WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers have yet to slash jobs in any great number and the mighty consumer hasn’t forgotten Christmas, but Corporate America is retrenching in anticipation of a slowdown, and that may hasten the fall.

While malls are packed with holiday shoppers, the import docks in California are quieter than usual as retailers trim inventory. U.S. airlines are flying with the fewest empty seats on record, yet many are cutting capacity.

Some economists worry that it will be this scale-down in business investment that tips an already wobbly U.S. economy into a recession next year.

“U.S. housing and consumer weakness are well recognized, but the coming weakness in business capital spending and slowing overseas growth is not,” Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Berner wrote in a note to clients entitled “Recession Coming.”

Berner said tightening credit terms and falling corporate revenue and profits would lead to weaker capital spending, and international growth probably would not be strong enough to compensate for the domestic slowdown.

The economy created a net 94,000 jobs in November and hourly wages rose 0.5 percent, suggesting a stable job market, which should bode well for spending. But companies are assuming the worst for consumers grappling with high energy costs, a souring housing market and tightening credit terms.

“We’re not seeing evidence of any significant slowdown (but) we’re at the edge of our seats,” Ed Bastian, the chief financial officer of Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), told the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington last week.

Bastian said he was more concerned about the consumer than $90 per barrel oil, and expects U.S. economic growth to slow to an anemic 1 percent to 2 percent next year. As a result, the airline is eliminating some domestic flights and refocusing on faster-growing emerging markets such as Africa and Asia.

SWOLLEN INVENTORY

Companies may be keen to pull back before the consumer does because inventory levels are already uncomfortably high. A big buildup in inventories accounted for 1 percentage point of the third quarter’s surprisingly strong 4.9 percent growth rate.

The economy is expected to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, partly because companies need to work off that excess. The question is how quickly it will rebound.

With consumer spending likely to slow and corporate profit growth shrinking, it may be take time to burn off that inventory and encourage businesses to reinvest, setting the stage for a vicious downward spiral.

“Managers will tend to extrapolate a slowdown in business activity into dimmer expectations of future growth, lower perceived returns from investing, and a reduced need to invest,” Morgan Stanley’s Berner said.

The potential strains on the consumer are well documented. Berner estimates that steep food and energy prices will have siphoned off $45 billion, or 0.4 percent, from discretionary spending between June and December 2007.

The weakening housing market and stricter mortgage and refinancing terms are also making it tougher for consumers to cash out home equity, blunting another spending tool. Berner estimated that the housing downturn would subtract 0.9 percentage point from U.S. growth over the next four quarters.

Retailers’ November sales results largely met analysts’ muted expectations, although shoppers appeared to be cutting back on discretionary purchases. Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N), the world’s biggest retailer, reported strong demand for basics such as food and pharmacy items.

In another sign that consumers may be stretched, the Federal Reserve said on Friday that debt on credit and charge cards rose at a hefty 8.3 percent rate in October to a record $928.5 billion.

“With more and more consumers relying on their credit cards for spending, with borrowing standards tightening and bad debt rates ticking up, that could be a serious red flag for consumer spending in 2008,” Credit Suisse retail sector analyst Gary Balter said.

That leaves the economy in an unpleasant chicken-and-egg dilemma: Business investment is unlikely to rebound without a pickup in consumer spending, but consumers rely on Corporate America for jobs and wages.

And both seem to be counting on the Federal Reserve for more interest rate cuts. Morgan Stanley’s Berner expects the Fed to cut at least another full point from its benchmark interest rate, beginning on Tuesday.

“We may still be too optimistic, swayed by the economic resilience of the past,” Berner said. “Insufficient Fed action could again threaten a deeper economic slowdown.”