for the loss, compared with BN. Furthermore, we prove that the approximate backpropagation scheme leads to bounded gradients. We extensively test PN for transformers on a range of NLP tasks, and we show that it significantly outperforms both LN and BN. In particular, PN outperforms LN by 0.4/0.6 BLEU on IWSLT14/WMT14 and 5.6/3.0 PPL on PTB/WikiText-103. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/sIncerass/powernorm.
VALUE: Understanding Dialect Disparity in NLU
English Natural Language Understanding (NLU) systems have achieved great performances and even outperformed humans on benchmarks like GLUE and SuperGLUE. However, these benchmarks contain only textbook Standard American English (SAE). Other dialects have been largely overlooked in the NLP community. This leads to biased and inequitable NLU systems that serve only a sub-population of speakers. To understand disparities in current models and to facilitate more dialect-competent NLU systems, we introduce the VernAcular Language Understanding Evaluation (VALUE) benchmark, a challenging variant of GLUE that we created with a set of lexical and morphosyntactic transformation rules. In this initial release (V.1), we construct rules for 11 features of African American Vernacular English (AAVE), and we recruit fluent AAVE speakers to validate each feature transformation via linguistic acceptability judgments in a participatory design manner. Experiments show that these new dialectal features can lead to a drop in model performance. To run the transformation code and download both synthetic and gold-standard dialectal GLUE benchmarks, see https://github.com/SALT-NLP/value
Token Erasure as a Footprint of Implicit Vocabulary Items in LLMs
LLMs process text as sequences of tokens that roughly correspond to words, where less common words are represented by multiple tokens. However, individual tokens are often semantically unrelated to the meanings of the words/concepts they comprise. For example, Llama-2-7b's tokenizer splits the word "northeastern" into the tokens ['_n', 'ort', 'he', 'astern'], none of which correspond to semantically meaningful units like "north" or "east." Similarly, the overall meanings of named entities like "Neil Young" and multi-word expressions like "break a leg" cannot be directly inferred from their constituent tokens. Mechanistically, how do LLMs convert such arbitrary groups of tokens into useful higher-level representations? In this work, we find that last token representations of named entities and multi-token words exhibit a pronounced "erasure" effect, where information about previous and current tokens is rapidly forgotten in early layers. Using this observation, we propose a method to "read out" the implicit vocabulary of an autoregressive LLM by examining differences in token representations across layers, and present results of this method for Llama-2-7b and Llama-3-8B. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to probe the implicit vocabulary of an LLM.
VAR-CLIP: Text-to-Image Generator with Visual Auto-Regressive Modeling
VAR is a new generation paradigm that employs 'next-scale prediction' as opposed to 'next-token prediction'. This innovative transformation enables auto-regressive (AR) transformers to rapidly learn visual distributions and achieve robust generalization. However, the original VAR model is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis, relying solely on textual captions for guidance. In this paper, we introduce VAR-CLIP, a novel text-to-image model that integrates Visual Auto-Regressive techniques with the capabilities of CLIP. The VAR-CLIP framework encodes captions into text embeddings, which are then utilized as textual conditions for image generation. To facilitate training on extensive datasets, such as ImageNet, we have constructed a substantial image-text dataset leveraging BLIP2. Furthermore, we delve into the significance of word positioning within CLIP for the purpose of caption guidance. Extensive experiments confirm VAR-CLIP's proficiency in generating fantasy images with high fidelity, textual congruence, and aesthetic excellence. Our project page are https://github.com/daixiangzi/VAR-CLIP
"I'm Not Sure, But...": Examining the Impact of Large Language Models' Uncertainty Expression on User Reliance and Trust
Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.
Token embeddings violate the manifold hypothesis
To fully understand the behavior of a large language model (LLM) requires our understanding of its input space. If this input space differs from our assumption, our understanding of and conclusions about the LLM is likely flawed, regardless of its architecture. Here, we elucidate the structure of the token embeddings, the input domain for LLMs, both empirically and theoretically. We present a generalized and statistically testable model where the neighborhood of each token splits into well-defined signal and noise dimensions. This model is based on a generalization of a manifold called a fiber bundle, so we denote our hypothesis test as the ``fiber bundle null.'' Failing to reject the null is uninformative, but rejecting it at a specific token indicates that token has a statistically significant local structure, and so is of interest to us. By running our test over several open-source LLMs, each with unique token embeddings, we find that the null is frequently rejected, and so the token subspace is provably not a fiber bundle and hence also not a manifold. As a consequence of our findings, when an LLM is presented with two semantically equivalent prompts, and if one prompt contains a token implicated by our test, that prompt will likely exhibit more output variability proportional to the local signal dimension of the token.
Rethinking and Refining the Distinct Metric
Distinct-n scoreLi2016 is a widely used automatic metric for evaluating diversity in language generation tasks. However, we observed that the original approach for calculating distinct scores has evident biases that tend to assign higher penalties to longer sequences. We refine the calculation of distinct scores by scaling the number of distinct tokens based on their expectations. We provide both empirical and theoretical evidence to show that our method effectively removes the biases existing in the original distinct score. Our experiments show that our proposed metric, Expectation-Adjusted Distinct (EAD), correlates better with human judgment in evaluating response diversity. To foster future research, we provide an example implementation at https://github.com/lsy641/Expectation-Adjusted-Distinct.
LongLLaDA: Unlocking Long Context Capabilities in Diffusion LLMs
Large Language Diffusion Models, or diffusion LLMs, have emerged as a significant focus in NLP research, with substantial effort directed toward understanding their scalability and downstream task performance. However, their long-context capabilities remain unexplored, lacking systematic analysis or methods for context extension. In this work, we present the first systematic investigation comparing the long-context performance of diffusion LLMs and traditional auto-regressive LLMs. We first identify a unique characteristic of diffusion LLMs, unlike auto-regressive LLMs, they maintain remarkably \textit{stable perplexity} during direct context extrapolation. Furthermore, where auto-regressive models fail outright during the Needle-In-A-Haystack task with context exceeding their pretrained length, we discover diffusion LLMs exhibit a distinct \textit{local perception} phenomenon, enabling successful retrieval from recent context segments. We explain both phenomena through the lens of Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) scaling theory. Building on these observations, we propose LongLLaDA, a training-free method that integrates LLaDA with the NTK-based RoPE extrapolation. Our results validate that established extrapolation scaling laws remain effective for extending the context windows of diffusion LLMs. Furthermore, we identify long-context tasks where diffusion LLMs outperform auto-regressive LLMs and others where they fall short. Consequently, this study establishes the first context extrapolation method for diffusion LLMs while providing essential theoretical insights and empirical benchmarks critical for advancing future research on long-context diffusion LLMs.
Epistemic Diversity and Knowledge Collapse in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) tend to generate lexically, semantically, and stylistically homogenous texts. This poses a risk of knowledge collapse, where homogenous LLMs mediate a shrinking in the range of accessible information over time. Existing works on homogenization are limited by a focus on closed-ended multiple-choice setups or fuzzy semantic features, and do not look at trends across time and cultural contexts. To overcome this, we present a new methodology to measure epistemic diversity, i.e., variation in real-world claims in LLM outputs, which we use to perform a broad empirical study of LLM knowledge collapse. We test 27 LLMs, 155 topics covering 12 countries, and 200 prompt variations sourced from real user chats. For the topics in our study, we show that while newer models tend to generate more diverse claims, nearly all models are less epistemically diverse than a basic web search. We find that model size has a negative impact on epistemic diversity, while retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has a positive impact, though the improvement from RAG varies by the cultural context. Finally, compared to a traditional knowledge source (Wikipedia), we find that country-specific claims reflect the English language more than the local one, highlighting a gap in epistemic representation
Invar-RAG: Invariant LLM-aligned Retrieval for Better Generation
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has shown impressive capability in providing reliable answer predictions and addressing hallucination problems. A typical RAG implementation uses powerful retrieval models to extract external information and large language models (LLMs) to generate answers. In contrast, recent LLM-based retrieval has gained attention for its substantial improvements in information retrieval (IR) due to the LLMs' semantic understanding capability. However, directly applying LLM to RAG systems presents challenges. This may cause feature locality problems as massive parametric knowledge can hinder effective usage of global information across the corpus; for example, an LLM-based retriever often inputs document summaries instead of full documents. Moreover, various pre-trained tasks in LLMs introduce variance, further weakening performance as a retriever. To address these issues, we propose a novel two-stage fine-tuning architecture called Invar-RAG. In the retrieval stage, an LLM-based retriever is constructed by integrating LoRA-based representation learning to tackle feature locality issues. To enhance retrieval performance, we develop two patterns (invariant and variant patterns) and an invariance loss to reduce LLM variance. In the generation stage, a refined fine-tuning method is employed to improve LLM accuracy in generating answers based on retrieved information. Experimental results show that Invar-RAG significantly outperforms existing baselines across three open-domain question answering (ODQA) datasets. Code is available in the Supplementary Material for reproducibility.
Mimicking Word Embeddings using Subword RNNs
Word embeddings improve generalization over lexical features by placing each word in a lower-dimensional space, using distributional information obtained from unlabeled data. However, the effectiveness of word embeddings for downstream NLP tasks is limited by out-of-vocabulary (OOV) words, for which embeddings do not exist. In this paper, we present MIMICK, an approach to generating OOV word embeddings compositionally, by learning a function from spellings to distributional embeddings. Unlike prior work, MIMICK does not require re-training on the original word embedding corpus; instead, learning is performed at the type level. Intrinsic and extrinsic evaluations demonstrate the power of this simple approach. On 23 languages, MIMICK improves performance over a word-based baseline for tagging part-of-speech and morphosyntactic attributes. It is competitive with (and complementary to) a supervised character-based model in low-resource settings.
Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Uncertainty Estimation of Large Language Models
While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.
Rethinking Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.
Know thy corpus! Robust methods for digital curation of Web corpora
This paper proposes a novel framework for digital curation of Web corpora in order to provide robust estimation of their parameters, such as their composition and the lexicon. In recent years language models pre-trained on large corpora emerged as clear winners in numerous NLP tasks, but no proper analysis of the corpora which led to their success has been conducted. The paper presents a procedure for robust frequency estimation, which helps in establishing the core lexicon for a given corpus, as well as a procedure for estimating the corpus composition via unsupervised topic models and via supervised genre classification of Web pages. The results of the digital curation study applied to several Web-derived corpora demonstrate their considerable differences. First, this concerns different frequency bursts which impact the core lexicon obtained from each corpus. Second, this concerns the kinds of texts they contain. For example, OpenWebText contains considerably more topical news and political argumentation in comparison to ukWac or Wikipedia. The tools and the results of analysis have been released.
Fine-Tuning Pretrained Language Models: Weight Initializations, Data Orders, and Early Stopping
Fine-tuning pretrained contextual word embedding models to supervised downstream tasks has become commonplace in natural language processing. This process, however, is often brittle: even with the same hyperparameter values, distinct random seeds can lead to substantially different results. To better understand this phenomenon, we experiment with four datasets from the GLUE benchmark, fine-tuning BERT hundreds of times on each while varying only the random seeds. We find substantial performance increases compared to previously reported results, and we quantify how the performance of the best-found model varies as a function of the number of fine-tuning trials. Further, we examine two factors influenced by the choice of random seed: weight initialization and training data order. We find that both contribute comparably to the variance of out-of-sample performance, and that some weight initializations perform well across all tasks explored. On small datasets, we observe that many fine-tuning trials diverge part of the way through training, and we offer best practices for practitioners to stop training less promising runs early. We publicly release all of our experimental data, including training and validation scores for 2,100 trials, to encourage further analysis of training dynamics during fine-tuning.
Stress Testing Generalization: How Minor Modifications Undermine Large Language Model Performance
This paper investigates the fragility of Large Language Models (LLMs) in generalizing to novel inputs, specifically focusing on minor perturbations in well-established benchmarks (e.g., slight changes in question format or distractor length). Despite high benchmark scores, LLMs exhibit significant accuracy drops and unexpected biases (e.g., preference for longer distractors) when faced with these minor but content-preserving modifications. For example, Qwen 2.5 1.5B's MMLU score rises from 60 to 89 and drops from 89 to 36 when option lengths are changed without altering the question. Even GPT-4 experiences a 25-point accuracy loss when question types are changed, with a 6-point drop across all three modification categories. These analyses suggest that LLMs rely heavily on superficial cues rather than forming robust, abstract representations that generalize across formats, lexical variations, and irrelevant content shifts. This work aligns with the ACL 2025 theme track on the Generalization of NLP models, proposing a "Generalization Stress Test" to assess performance shifts under controlled perturbations. The study calls for reevaluating benchmarks and developing more reliable evaluation methodologies to capture LLM generalization abilities better.
Locally Typical Sampling
Today's probabilistic language generators fall short when it comes to producing coherent and fluent text despite the fact that the underlying models perform well under standard metrics, e.g., perplexity. This discrepancy has puzzled the language generation community for the last few years. In this work, we posit that the abstraction of natural language generation as a discrete stochastic process--which allows for an information-theoretic analysis--can provide new insights into the behavior of probabilistic language generators, e.g., why high-probability texts can be dull or repetitive. Humans use language as a means of communicating information, aiming to do so in a simultaneously efficient and error-minimizing manner; in fact, psycholinguistics research suggests humans choose each word in a string with this subconscious goal in mind. We formally define the set of strings that meet this criterion: those for which each word has an information content close to the expected information content, i.e., the conditional entropy of our model. We then propose a simple and efficient procedure for enforcing this criterion when generating from probabilistic models, which we call locally typical sampling. Automatic and human evaluations show that, in comparison to nucleus and top-k sampling, locally typical sampling offers competitive performance (in both abstractive summarization and story generation) in terms of quality while consistently reducing degenerate repetitions.
Correlation Dimension of Auto-Regressive Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in natural language generation, yet they continue to display puzzling behaviors -- such as repetition and incoherence -- even when exhibiting low perplexity. This highlights a key limitation of conventional evaluation metrics, which emphasize local prediction accuracy while overlooking long-range structural complexity. We introduce correlation dimension, a fractal-geometric measure of self-similarity, to quantify the epistemological complexity of text as perceived by a language model. This measure captures the hierarchical recurrence structure of language, bridging local and global properties in a unified framework. Through extensive experiments, we show that correlation dimension (1) reveals three distinct phases during pretraining, (2) reflects context-dependent complexity, (3) indicates a model's tendency toward hallucination, and (4) reliably detects multiple forms of degeneration in generated text. The method is computationally efficient, robust to model quantization (down to 4-bit precision), broadly applicable across autoregressive architectures (e.g., Transformer and Mamba), and provides fresh insight into the generative dynamics of LLMs.
A Latent Space Theory for Emergent Abilities in Large Language Models
Languages are not created randomly but rather to communicate information. There is a strong association between languages and their underlying meanings, resulting in a sparse joint distribution that is heavily peaked according to their correlations. Moreover, these peak values happen to match with the marginal distribution of languages due to the sparsity. With the advent of LLMs trained on big data and large models, we can now precisely assess the marginal distribution of languages, providing a convenient means of exploring the sparse structures in the joint distribution for effective inferences. In this paper, we categorize languages as either unambiguous or {\epsilon}-ambiguous and present quantitative results to demonstrate that the emergent abilities of LLMs, such as language understanding, in-context learning, chain-of-thought prompting, and effective instruction fine-tuning, can all be attributed to Bayesian inference on the sparse joint distribution of languages.
Semantically Diverse Language Generation for Uncertainty Estimation in Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) can suffer from hallucinations when generating text. These hallucinations impede various applications in society and industry by making LLMs untrustworthy. Current LLMs generate text in an autoregressive fashion by predicting and appending text tokens. When an LLM is uncertain about the semantic meaning of the next tokens to generate, it is likely to start hallucinating. Thus, it has been suggested that hallucinations stem from predictive uncertainty. We introduce Semantically Diverse Language Generation (SDLG) to quantify predictive uncertainty in LLMs. SDLG steers the LLM to generate semantically diverse yet likely alternatives for an initially generated text. This approach provides a precise measure of aleatoric semantic uncertainty, detecting whether the initial text is likely to be hallucinated. Experiments on question-answering tasks demonstrate that SDLG consistently outperforms existing methods while being the most computationally efficient, setting a new standard for uncertainty estimation in LLMs.
Small Edits, Big Consequences: Telling Good from Bad Robustness in Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) now write code in settings where misreading a single word can break safety or cost money, yet we still expect them to overlook stray typos. To probe where useful robustness ends and harmful insensitivity begins, we compile 50 LeetCode problems and craft three minimal prompt perturbations that should vary in importance: (i) progressive underspecification deleting 10 % of words per step; (ii) lexical flip swapping a pivotal quantifier ("max" to "min"); and (iii) jargon inflation replacing a common noun with an obscure technical synonym. Six frontier models, including three "reasoning-tuned" versions, solve each mutated prompt, and their Python outputs are checked against the original test suites to reveal whether they reused the baseline solution or adapted. Among 11 853 generations we observe a sharp double asymmetry. Models remain correct in 85 % of cases even after 90 % of the prompt is missing, showing over-robustness to underspecification, yet only 54 % react to a single quantifier flip that reverses the task, with reasoning-tuned variants even less sensitive than their bases. Jargon edits lie in between, passing through 56 %. Current LLMs thus blur the line between harmless noise and meaning - changing edits, often treating both as ignorable. Masking salient anchors such as function names can force re - evaluation. We advocate evaluation and training protocols that reward differential sensitivity: stay steady under benign noise but adapt - or refuse - when semantics truly change.
How Many Parameters Does it Take to Change a Light Bulb? Evaluating Performance in Self-Play of Conversational Games as a Function of Model Characteristics
What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.
The Good, The Bad, and The Greedy: Evaluation of LLMs Should Not Ignore Non-Determinism
Current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) often overlook non-determinism, typically focusing on a single output per example. This limits our understanding of LLM performance variability in real-world applications. Our study addresses this issue by exploring key questions about the performance differences between greedy decoding and sampling, identifying benchmarks' consistency regarding non-determinism, and examining unique model behaviors. Through extensive experiments, we observe that greedy decoding generally outperforms sampling methods for most evaluated tasks. We also observe consistent performance across different LLM sizes and alignment methods, noting that alignment can reduce sampling variance. Moreover, our best-of-N sampling approach demonstrates that smaller LLMs can match or surpass larger models such as GPT-4-Turbo, highlighting the untapped potential of smaller LLMs. This research shows the importance of considering non-determinism in LLM evaluations and provides insights for future LLM development and evaluation.
Exploring the Representation of Word Meanings in Context: A Case Study on Homonymy and Synonymy
This paper presents a multilingual study of word meaning representations in context. We assess the ability of both static and contextualized models to adequately represent different lexical-semantic relations, such as homonymy and synonymy. To do so, we created a new multilingual dataset that allows us to perform a controlled evaluation of several factors such as the impact of the surrounding context or the overlap between words, conveying the same or different senses. A systematic assessment on four scenarios shows that the best monolingual models based on Transformers can adequately disambiguate homonyms in context. However, as they rely heavily on context, these models fail at representing words with different senses when occurring in similar sentences. Experiments are performed in Galician, Portuguese, English, and Spanish, and both the dataset (with more than 3,000 evaluation items) and new models are freely released with this study.
Language Models Are Capable of Metacognitive Monitoring and Control of Their Internal Activations
Large language models (LLMs) can sometimes report the strategies they actually use to solve tasks, but they can also fail to do so. This suggests some degree of metacognition -- the capacity to monitor one's own cognitive processes for subsequent reporting and self-control. Metacognitive abilities enhance AI capabilities but raise safety concerns, as models might obscure their internal processes to evade neural-activation-based oversight mechanisms designed to detect harmful behaviors. Given society's increased reliance on these models, it is critical that we understand the limits of their metacognitive abilities, particularly their ability to monitor their internal activations. To address this, we introduce a neuroscience-inspired neurofeedback paradigm designed to quantify the ability of LLMs to explicitly report and control their activation patterns. By presenting models with sentence-label pairs where labels correspond to sentence-elicited internal activations along specific directions in the neural representation space, we demonstrate that LLMs can learn to report and control these activations. The performance varies with several factors: the number of example pairs provided, the semantic interpretability of the target neural direction, and the variance explained by that direction. These results reveal a "metacognitive space" with dimensionality much lower than the model's neural space, suggesting LLMs can monitor only a subset of their neural mechanisms. Our findings provide empirical evidence quantifying metacognitive capabilities in LLMs, with significant implications for AI safety.
Investigating Human-Aligned Large Language Model Uncertainty
Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior of the model. In this work, we investigate a variety of uncertainty measures, in order to identify measures that correlate with human group-level uncertainty. We find that Bayesian measures and a variation on entropy measures, top-k entropy, tend to agree with human behavior as a function of model size. We find that some strong measures decrease in human-similarity with model size, but, by multiple linear regression, we find that combining multiple uncertainty measures provide comparable human-alignment with reduced size-dependency.
The Development of a Comprehensive Spanish Dictionary for Phonetic and Lexical Tagging in Socio-phonetic Research (ESPADA)
Pronunciation dictionaries are an important component in the process of speech forced alignment. The accuracy of these dictionaries has a strong effect on the aligned speech data since they help the mapping between orthographic transcriptions and acoustic signals. In this paper, I present the creation of a comprehensive pronunciation dictionary in Spanish (ESPADA) that can be used in most of the dialect variants of Spanish data. Current dictionaries focus on specific regional variants, but with the flexible nature of our tool, it can be readily applied to capture the most common phonetic differences across major dialectal variants. We propose improvements to current pronunciation dictionaries as well as mapping other relevant annotations such as morphological and lexical information. In terms of size, it is currently the most complete dictionary with more than 628,000 entries, representing words from 16 countries. All entries come with their corresponding pronunciations, morphological and lexical tagging, and other relevant information for phonetic analysis: stress patterns, phonotactics, IPA transcriptions, and more. This aims to equip socio-phonetic researchers with a complete open-source tool that enhances dialectal research within socio-phonetic frameworks in the Spanish language.
Influence Scores at Scale for Efficient Language Data Sampling
Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.
Trans-EnV: A Framework for Evaluating the Linguistic Robustness of LLMs Against English Varieties
Large Language Models (LLMs) are predominantly evaluated on Standard American English (SAE), often overlooking the diversity of global English varieties. This narrow focus may raise fairness concerns as degraded performance on non-standard varieties can lead to unequal benefits for users worldwide. Therefore, it is critical to extensively evaluate the linguistic robustness of LLMs on multiple non-standard English varieties. We introduce Trans-EnV, a framework that automatically transforms SAE datasets into multiple English varieties to evaluate the linguistic robustness. Our framework combines (1) linguistics expert knowledge to curate variety-specific features and transformation guidelines from linguistic literature and corpora, and (2) LLM-based transformations to ensure both linguistic validity and scalability. Using Trans-EnV, we transform six benchmark datasets into 38 English varieties and evaluate seven state-of-the-art LLMs. Our results reveal significant performance disparities, with accuracy decreasing by up to 46.3% on non-standard varieties. These findings highlight the importance of comprehensive linguistic robustness evaluation across diverse English varieties. Each construction of Trans-EnV was validated through rigorous statistical testing and consultation with a researcher in the field of second language acquisition, ensuring its linguistic validity. Our code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/jiyounglee-0523/TransEnV and https://huggingface.co/collections/jiyounglee0523/transenv-681eadb3c0c8cf363b363fb1.
Understanding and Improving Lexical Choice in Non-Autoregressive Translation
Knowledge distillation (KD) is essential for training non-autoregressive translation (NAT) models by reducing the complexity of the raw data with an autoregressive teacher model. In this study, we empirically show that as a side effect of this training, the lexical choice errors on low-frequency words are propagated to the NAT model from the teacher model. To alleviate this problem, we propose to expose the raw data to NAT models to restore the useful information of low-frequency words, which are missed in the distilled data. To this end, we introduce an extra Kullback-Leibler divergence term derived by comparing the lexical choice of NAT model and that embedded in the raw data. Experimental results across language pairs and model architectures demonstrate the effectiveness and universality of the proposed approach. Extensive analyses confirm our claim that our approach improves performance by reducing the lexical choice errors on low-frequency words. Encouragingly, our approach pushes the SOTA NAT performance on the WMT14 English-German and WMT16 Romanian-English datasets up to 27.8 and 33.8 BLEU points, respectively. The source code will be released.
Large Language Model Inference with Lexical Shortlisting
Large language model (LLM) inference is computation and memory intensive, so we adapt lexical shortlisting to it hoping to improve both. While lexical shortlisting is well-explored in tasks like machine translation, it requires modifications before being suitable for LLMs as the intended applications vary significantly. Our work studies two heuristics to shortlist sub-vocabulary at LLM inference time: Unicode-based script filtering and corpus-based selection. We explore different LLM families and sizes, and we find that lexical shortlisting can reduce the memory usage of some models by nearly 50\% and has an upper bound of 25\% improvement in generation speed. In this pilot study, we also identify the drawbacks of such vocabulary selection methods and propose avenues for future research.
Stable Anisotropic Regularization
Given the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), there has been considerable interest in studying the properties of model activations. The literature overwhelmingly agrees that LLM representations are dominated by a few ``outlier dimensions'' with exceedingly high variance and magnitude. Several studies in Natural Language Processing (NLP) have sought to mitigate the impact of such outlier dimensions and force LLMs to be isotropic (i.e., have uniform variance across all dimensions in embedding space). Isotropy is thought to be a desirable property for LLMs that improves model performance and more closely aligns textual representations with human intuition. However, many of the claims regarding isotropy in NLP have been based on the average cosine similarity of embeddings, which has recently been shown to be a flawed measure of isotropy. In this paper, we propose I-STAR: IsoScore*-based STable Anisotropic Regularization, a novel regularization method that can be used to increase or decrease levels of isotropy in embedding space during training. I-STAR uses IsoScore*, the first accurate measure of isotropy that is both differentiable and stable on mini-batch computations. In contrast to several previous works, we find that decreasing isotropy in contextualized embeddings improves performance on the majority of tasks and models considered in this paper.
To Know by the Company Words Keep and What Else Lies in the Vicinity
The development of state-of-the-art (SOTA) Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems has steadily been establishing new techniques to absorb the statistics of linguistic data. These techniques often trace well-known constructs from traditional theories, and we study these connections to close gaps around key NLP methods as a means to orient future work. For this, we introduce an analytic model of the statistics learned by seminal algorithms (including GloVe and Word2Vec), and derive insights for systems that use these algorithms and the statistics of co-occurrence, in general. In this work, we derive -- to the best of our knowledge -- the first known solution to Word2Vec's softmax-optimized, skip-gram algorithm. This result presents exciting potential for future development as a direct solution to a deep learning (DL) language model's (LM's) matrix factorization. However, we use the solution to demonstrate a seemingly-universal existence of a property that word vectors exhibit and which allows for the prophylactic discernment of biases in data -- prior to their absorption by DL models. To qualify our work, we conduct an analysis of independence, i.e., on the density of statistical dependencies in co-occurrence models, which in turn renders insights on the distributional hypothesis' partial fulfillment by co-occurrence statistics.
Inv-Entropy: A Fully Probabilistic Framework for Uncertainty Quantification in Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.
Semantic Volume: Quantifying and Detecting both External and Internal Uncertainty in LLMs
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks by encoding vast amounts of factual knowledge. However, they are still prone to hallucinations, generating incorrect or misleading information, often accompanied by high uncertainty. Existing methods for hallucination detection primarily focus on quantifying internal uncertainty, which arises from missing or conflicting knowledge within the model. However, hallucinations can also stem from external uncertainty, where ambiguous user queries lead to multiple possible interpretations. In this work, we introduce Semantic Volume, a novel mathematical measure for quantifying both external and internal uncertainty in LLMs. Our approach perturbs queries and responses, embeds them in a semantic space, and computes the determinant of the Gram matrix of the embedding vectors, capturing their dispersion as a measure of uncertainty. Our framework provides a generalizable and unsupervised uncertainty detection method without requiring white-box access to LLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on both external and internal uncertainty detection, demonstrating that our Semantic Volume method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both tasks. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights linking our measure to differential entropy, unifying and extending previous sampling-based uncertainty measures such as the semantic entropy. Semantic Volume is shown to be a robust and interpretable approach to improving the reliability of LLMs by systematically detecting uncertainty in both user queries and model responses.
Do Construction Distributions Shape Formal Language Learning In German BabyLMs?
We analyze the influence of utterance-level construction distributions in German child-directed speech on the resulting formal linguistic competence and the underlying learning trajectories for small language models trained on a novel collection of developmentally plausible language data for German. We find that trajectories are surprisingly robust for markedly different distributions of constructions in the training data, which have little effect on final accuracies and almost no effect on global learning trajectories. While syntax learning benefits from more complex utterances, lexical learning culminates in better scores with more fragmentary data. We argue that LMs trained on developmentally plausible data can contribute to debates on how rich or impoverished linguistic stimuli actually are.
The Curious Decline of Linguistic Diversity: Training Language Models on Synthetic Text
This study investigates the consequences of training large language models (LLMs) on synthetic data generated by their predecessors, an increasingly prevalent practice aimed at addressing the limited supply of human-generated training data. Diverging from the usual emphasis on performance metrics, we focus on the impact of this training methodology on linguistic diversity, especially when conducted recursively over time. To assess this, we developed a set of novel metrics targeting lexical, syntactic, and semantic diversity, applying them in recursive fine-tuning experiments across various natural language generation tasks. Our findings reveal a marked decrease in the diversity of the models' outputs through successive iterations. This trend underscores the potential risks of training LLMs on predecessor-generated text, particularly concerning the preservation of linguistic richness. Our study highlights the need for careful consideration of the long-term effects of such training approaches on the linguistic capabilities of LLMs.
Interpretable Word Sense Representations via Definition Generation: The Case of Semantic Change Analysis
We propose using automatically generated natural language definitions of contextualised word usages as interpretable word and word sense representations. Given a collection of usage examples for a target word, and the corresponding data-driven usage clusters (i.e., word senses), a definition is generated for each usage with a specialised Flan-T5 language model, and the most prototypical definition in a usage cluster is chosen as the sense label. We demonstrate how the resulting sense labels can make existing approaches to semantic change analysis more interpretable, and how they can allow users -- historical linguists, lexicographers, or social scientists -- to explore and intuitively explain diachronic trajectories of word meaning. Semantic change analysis is only one of many possible applications of the `definitions as representations' paradigm. Beyond being human-readable, contextualised definitions also outperform token or usage sentence embeddings in word-in-context semantic similarity judgements, making them a new promising type of lexical representation for NLP.
Understanding the Limitations of Variational Mutual Information Estimators
Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.
CALM : A Multi-task Benchmark for Comprehensive Assessment of Language Model Bias
As language models (LMs) become increasingly powerful, it is important to quantify and compare them for sociodemographic bias with potential for harm. Prior bias measurement datasets are sensitive to perturbations in their manually designed templates, therefore unreliable. To achieve reliability, we introduce the Comprehensive Assessment of Language Model bias (CALM), a benchmark dataset to quantify bias in LMs across three tasks. We integrate 16 existing datasets across different domains, such as Wikipedia and news articles, to filter 224 templates from which we construct a dataset of 78,400 examples. We compare the diversity of CALM with prior datasets on metrics such as average semantic similarity, and variation in template length, and test the sensitivity to small perturbations. We show that our dataset is more diverse and reliable than previous datasets, thus better capture the breadth of linguistic variation required to reliably evaluate model bias. We evaluate 20 large language models including six prominent families of LMs such as Llama-2. In two LM series, OPT and Bloom, we found that larger parameter models are more biased than lower parameter models. We found the T0 series of models to be the least biased. Furthermore, we noticed a tradeoff between gender and racial bias with increasing model size in some model series. The code is available at https://github.com/vipulgupta1011/CALM.
Detecting Mode Collapse in Language Models via Narration
No two authors write alike. Personal flourishes invoked in written narratives, from lexicon to rhetorical devices, imply a particular author--what literary theorists label the implied or virtual author; distinct from the real author or narrator of a text. Early large language models trained on unfiltered training sets drawn from a variety of discordant sources yielded incoherent personalities, problematic for conversational tasks but proving useful for sampling literature from multiple perspectives. Successes in alignment research in recent years have allowed researchers to impose subjectively consistent personae on language models via instruction tuning and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), but whether aligned models retain the ability to model an arbitrary virtual author has received little scrutiny. By studying 4,374 stories sampled from three OpenAI language models, we show successive versions of GPT-3 suffer from increasing degrees of "mode collapse" whereby overfitting the model during alignment constrains it from generalizing over authorship: models suffering from mode collapse become unable to assume a multiplicity of perspectives. Our method and results are significant for researchers seeking to employ language models in sociological simulations.
Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models
Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains an open challenge, with limited research on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NLG. Furthermore, existing literature typically assumes white-box access to language models, which is becoming unrealistic either due to the closed-source nature of the latest LLMs or computational constraints. In this work, we investigate UQ in NLG for black-box LLMs. We first differentiate uncertainty vs confidence: the former refers to the "dispersion" of the potential predictions for a fixed input, and the latter refers to the confidence on a particular prediction/generation. We then propose and compare several confidence/uncertainty metrics, applying them to selective NLG where unreliable results could either be ignored or yielded for further assessment. Experiments were carried out with several popular LLMs on question-answering datasets (for evaluation purposes). Results reveal that a simple metric for the semantic dispersion can be a reliable predictor of the quality of LLM responses, providing valuable insights for practitioners on uncertainty management when adopting LLMs. The code to replicate our experiments is available at https://github.com/zlin7/UQ-NLG.
ColBERT's [MASK]-based Query Augmentation: Effects of Quadrupling the Query Input Length
A unique aspect of ColBERT is its use of [MASK] tokens in queries to score documents (query augmentation). Prior work shows [MASK] tokens weighting non-[MASK] query terms, emphasizing certain tokens over others , rather than introducing whole new terms as initially proposed. We begin by demonstrating that a term weighting behavior previously reported for [MASK] tokens in ColBERTv1 holds for ColBERTv2. We then examine the effect of changing the number of [MASK] tokens from zero to up to four times past the query input length used in training, both for first stage retrieval, and for scoring candidates, observing an initial decrease in performance with few [MASK]s, a large increase when enough [MASK]s are added to pad queries to an average length of 32, then a plateau in performance afterwards. Additionally, we compare baseline performance to performance when the query length is extended to 128 tokens, and find that differences are small (e.g., within 1% on various metrics) and generally statistically insignificant, indicating performance does not collapse if ColBERT is presented with more [MASK] tokens than expected.
User Factor Adaptation for User Embedding via Multitask Learning
Language varies across users and their interested fields in social media data: words authored by a user across his/her interests may have different meanings (e.g., cool) or sentiments (e.g., fast). However, most of the existing methods to train user embeddings ignore the variations across user interests, such as product and movie categories (e.g., drama vs. action). In this study, we treat the user interest as domains and empirically examine how the user language can vary across the user factor in three English social media datasets. We then propose a user embedding model to account for the language variability of user interests via a multitask learning framework. The model learns user language and its variations without human supervision. While existing work mainly evaluated the user embedding by extrinsic tasks, we propose an intrinsic evaluation via clustering and evaluate user embeddings by an extrinsic task, text classification. The experiments on the three English-language social media datasets show that our proposed approach can generally outperform baselines via adapting the user factor.
Measuring Human and AI Values based on Generative Psychometrics with Large Language Models
Human values and their measurement are long-standing interdisciplinary inquiry. Recent advances in AI have sparked renewed interest in this area, with large language models (LLMs) emerging as both tools and subjects of value measurement. This work introduces Generative Psychometrics for Values (GPV), an LLM-based, data-driven value measurement paradigm, theoretically grounded in text-revealed selective perceptions. We begin by fine-tuning an LLM for accurate perception-level value measurement and verifying the capability of LLMs to parse texts into perceptions, forming the core of the GPV pipeline. Applying GPV to human-authored blogs, we demonstrate its stability, validity, and superiority over prior psychological tools. Then, extending GPV to LLM value measurement, we advance the current art with 1) a psychometric methodology that measures LLM values based on their scalable and free-form outputs, enabling context-specific measurement; 2) a comparative analysis of measurement paradigms, indicating response biases of prior methods; and 3) an attempt to bridge LLM values and their safety, revealing the predictive power of different value systems and the impacts of various values on LLM safety. Through interdisciplinary efforts, we aim to leverage AI for next-generation psychometrics and psychometrics for value-aligned AI.
VIB is Half Bayes
In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.
LexMatcher: Dictionary-centric Data Collection for LLM-based Machine Translation
The fine-tuning of open-source large language models (LLMs) for machine translation has recently received considerable attention, marking a shift towards data-centric research from traditional neural machine translation. However, the area of data collection for instruction fine-tuning in machine translation remains relatively underexplored. In this paper, we present LexMatcher, a simple yet effective method for data collection that leverages bilingual dictionaries to generate a dataset, the design of which is driven by the coverage of senses found in these dictionaries. The dataset comprises a subset retrieved from an existing corpus and a smaller synthesized subset which supplements the infrequent senses of polysemous words. Utilizing LLaMA2 as our base model, our approach outperforms the established baselines on the WMT2022 test sets and also exhibits significant performance improvements in tasks related to word sense disambiguation and specialized terminology translation. These results underscore the effectiveness of LexMatcher in enhancing LLM-based machine translation.
Torch.manual_seed(3407) is all you need: On the influence of random seeds in deep learning architectures for computer vision
In this paper I investigate the effect of random seed selection on the accuracy when using popular deep learning architectures for computer vision. I scan a large amount of seeds (up to 10^4) on CIFAR 10 and I also scan fewer seeds on Imagenet using pre-trained models to investigate large scale datasets. The conclusions are that even if the variance is not very large, it is surprisingly easy to find an outlier that performs much better or much worse than the average.
Beyond Semantic Entropy: Boosting LLM Uncertainty Quantification with Pairwise Semantic Similarity
Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the semantic cluster level. However, as modern LLMs generate longer one-sentence responses, SE becomes less effective because it overlooks two crucial factors: intra-cluster similarity (the spread within a cluster) and inter-cluster similarity (the distance between clusters). To address these limitations, we propose a simple black-box uncertainty quantification method inspired by nearest neighbor estimates of entropy. Our approach can also be easily extended to white-box settings by incorporating token probabilities. Additionally, we provide theoretical results showing that our method generalizes semantic entropy. Extensive empirical results demonstrate its effectiveness compared to semantic entropy across two recent LLMs (Phi3 and Llama3) and three common text generation tasks: question answering, text summarization, and machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/BigML-CS-UCLA/SNNE.
Look Before You Leap: An Exploratory Study of Uncertainty Measurement for Large Language Models
The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.
Beyond Correctness: Evaluating Subjective Writing Preferences Across Cultures
Current preference learning methods achieve high accuracy on standard benchmarks but exhibit significant performance degradation when objective quality signals are removed. We introduce WritingPreferenceBench, a dataset of 1,800 human-annotated preference pairs (1,200 English, 600 Chinese) across 8 creative writing genres, where responses are matched for objective correctness, factual accuracy, and length. On this benchmark, sequence-based reward models--the standard architecture for RLHF--achieve only 52.7% mean accuracy, while zero-shot language model judges perform at 53.9%. In contrast, generative reward models that produce explicit reasoning chains achieve 81.8% accuracy. We observe high within-model variance across genres: individual models range from 18.2% to 81.8% accuracy across different writing categories, with standard deviations averaging 10.1%. This variance persists regardless of model scale, with 27B parameter models showing no consistent improvement over 8B variants. Our results suggest that current RLHF methods primarily learn to detect objective errors rather than capture subjective quality preferences (e.g., creativity, stylistic flair, and emotional resonance), and that successful preference modeling may require intermediate reasoning representations rather than direct classification.
Likelihood-based Mitigation of Evaluation Bias in Large Language Models
Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences, such as word order and sentence structure. It is therefore possible that there might be a likelihood bias if LLMs are used for evaluation: they might overrate sentences with higher likelihoods while underrating those with lower likelihoods. In this paper, we investigate the presence and impact of likelihood bias in LLM-based evaluators. We also propose a method to mitigate the likelihood bias. Our method utilizes highly biased instances as few-shot examples for in-context learning. Our experiments in evaluating the data-to-text and grammatical error correction tasks reveal that several LLMs we test display a likelihood bias. Furthermore, our proposed method successfully mitigates this bias, also improving evaluation performance (in terms of correlation of models with human scores) significantly.
Retrofitting Word Vectors to Semantic Lexicons
Vector space word representations are learned from distributional information of words in large corpora. Although such statistics are semantically informative, they disregard the valuable information that is contained in semantic lexicons such as WordNet, FrameNet, and the Paraphrase Database. This paper proposes a method for refining vector space representations using relational information from semantic lexicons by encouraging linked words to have similar vector representations, and it makes no assumptions about how the input vectors were constructed. Evaluated on a battery of standard lexical semantic evaluation tasks in several languages, we obtain substantial improvements starting with a variety of word vector models. Our refinement method outperforms prior techniques for incorporating semantic lexicons into the word vector training algorithms.
CORE: Measuring Multi-Agent LLM Interaction Quality under Game-Theoretic Pressures
Game-theoretic interactions between agents with Large Language Models (LLMs) have revealed many emergent capabilities, yet the linguistic diversity of these interactions has not been sufficiently quantified. In this paper, we present the Conversational Robustness Evaluation Score: CORE, a metric to quantify the effectiveness of language use within multi-agent systems across different game-theoretic interactions. CORE integrates measures of cluster entropy, lexical repetition, and semantic similarity, providing a direct lens of dialog quality. We apply CORE to pairwise LLM dialogs across competitive, cooperative, and neutral settings, further grounding our analysis in Zipf's and Heaps' Laws to characterize word frequency distributions and vocabulary growth. Our findings show that cooperative settings exhibit both steeper Zipf distributions and higher Heap exponents, indicating more repetition alongside greater vocabulary expansion. In contrast, competitive interactions display lower Zipf and Heaps exponents, reflecting less repetition and more constrained vocabularies. These results provide new insights into how social incentives influence language adaptation, and highlight CORE as a robust diagnostic for measuring linguistic robustness in multi-agent LLM systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/psyonp/core.
Breaking Focus: Contextual Distraction Curse in Large Language Models
Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized generative systems, achieving excellent performance across diverse domains. Although these models perform well in controlled environments, their real-world applications frequently encounter inputs containing both essential and irrelevant details. Our investigation has revealed a critical vulnerability in LLMs, which we term Contextual Distraction Vulnerability (CDV). This phenomenon arises when models fail to maintain consistent performance on questions modified with semantically coherent but irrelevant context. To systematically investigate this vulnerability, we propose an efficient tree-based search methodology to automatically generate CDV examples. Our approach successfully generates CDV examples across four datasets, causing an average performance degradation of approximately 45% in state-of-the-art LLMs. To address this critical issue, we explore various mitigation strategies and find that post-targeted training approaches can effectively enhance model robustness against contextual distractions. Our findings highlight the fundamental nature of CDV as an ability-level challenge rather than a knowledge-level issue since models demonstrate the necessary knowledge by answering correctly in the absence of distractions. This calls the community's attention to address CDV during model development to ensure reliability. The code is available at https://github.com/wyf23187/LLM_CDV.
