Daily odds of pregnancy miscarriage

This can be an upsetting topic, but after passing a pregnancy test and facing so much uncertainty about my future I just wanted something to make me feel a little more... in control. For me, that's statistics. So based on some human embryo survival rates - overall and at 6, 8, and 10 weeks, I did some curve matching to calculate the risk of miscarriage at each day of an early pregnancy. The data here is based on a study of 600 women who were tested daily for pregnancy while trying to conceive, so early pregnancies were all evaluated for survival rate. The numbers are an estimate, but they're something.

The following dates are based on an estimated LMP of December 29th, 2019.

Change LMP: Month Day Year

Date Progress Overall probability of miscarriage Sunday January 19th, 2020 3W, 0D 33% Monday January 20th, 2020 3W, 1D 32.9% Tuesday January 21st, 2020 3W, 2D 32.6% Wednesday January 22nd, 2020 3W, 3D 32% Thursday January 23rd, 2020 3W, 4D 31.3% Friday January 24th, 2020 3W, 5D 30.3% Saturday January 25th, 2020 3W, 6D 29.2% Sunday January 26th, 2020 4W, 0D 28% Monday January 27th, 2020 4W, 1D 26.6% Tuesday January 28th, 2020 4W, 2D 25.2% Wednesday January 29th, 2020 4W, 3D 23.6% Thursday January 30th, 2020 4W, 4D 22.1% Friday January 31st, 2020 4W, 5D 20.5% Saturday February 1st, 2020 4W, 6D 18.9% Sunday February 2nd, 2020 5W, 0D 17.3% Monday February 3rd, 2020 5W, 1D 15.8% Tuesday February 4th, 2020 5W, 2D 14.4% Wednesday February 5th, 2020 5W, 3D 13% Thursday February 6th, 2020 5W, 4D 11.7% Friday February 7th, 2020 5W, 5D 10.5% Saturday February 8th, 2020 5W, 6D 9.4% Sunday February 9th, 2020 6W, 0D 8.4% Monday February 10th, 2020 6W, 1D 7.5% Tuesday February 11th, 2020 6W, 2D 6.6% Wednesday February 12th, 2020 6W, 3D 5.9% Thursday February 13th, 2020 6W, 4D 5.3% Friday February 14th, 2020 6W, 5D 4.7% Saturday February 15th, 2020 6W, 6D 4.3% Sunday February 16th, 2020 7W, 0D 3.9% Monday February 17th, 2020 7W, 1D 3.5% Tuesday February 18th, 2020 7W, 2D 3.2% Wednesday February 19th, 2020 7W, 3D 3% Thursday February 20th, 2020 7W, 4D 2.8% Friday February 21st, 2020 7W, 5D 2.6% Saturday February 22nd, 2020 7W, 6D 2.5% Sunday February 23rd, 2020 8W, 0D 2.4% Monday February 24th, 2020 8W, 1D 2.3% Tuesday February 25th, 2020 8W, 2D 2.2% Wednesday February 26th, 2020 8W, 3D 2.2% Thursday February 27th, 2020 8W, 4D 2.1% Friday February 28th, 2020 8W, 5D 2.1% Saturday February 29th, 2020 8W, 6D 2.1% Sunday March 1st, 2020 9W, 0D 2.1% Monday March 2nd, 2020 9W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 3rd, 2020 9W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 4th, 2020 9W, 3D 2% Thursday March 5th, 2020 9W, 4D 2% Friday March 6th, 2020 9W, 5D 2% Saturday March 7th, 2020 9W, 6D 2% Sunday March 8th, 2020 10W, 0D 2% Monday March 9th, 2020 10W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 10th, 2020 10W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 11th, 2020 10W, 3D 2% Thursday March 12th, 2020 10W, 4D 2% Friday March 13th, 2020 10W, 5D 2% Saturday March 14th, 2020 10W, 6D 2% Sunday March 15th, 2020 11W, 0D 2% Monday March 16th, 2020 11W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 17th, 2020 11W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 18th, 2020 11W, 3D 2% Thursday March 19th, 2020 11W, 4D 2% Friday March 20th, 2020 11W, 5D 2% Saturday March 21st, 2020 11W, 6D 2% Sunday March 22nd, 2020 12W, 0D 2% Monday March 23rd, 2020 12W, 1D 2% Tuesday March 24th, 2020 12W, 2D 2% Wednesday March 25th, 2020 12W, 3D 2% Thursday March 26th, 2020 12W, 4D 2% Friday March 27th, 2020 12W, 5D 2% Saturday March 28th, 2020 12W, 6D 2%

Future probability of miscarriage at a given day

Notes and disclaimers

All numbers are estimates. If you have better research, drop me an e-mail (spacefem@spacefem.com).

I used information from two studies to make my assumptions: Wilcox AJ, Baird DD, Weinberg CR (1999). "Time of implantation of the conceptus and loss of pregnancy." and Wang X, Chen C, Wang L, Chen D, Guang W, French J (2003). "Conception, early pregnancy loss, and time to clinical pregnancy: a population-based prospective study.". I was not able to obtain full access to the second one, but based on citations I believe I had the numbers I needed for this.

The studies analyzed women who were trying to conceive for the first time.

There is a page of good studies here: https://sites.google.com/site/miscarriageresearch/miscarriage-general that compares risks based on age, whether you've heard a heartbeat, previous miscarriage, and hosts of other factors.

Charts are generated by flot.