When SAV’s now widely circulated documentary Are You Ready For The Moombah? dropped last week on Thanksgiving Day, most spoke of how the film provided a ton of insight from artists you’d expect, and others that you wouldn’t. Even the most seasoned moombahtonistas could find something new to take away. Between watching the mini-doc and my conversation with the director himself, I had a bit of an epiphany.

There really isn’t anything else quite like moombahton.

It’s dance music’s punk rock — raw, unpolished, and underground, yet inherent with a sex appeal that punk was unable to find. It’s as much an identity as it is a genre, with artists that personify it and fans who would die over it.

But what truly makes moombahton unique is that it’s the first subgenre to truly take off in this digital age.

While genres before it spawned and matured in dimly lit clubs and sweaty basement venues, moombah stands as a model of what we should expect in era that is defined by Soundcloud, Facebook, and Twitter where we can share sounds in an instant and our opinion (unfortunately) even faster. Where genres like dubstep, UK garage, tech house were built over years, moombahton broke through in just one. Until the next major evolution in technology the internet is going to be, for better or worse, the incubator for subgenres moving forward.

What have we learned? So far, moombahton’s unprecedented growth and marked decline have mimicked the path of Gartner’s Hype Cycle. And for a genre with such a inherent relationship with the internet, is it all that surprising?

Right off the bat, there was unsustainable popularity. It was launching relative unknowns into superstardom (read: Dillon Francis), finding industry heavyweights as prominent advocates (see: Diplo), and creating cult heroes among the genre’s biggest fans (Who is, Munchi, Alex?). Everyone wanted to play with the genre, even if it was only the unusual tempo which had previously been reserved for glitch hop or midtempo disco tunes. It really didn’t matter what it sounded like — if it was around 108 bpm it was going to be called moombahton, and fans ate. it. up.

Hello Gartner’s “Peak of Inflated Expectations”.

Of course the key word there is “unsustainable”. Hardcore moombahton fans earnestly believed this golden age would never end. But it would just be impossible for the genre to continue at that rate, otherwise it was going to become self-aware and take over the world. Literally. Rap game Napoleon. A regression towards the mean was to be expected, and despite how much fans tried to scream and kick and shout, it still happened.

Is that discouraging? A little bit. Is it catastrophic? It shouldn’t be.

Unfortunately the internet speaks a very polarized language, where “regression to the mean” apparently translated to “moombahton is dead”. And frankly, the people declaring that the genre had met its maker were the people who cared about the genre the most. When you have tastemakers overreacting, how are casual fans supposed to react?

And so here we are, sitting in the “Trough of Disillusionment”.

Which makes the timing of SAV’s film so appropriate. In my humble opinion, the worst is behind us. Thus far moombahton has stayed true to Gartner’s Hype Cycle, and my expectation is that it will continue to follow it. Right now, some of the best moombah that has come out in a while is being released by guys like Locomotive, Happy Colors, Kapo, Hoodie, Corrupted Data and countless others. The ironic and satirical Moombahton Is Dead EP that Munchi helped compile was golden. There is a second wind approaching that’s being driven by a renaissance of the genre’s roots.

So, again — with moombahton as the model — what have we learned?

1. New genres will experience a period of insane popularity built on a foundation of unsustainable hype over a remarkably short span of time.

2. Eventually, the genre will come crashing down to earth.

3. This doesn’t mean the genre has died, but it’ll likely hit its lowest point while asshats on the internet argue about it.

4. Once the dust settles, it will likely stabilize to the mean — what we should expect the genre’s actual popularity to be.

While this volatility is exciting, it’s concerning when you take into consideration the kind of money that’s starting to be hedged in this animal. However, if the “Moombahton Model” stands to be true, at least we can begin to anticipate these fluctuations. Of course, we should be wary about small sample sizes, as only one example doesn’t equal the rule. If only there was another case we can keep an eye on as well…

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