This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in NovemberThe final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton's vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump's (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.Note: If you check back often, you may need to refresh your browser page to see the latest update

This chart tracks which presidential candidate our panelists believe will win in November, which may not be the same as the candidate they are supporting, if any.The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our latest update on who voters predict will win the election in November: Hillary Clinton (blue squares) or Donald Trump (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a “95-percent confidence interval”. Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the forecast for the candidate with the highest percentage is also the forecast of the UA population.Note: If you check back often, you may need to refresh your browser page to see the latest update

This chart tracks our latest estimate of the likelihood that Hillary Clinton’s supporters, and Donald Trump’s supporters, will turn out to vote in the presidential election in November.The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent respondents’ own predictions that they will go to the polls in November, among Clinton voters (blue squares), and among Trump voters (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that supporters of the candidate with the highest percentage will turn out more than the supporters of the other candidate in the general election.Note: If you check back often, you may need to refresh your browser page to see the latest update

This chart tracks support for presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump by respondent characteristics.The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimate of Clinton’s vote (blue squares), and Trump’s (red diamonds) among members of the featured voter group. These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a “95-percent confidence interval”. Whenever figures are lying outside the gray band for a particular group, we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote among this group.about interpreting vote estimates in this poll or any other: Smaller sample sizes associated with subgroups tend to have correspondingly larger margins of error. This may result in more day-to-day fluctuations than are found in larger samples. Thus, appropriate caution should be used in interpreting relative differences between candidate votes, and in interpreting changes in each candidate's vote over time in these charts.Update: We have updated the subgroup charts so that elements of each demographic group are shown on the same scale (e.g. all age groups are now shown on a scale from 0% to 80%). This allows a clearer comparison between the subgroups. As a result, the look of some of the charts has changed, but not their content. Coming soon: subgroup n (sample size) for each data point. Meanwhile, sample sizes may be obtained by downloading our survey data from the UAS datapages (Registration is free)

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the Understanding America Study (UAS) at the University of Southern California's Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research. It is being conducted in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times.

The team responsible for the Daybreak Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll , which was based on the same methodology.

The Daybreak Poll is based on an internet probability panel survey. Daybreak Poll members are participants in the ongoing UAS internet probability panel of about 5,500 U.S. residents who were randomly selected from among all households in the United States. Members of recruited households that did not have internet access were provided with tablets and internet service. The UAS panel is still growing. We project it will reach about 6000 members in the coming months.

More than 3200 UAS panel members so far (July 2016) have agreed to participate in answering questions about the election, and we expect that number will increase over time. Each day, 1/7th of those who have agreed to participate (more than 400 per day) are invited to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100) and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to 100). The order of the candidates in the questions is randomized so that about half of the respondents see Clinton as the first choice and half of the respondents see Trump as the first choice.

Each night, Daybreak Poll results are weighted to match demographic characteristics (such as race and gender) from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using how respondents tell us how they voted in that election. Then the latest results, averages of all of the prior week’s responses, are posted online at https://election.usc.edu and on the LATimes.com Politics site shortly after midnight.

In particular, to obtain the values shown in the election forecast chart, we weight each respondent's likelihood of voting for a candidate with their likelihood of voting in the presidential election. Next we calculate the mean of that number for all respondents during the last 7 days, taking into account respondent level weights based on demographics and past voting behavior. This is the estimated fraction of the population that will vote for the candidate. The graph shows the estimated fraction of the votes that a candidate will get, which is computed by dividing the estimated fraction of the population that will vote for the candidate by the estimated fraction of the population that will vote for any candidate. The latter is analogously obtained as the weighted mean of the respondents' likelihood of voting in the presidential election.

To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. Links to documents detailing question text, sample sizes, response rates and other information for these separate surveys are provided in the detailed information section below, linked to stories or press releases where the results were disseminated.

The Daybreak Poll began on July 4, 2016, and will run through the November election.

Delavande, Adeline, and Charles F. Manski. 2010. Probabilistic polling and voting in the 2008 presidential election: Evidence from the American Life Panel. Public Opinion Quarterly 74:433–459. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfq019 Gutsche, T. L., Kapteyn, A., Meijer, E., & Weerman, B. (2014). The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll. Public Opinion Quarterly, 78, 233–254. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfu009 Kapteyn, A., Meijer, E., & Weerman, B. (2012). Methodology of the RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (Working Paper No. WR-961). RAND Corporation. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2146149

Available soonDetailed survey methods pages for stories and releases based on additional questionsQ: Do you use a likely voter model?A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses.Q: Who is eligible to participate in the Daybreak poll?A: Any US citizen 18 and olderQ: How does UAS select respondents within a household?A: All household members 18 and older are invited to participateQ: Why doesn’t the Daybreak Poll specifically ask about voter support for Gary Johnson/ Jill Stein / other third party presidential candidates by name?A: The Daybreak Poll uses a probabilistic approach to asking people about their presidential voting preferences, which is quite different than the way voting preference is measured in most election polls. Our question asks panel members to allocate a percentage likelihood of voting for Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton or “someone else” (which can be Johnson, Stein, or anyone else the respondent is thinking of). We use these estimates, along with the respondent’s estimate of how likely they are to vote in November, to produce a daily rolling average of all responses received over the previous seven days. We have not asked respondents to allocate a percentage to any specific third party candidates by name. When we started the survey, the party conventions had not happened, and we could not predict who might garner voter attention as alternatives to the major party candidates. We have no plans to add additional candidates to our main vote question as our methods produce a trend line of changes over time, and changing the vote question would break that trend line. In general, the aim of the Daybreak Poll is to track public support for the candidates during the campaigns and to forecast the outcome as accurately as possible. We do not take a position on relying on polling results, which are subject to measurement error, as a criteria for who can and cannot join media-sponsored presidential candidate debates. If such a criteria is imposed, the requirement may be met by examining the results of traditional polls that ask about specific third party candidates by name. Clinton gains 5 points to tie Trump in post-DNC Daybreak Poll , August 8, 2016 RNC boosts Trump – and Clinton supporters’ resolve , July 26, 2016 USC, Los Angeles Times launch daily election poll , July 15, 2016 Donald Trump still has a path to victory, but it's a tough one, USC/L.A. Times poll shows , David Lauter, August 31, 2016 New poll analysis finds a wasted summer for Donald Trump and a boost for Hillary Clinton , Cathleen Decker, August 18, 2016 Why the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll differs from other surveys , David Lauter, August 9, 2016 Trump loses ground among key voter groups, tracking poll finds , David Lauter, August 6, 2016 Even after a convention that critics panned, Trump got a big bounce. Will Clinton gain now too? LATImes.com/politics , David Lauter, July 28, 2016. As Clinton Stumbles, Trump takes an apparent slim lead in new tracking poll. LATimes.com/politics , David Lauter, July 15, 2016

✝Daybreak Poll methodology differs from the methods described in these references in a few ways: The sample continues to grow so sample size will increase as election day nears. In relation to the growing sample size, weights are applied daily to create rolling 7 day averages, and we are using improved standard error calculations (survey bootstrap with replication weights).