Which teams will be most affected by the updated Homegrown rule?

With the home-grown rules set to change Nihad takes a look at what players some teams might have to let go of



On March 24th 2015 the FA updated the rule on home grown players in the BPL. As you all probably already know, a rule was introduced in 2010 where you needed at least eight players which were registered domestically for a minimum of three seasons prior to their 21st birthday. Under this new rule, that mark of 21 years was reduced to 18 so some clubs might be pressured to lose players that they underuse, to make room for home grown players which are a necessity. This means that out of 25 players which are registered for the season, at least eight need to be registered domestically when they were 15, and some clubs might have issues with that. I will try and analyse these clubs and which non-home grown players I feel should be dropped from their squads.



So the rules that were updated are stated here:



1) Players will have to be with their club since the age of 15 to be qualified as home-grown



2) Non-home grown players in each squad is to be reduced from 17 to 13



3) At least two of eight players registered as home-grown must be club trained



Under these rules, right now four clubs would have to release foreign players and they are: Manchester City (six players), Arsenal (four), Tottenham Hotspur (four) and Chelsea (three). With reference to their squads, I will try and see which players are most likely to be sold in the summer so the quota of 13 foreign players could be matched by the start of 2015-'16 campaign.



Manchester City – Six players to be released or sold







Players available to be sold: Sergio Aguero, Wilfried Bony, Willy Caballero, Martin Demichelis, Edin Dzeko, Fernando, Fernandinho, Stevan Jovetic, Aleksandar Kolarov, Vincent Kompany, Eliaquim Mangala, Samir Nasri, Jesus Navas, Bacary Sagna, David Silva, Yaya Toure, Gael Clichy, Dedryck Boyata and Pablo Zabaleta.



Players I think will be sold: Edin Dzeko, Stevan Jovetic, Martin Demichelis, Aleksandar Kolarov, Dedryck Boyata and Bacary Sagna.



So City, no surprise, has the biggest number of foreign players currently and they will have to offload six of them, probably by selling them or even releasing them if there are no buyers. Edin Dzeko is my first choice as the Bosnian player has not performed this year, scoring just four goals. Even if he starts playing good football now when the season is closing, a part of the season where he usually excels, I don't see him making the cut next to Sergio Kun Aguero and the new Ivory Coast signing Wilfried Bony. Same goes for Montenegrin Stevan Jovetic who is very injury prone which has ruined his City career. Martin Demichelis is a very experienced player who was good this season when he got the chance, but he is too old and there are younger and better players in front of him who are just waiting for the chance. Aleksandar Kolarov is also getting up there in age and I do not believe he is of enough quality for a team with champion-like aspirations. Boyata and Sagna are two right back who cannot catch a game next to the workhorse Argentinian Pablo Zabaleta and I believe that they will be seen as players who will be expendable for the Manchester side. However, my choice is more of a “who is left after the very important players are put aside” and these six players, along with another possible choice Willy Caballero, are the most likely to be sold by City in the summer.



Tottenham Hotspur – Four players to be released or sold



Players available to be sold: Emmanuel Adebayor, Etienne Capoue, Cristian Ceballos, Nacer Chadli, Vlad Chiriches, Moussa Dembele, Christian Eriksen, Federico Fazio, Brad Friedel, Younes Kaboul, Erik Lamela, Hugo Lloris, Paulinho, Roberto Soldado, Benjamin Stambouli, Jan Vertonghen and Michel Vorm.



Players I think will be sold: Brad Friedel, Emmanuel Adebayor, Cristian Ceballos and Vlad Chiriches.



Spurs need to sell/release four players and I think that obvious choices are the four players listed above. Others serve a bigger purpose in the squad so if there was a do-or-die decision where you needed to release them, I believe that these four players would not stay on the roster.



Starting with Brad Friedel he is approaching 44 and he is currently the third goalkeeper behind Lloris and Vorm. Emmanuel Adebayor in my opinion is way past his prime, so this Togolese striker will probably be sold to a smaller club in search of an experienced striker. Cristian Ceballos is a former Barcelona youth player but this player who is currently on loan in Portuguese club Arouca, will not make the cut. He is an exciting prospect but the wait for his potential to fulfil is probably not worth cutting someone who has an important role right now in the squad. Romanian centre-back Vlad Chiriches did not find his game in North London as speculation rose even before this rule was being enforced that his time in Spurs is just about done. Again, three very obvious choices with the last one, Cristian Ceballos being someone Spurs fans have not seen yet in action to the fullest and it is a shame that he could be leaving the club even before getting his chance to shine.



Arsenal FC – Four players to be released or sold



Players available to be sold: Mikel Arteta, Santi Cazorla, Mathieu Debuchy, Abou Diaby, Mathieu Flamini, Gabriel, Olivier Giroud, Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal, David Ospina, Mesut Ozil, Tomas Rosicky, Alexis Sanchez, Wojciech Szczęsny, Francis Coquelin and Damian Martinez



Players I think could be sold: Abou Diaby, Damian Martinez, Mathieu Debuchy and Mathieu Flamini



Arsenal have bought a lot of English players in the last couple of years, as if they knew that this kind of rule would be implemented, however their core set of players is still made up of foreigners. However, the four players above most likely will not be in Arsene Wenger's squad next year. Abou Diaby is one of the saddest stories in the BPL. This central midfielder had everything necessary to be better than players like Yaya Toure but constant injuries kept him off the field, as he announced his retirement from professional football this year. He will most likely be given a position in Arsenal, but nothing is official yet. Damian Martinez left no significant trace in North London and this 22-year-old Argentinian goalkeeper will not be staying in the team he has no realistic chance of playing in. Mathieu Debuchy just came from Newcastle this season but has had two huge injuries slidelining him for multiple months, along with his age this could make Arsenal sell him. Also there is huge competition for his spot with the likes of Chambers, Bellerin and Jenkinson who will be back from loan. The second Mathieu in the squad, Flamini, has not enjoyed the best of times in Arsenal this year and in a packed midfield with the likes of Ozil, Cazorla, Arteta, Coquelin and such, he is always seen as someone who will be left out, unfortunately for him. I think these are reasonable picks with reference to their age and overall impact they made on the field for the Gunners.



Chelsea – Three players to be released or sold



Players available to be sold: Cesar Azpilicueta, Petr Cech, Diego Costa, Thibaut Courtois, Juan Cuadrado, Didier Drogba, Eden Hazard, Branislav Ivanovic, Filipe Luis, Nemanja Matic, John Obi Mikel, Oscar, Ramires, Loic Remy, Willian and Cesc Fabregas



Players I think will be sold: Petr Cech, Didier Drogba and Filipe Luis



Now for this group of players I actually had a dilemma of who to predict will be cut from the squad. Although John Obi Mikel has not proven much this season I believe that Cech and Luis are really unhappy having had no playing time behind Courtois and Azpilicueta respectively, so their future at CFC is really questionable. For the last player I had a choice between either Drogba or Mikel and although what I said about Mikel stands, Drogba is really up there in age and he could even consider retirement. While the nine year younger defensive midfielder still has something to give Mourinho we all know that the special one likes a good and strong defensive mid who can destroy opponents' plays and with Matic and Mikel he as an excellent pairing there. Unfortunately Drogba has given all he has to football and it is maybe time for him to leave the sport in which he will be considered one of the best strikers of all time.



Now these picks are what I believe could be done realistically, but there is also chance of some transfers happening. Arsenal could cash in on Santi Cazorla's amazing season, Chelsea could cash in on Hazard if the offer is good enough and Spurs might do what Spurs do and sell one of their best players, someone like Eriksen if the offer is good enough.



I have eliminated those possibilities from this analysis since there is a lot of time until the summer and a lot of things could change, so I did not want to speculate about some big sales by these four clubs.



Agree with my picks, or don't agree? Leave it in the comments down below: