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Jan 9

Regression Discontinuity Design with Distribution-Valued Outcomes

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

Free Discontinuity Regression: With an Application to the Economic Effects of Internet Shutdowns

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 25, 2023

Motion-Guided Latent Diffusion for Temporally Consistent Real-world Video Super-resolution

Real-world low-resolution (LR) videos have diverse and complex degradations, imposing great challenges on video super-resolution (VSR) algorithms to reproduce their high-resolution (HR) counterparts with high quality. Recently, the diffusion models have shown compelling performance in generating realistic details for image restoration tasks. However, the diffusion process has randomness, making it hard to control the contents of restored images. This issue becomes more serious when applying diffusion models to VSR tasks because temporal consistency is crucial to the perceptual quality of videos. In this paper, we propose an effective real-world VSR algorithm by leveraging the strength of pre-trained latent diffusion models. To ensure the content consistency among adjacent frames, we exploit the temporal dynamics in LR videos to guide the diffusion process by optimizing the latent sampling path with a motion-guided loss, ensuring that the generated HR video maintains a coherent and continuous visual flow. To further mitigate the discontinuity of generated details, we insert temporal module to the decoder and fine-tune it with an innovative sequence-oriented loss. The proposed motion-guided latent diffusion (MGLD) based VSR algorithm achieves significantly better perceptual quality than state-of-the-arts on real-world VSR benchmark datasets, validating the effectiveness of the proposed model design and training strategies.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 1, 2023

PRES: Toward Scalable Memory-Based Dynamic Graph Neural Networks

Memory-based Dynamic Graph Neural Networks (MDGNNs) are a family of dynamic graph neural networks that leverage a memory module to extract, distill, and memorize long-term temporal dependencies, leading to superior performance compared to memory-less counterparts. However, training MDGNNs faces the challenge of handling entangled temporal and structural dependencies, requiring sequential and chronological processing of data sequences to capture accurate temporal patterns. During the batch training, the temporal data points within the same batch will be processed in parallel, while their temporal dependencies are neglected. This issue is referred to as temporal discontinuity and restricts the effective temporal batch size, limiting data parallelism and reducing MDGNNs' flexibility in industrial applications. This paper studies the efficient training of MDGNNs at scale, focusing on the temporal discontinuity in training MDGNNs with large temporal batch sizes. We first conduct a theoretical study on the impact of temporal batch size on the convergence of MDGNN training. Based on the analysis, we propose PRES, an iterative prediction-correction scheme combined with a memory coherence learning objective to mitigate the effect of temporal discontinuity, enabling MDGNNs to be trained with significantly larger temporal batches without sacrificing generalization performance. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach enables up to a 4x larger temporal batch (3.4x speed-up) during MDGNN training.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 5, 2024

The SAM2-to-SAM3 Gap in the Segment Anything Model Family: Why Prompt-Based Expertise Fails in Concept-Driven Image Segmentation

This paper investigates the fundamental discontinuity between the latest two Segment Anything Models: SAM2 and SAM3. We explain why the expertise in prompt-based segmentation of SAM2 does not transfer to the multimodal concept-driven paradigm of SAM3. SAM2 operates through spatial prompts points, boxes, and masks yielding purely geometric and temporal segmentation. In contrast, SAM3 introduces a unified vision-language architecture capable of open-vocabulary reasoning, semantic grounding, contrastive alignment, and exemplar-based concept understanding. We structure this analysis through five core components: (1) a Conceptual Break Between Prompt-Based and Concept-Based Segmentation, contrasting spatial prompt semantics of SAM2 with multimodal fusion and text-conditioned mask generation of SAM3; (2) Architectural Divergence, detailing pure vision-temporal design of SAM2 versus integration of vision-language encoders, geometry and exemplar encoders, fusion modules, DETR-style decoders, object queries, and ambiguity-handling via Mixture-of-Experts in SAM3; (3) Dataset and Annotation Differences, contrasting SA-V video masks with multimodal concept-annotated corpora of SAM3; (4) Training and Hyperparameter Distinctions, showing why SAM2 optimization knowledge does not apply to SAM3; and (5) Evaluation, Metrics, and Failure Modes, outlining the transition from geometric IoU metrics to semantic, open-vocabulary evaluation. Together, these analyses establish SAM3 as a new class of segmentation foundation model and chart future directions for the emerging concept-driven segmentation era.

cornell Cornell University
·
Dec 4, 2025 2

DyST-XL: Dynamic Layout Planning and Content Control for Compositional Text-to-Video Generation

Compositional text-to-video generation, which requires synthesizing dynamic scenes with multiple interacting entities and precise spatial-temporal relationships, remains a critical challenge for diffusion-based models. Existing methods struggle with layout discontinuity, entity identity drift, and implausible interaction dynamics due to unconstrained cross-attention mechanisms and inadequate physics-aware reasoning. To address these limitations, we propose DyST-XL, a training-free framework that enhances off-the-shelf text-to-video models (e.g., CogVideoX-5B) through frame-aware control. DyST-XL integrates three key innovations: (1) A Dynamic Layout Planner that leverages large language models (LLMs) to parse input prompts into entity-attribute graphs and generates physics-aware keyframe layouts, with intermediate frames interpolated via trajectory optimization; (2) A Dual-Prompt Controlled Attention Mechanism that enforces localized text-video alignment through frame-aware attention masking, achieving precise control over individual entities; and (3) An Entity-Consistency Constraint strategy that propagates first-frame feature embeddings to subsequent frames during denoising, preserving object identity without manual annotation. Experiments demonstrate that DyST-XL excels in compositional text-to-video generation, significantly improving performance on complex prompts and bridging a crucial gap in training-free video synthesis. The code is released in https://github.com/XiaoBuL/DyST-XL.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 21, 2025

Inherent Challenges of Post-Hoc Membership Inference for Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often trained on vast amounts of undisclosed data, motivating the development of post-hoc Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) to gain insight into their training data composition. However, in this paper, we identify inherent challenges in post-hoc MIA evaluation due to potential distribution shifts between collected member and non-member datasets. Using a simple bag-of-words classifier, we demonstrate that datasets used in recent post-hoc MIAs suffer from significant distribution shifts, in some cases achieving near-perfect distinction between members and non-members. This implies that previously reported high MIA performance may be largely attributable to these shifts rather than model memorization. We confirm that randomized, controlled setups eliminate such shifts and thus enable the development and fair evaluation of new MIAs. However, we note that such randomized setups are rarely available for the latest LLMs, making post-hoc data collection still required to infer membership for real-world LLMs. As a potential solution, we propose a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) approach for post-hoc data collection, which substantially mitigates distribution shifts. Evaluating various MIA methods on this RDD setup yields performance barely above random guessing, in stark contrast to previously reported results. Overall, our findings highlight the challenges in accurately measuring LLM memorization and the need for careful experimental design in (post-hoc) membership inference tasks.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 25, 2024

Learning Human Skill Generators at Key-Step Levels

We are committed to learning human skill generators at key-step levels. The generation of skills is a challenging endeavor, but its successful implementation could greatly facilitate human skill learning and provide more experience for embodied intelligence. Although current video generation models can synthesis simple and atomic human operations, they struggle with human skills due to their complex procedure process. Human skills involve multi-step, long-duration actions and complex scene transitions, so the existing naive auto-regressive methods for synthesizing long videos cannot generate human skills. To address this, we propose a novel task, the Key-step Skill Generation (KS-Gen), aimed at reducing the complexity of generating human skill videos. Given the initial state and a skill description, the task is to generate video clips of key steps to complete the skill, rather than a full-length video. To support this task, we introduce a carefully curated dataset and define multiple evaluation metrics to assess performance. Considering the complexity of KS-Gen, we propose a new framework for this task. First, a multimodal large language model (MLLM) generates descriptions for key steps using retrieval argument. Subsequently, we use a Key-step Image Generator (KIG) to address the discontinuity between key steps in skill videos. Finally, a video generation model uses these descriptions and key-step images to generate video clips of the key steps with high temporal consistency. We offer a detailed analysis of the results, hoping to provide more insights on human skill generation. All models and data are available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/KS-Gen.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 12, 2025

SPOCKMIP: Segmentation of Vessels in MRAs with Enhanced Continuity using Maximum Intensity Projection as Loss

Identification of vessel structures of different sizes in biomedical images is crucial in the diagnosis of many neurodegenerative diseases. However, the sparsity of good-quality annotations of such images makes the task of vessel segmentation challenging. Deep learning offers an efficient way to segment vessels of different sizes by learning their high-level feature representations and the spatial continuity of such features across dimensions. Semi-supervised patch-based approaches have been effective in identifying small vessels of one to two voxels in diameter. This study focuses on improving the segmentation quality by considering the spatial correlation of the features using the Maximum Intensity Projection~(MIP) as an additional loss criterion. Two methods are proposed with the incorporation of MIPs of label segmentation on the single~(z-axis) and multiple perceivable axes of the 3D volume. The proposed MIP-based methods produce segmentations with improved vessel continuity, which is evident in visual examinations of ROIs. Patch-based training is improved by introducing an additional loss term, MIP loss, to penalise the predicted discontinuity of vessels. A training set of 14 volumes is selected from the StudyForrest dataset comprising of 18 7-Tesla 3D Time-of-Flight~(ToF) Magnetic Resonance Angiography (MRA) images. The generalisation performance of the method is evaluated using the other unseen volumes in the dataset. It is observed that the proposed method with multi-axes MIP loss produces better quality segmentations with a median Dice of 80.245 pm 0.129. Also, the method with single-axis MIP loss produces segmentations with a median Dice of 79.749 pm 0.109. Furthermore, a visual comparison of the ROIs in the predicted segmentation reveals a significant improvement in the continuity of the vessels when MIP loss is incorporated into training.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 11, 2024

FastSwitch: Optimizing Context Switching Efficiency in Fairness-aware Large Language Model Serving

Serving numerous users and requests concurrently requires good fairness in Large Language Models (LLMs) serving system. This ensures that, at the same cost, the system can meet the Service Level Objectives (SLOs) of more users , such as time to first token (TTFT) and time between tokens (TBT), rather than allowing a few users to experience performance far exceeding the SLOs. To achieve better fairness, the preemption-based scheduling policy dynamically adjusts the priority of each request to maintain balance during runtime. However, existing systems tend to overly prioritize throughput, overlooking the overhead caused by preemption-induced context switching, which is crucial for maintaining fairness through priority adjustments. In this work, we identify three main challenges that result in this overhead. 1) Inadequate I/O utilization. 2) GPU idleness. 3) Unnecessary I/O transmission during multi-turn conversations. Our key insight is that the block-based KV cache memory policy in existing systems, while achieving near-zero memory waste, leads to discontinuity and insufficient granularity in the KV cache memory. To respond, we introduce FastSwitch, a fairness-aware serving system that not only aligns with existing KV cache memory allocation policy but also mitigates context switching overhead. Our evaluation shows that FastSwitch outperforms the state-of-the-art LLM serving system vLLM with speedups of 1.4-11.2x across different tail TTFT and TBT.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 27, 2024

Enabling Auditory Large Language Models for Automatic Speech Quality Evaluation

Speech quality assessment typically requires evaluating audio from multiple aspects, such as mean opinion score (MOS) and speaker similarity (SIM) \etc., which can be challenging to cover using one small model designed for a single task. In this paper, we propose leveraging recently introduced auditory large language models (LLMs) for automatic speech quality assessment. By employing task-specific prompts, auditory LLMs are finetuned to predict MOS, SIM and A/B testing results, which are commonly used for evaluating text-to-speech systems. Additionally, the finetuned auditory LLM is able to generate natural language descriptions assessing aspects like noisiness, distortion, discontinuity, and overall quality, providing more interpretable outputs. Extensive experiments have been performed on the NISQA, BVCC, SOMOS and VoxSim speech quality datasets, using open-source auditory LLMs such as SALMONN, Qwen-Audio, and Qwen2-Audio. For the natural language descriptions task, a commercial model Google Gemini 1.5 Pro is also evaluated. The results demonstrate that auditory LLMs achieve competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art task-specific small models in predicting MOS and SIM, while also delivering promising results in A/B testing and natural language descriptions. Our data processing scripts and finetuned model checkpoints can be found at https://github.com/bytedance/SALMONN.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 25, 2024