Peak NBA Statline Projection (PNSP) is a model used to project NBA success for college basketball players based upon their individual and team college basketball statistics, physical measurements, high school scouting rankings, and college basketball experience. The PNSP model returns a single rating value from 0 to 100. A higher rating value indicates a “better” NBA prospect. We provide a more detailed article outlining how PNSP is formulated here. Below are a few highlights of PNSP’s ratings for the 2017 NBA Draft Class,

Highlights

First and foremost, it is important to remember that a player’s PNSP score is based on the distribution of players within the same position. Ranking of players by PNSP across different positions is a different use than originally intended. For example, saying Jonathan Isaac is a “better” prospect than Markelle Fultz because his 97.1 PNSP rating is higher than Fultz’s 96.5 is not necessarily true because they play different positions.

Anyway, PNSP’s 2017 top NBA Draft prospect is Jonathan Isaac. Isaac has ideal physical tools, an overall versatile game, and elite defensive ability at the wing position, which make him PNSP’s top prospect in 2017 Draft. Not so far behind are Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and surprisingly Caleb Swanigan. Swanigan posted gaudy numbers, averaging 18.5 points per game, 12.5 rebounds per game, 3.0 assists per game, and shot an impressive 44.7% from 3 on 85 attempts. While Swanigan’s college statistics were impressive, it is tough to see him fitting defensively in the modern day NBA. PNSP also strongly liked Henry Ellenson last year, so it’s fair to say PNSP might not have fully “learned” what constitutes a modern-day NBA big.

One consensus top prospect missing from the top 10 is Josh Jackson. PNSP heavily weights shooting ability, and thus Josh Jackson’s 56.6% college free throw percentage severely limits his NBA potential from PNSP’s perspective. Jackson still receives a solid rating at 72.0, but he tumbles down the board to 17, partially due to the fact that PNSP rates this draft class highly as a whole: 4 prospects score higher than 90, and 13 rated higher than 80 (16% of draft-eligible players)! Compare that to last year’s draft class, in which PNSP rated only 4 players above 80 (9% of drafted players).

Over the next couple of days, we will release our NBA Role Probability Model and Similarity Scores for 2017 Draft prospects. Following that, we will break down some of the top prospects by piecing together our 3 components to better assess each prospect, and ultimately create a consensus draft board.

Rank Player School PNSP 1 Jonathan Isaac Florida State 97.1 2 Markelle Fultz Washington 96.5 3 Caleb Swanigan Purdue 93.8 4 Lonzo Ball UCLA 91.0 5 Dennis Smith NC State 89.4 6 Jayson Tatum Duke 88.6 7 Zach Collins Gonzaga 83.6 8 De'Aaron Fox Kentucky 83.2 9 Jordan Bell Oregon 83.0 10 TJ Leaf UCLA 82.8 11 Lauri Markkanen Arizona 81.7 12 John Collins Wake Forest 81.4 13 Sindarius Thornwell South Carolina 80.0 14 Donovan Mitchell Louisville 78.3 15 Malik Monk Kentucky 77.1 16 Josh Jackson Kansas 72.0 17 Aaron Holiday UCLA 69.4 18 Josh Hart Villanova 68.4 19 Omer Yurtseven NC State 67.4 20 Jake Wiley Eastern Washington 65.9 21 Dedric Lawson Memphis 65.5 22 Alec Peters Valparaiso 64.3 23 Justin Patton Creighton 63.7 24 Derrick White Colorado 62.8 25 Ike Anigbogu UCLA 62.7 26 Thomas Bryant Indiana 62.2 27 L.J. Peak Georgetown 61.8 28 Cameron Oliver Nevada 60.0 29 Chris Boucher Oregon 59.7 30 Ivan Rabb California 58.8 31 Thomas Welsh UCLA 58.7 32 Melo Trimble Maryland 57.6 33 Kennedy Meeks UNC 57.5 34 Johnathan Motley Baylor 56.9 35 Nigel Williams-Goss Gonzaga 56.7 37 Frank Mason Kansas 56.6 36 Edrice Adebayo Kentucky 56.3 37 Rawle Alkins Arizona 55.5 38 Kadeem Allen Arizona 53.9 39 Jacob Evans Cincinnati 53.6 40 Jawun Evans Oklahoma State 52.6 41 Frank Jackson Duke 51.8 42 Luke Kennard Duke 48.4 43 OG Anunoby Indiana 48.2 44 Tony Bradley Oregon 47.8 45 Harry Giles Duke 46.7 46 Jarrett Allen Texas 46.4 47 D.J. Wilson Michigan 45.5 48 Tyler Lydon Syracuse 45.3 49 Semi Ojeleye SMU 44.6 50 Kyle Kuzma Utah 44.0 51 Malcolm Hill Illinois 43.2 52 Justin Jackson UNC 42.8 53 Drew Eubanks Oregon State 42.0 54 Dillon Brooks Oregon 41.6 55 Joel Berry UNC 41.5 56 P.J. Dozier South Carolina 38.2 57 Isaac Humphries Kentucky 36.0 58 Monte Morris Iowa State 32.7 59 Kobi Simmons Arizona 31.3 60 Deng Adel Louisville 30.3 61 Wesley Iwundu Kansas State 29.3 62 Luke Kornet Vanderbilt 25.4 63 Chandler Hutchison Florida 25.4 64 Isaiah Briscoe Kentucky 24.9 65 Devin Robinson Florida 24.3 66 Tacko Fall UCF 24.1 67 Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk Kansas 22.0 68 Grayson Allen Duke 21.9 69 V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 16.9 70 Andrew White Syracuse 15.7 71 Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 14.0 72 Damyean Dotson Houston 10.3 73 Antonius Cleveland SE Missouri 9.6 74 Jaron Blossomgame Clemson 8.1 75 Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 7.5 76 Tyler Dorsey Oregon 7.0 78 Vitto Brown Wisconsin 6.2 79 Isaiah Hicks UNC 5.7 80 Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 3.1

*Data retrieved from Basketball Reference, Sports Reference and DraftExpress.

Written by Marc Richards and Jack Werner.