MP

Carmel Tebbutt (ALP) since a 2005 by-election, having previously served in the Legislative Council. Deputy Premier and Minister for Health.

Profile

Marrickville is an inner-western suburban electorate covering the triangle of land between the Illawarra rail line, Parramatta Road and the old goods line (soon to be tram line) running north from Dulwich Hill to Glebe Island. The electorate includes the suburbs of Newtown, Enmore, Camperdown, Stanmore, Petersham, Dulwich Hill and Marrickville, as well as parts of Erskineville, the main campus of Sydney University and those last parts of Darlington that haven't been swallowed by the University.

Background

Marrickville has existed as an electorate since 1894, though is disappeared briefly between 1920 and 1927 during the state's experiment with proportional representation. Marrickville was first won by Labor in 1910 and had only five MPs in the 94 years since 1917, much of that time in the hands of Carlo Camillo Lazzarini, first elected in 1917 and serving in parliament until his death in 1952. Another former member is Dr Andrew Refshauge, who was elected to and retired from Parliament on the same day as Bob Carr, and served as his Deputy for 17 years 1988-2005. Marrickville had always been a safe Labor seat, but changing demographics in recent years has created new left parties to challenge Labor as the Liberal vote has withered. Refshauge was first forced into a tight contest in 1995 by the newly formed No Aircraft Noise party as the Liberal Party slipped to third. The Liberals were passed on preferences by the Greens in 1999, and finished a distant third in both 2003 and 2007, declining to even nominate a candidate for the 2005 by-election when Carmel Tebbutt was first elected. Labor's lead over the Greens has continued to shrink over the last decade.

Issues and Polls

A Galaxy poll published two weeks before the election reported the Greens on 44%, Labor 33%, the Liberals third on 16% with two-thirds of Liberal voters likely to exhaust their preferences. After preferences the Greens polled 57% of the 2-candidate preferred vote, a swing on 14% since 2007.

Notes on Margin

On a 2-party preferred basis, the Labor margin is an ultra-safe 31.2% versus the liberal Party.

2006 Census Profile

Marrickville has the state's third lowest proportion of persons aged 5-14 (7.0%), and the fourth highest proportion aged 25-64 (63.3%). As the electorate includes Sydney University, it has the highest proportion of residents attending a tertiary institution (12.6%). Reflecting its cluster of train lines and bus routes, Marrickville has the state's highest rate of public transport usage (33.8%). It also has the highest proportion of people who state they have no religion (26.2%) and the fifth lowest proportion of Christians (47.6%).

Assessment