Trump’s tax returns will play a starring role in 2018 if for no other reason than that they symbolize the concrete stakes of the midterms: that only the Democrats will reveal his returns, if so empowered by voters; and that only Democrats will get to the bottom of Trump’s corruption more generally. It is an issue that will continually resurface until the election, after which the White House had better hope Republicans still control Congress. Because if they don’t, the potential consequences for their party in 2020 are nearly bottomless.

It is very likely that none of the people running interference for Trump have any idea whether he is legitimately under audit, or what he’s concealing by refusing to release the returns. But they have all placed themselves on the hook for whatever happens when the long fuse of the tax return story is finally lit.



Consider, for instance, that IRS Commissioner John Koskinen’s term ends on November 12. His departure will no doubt thrill conservatives, who have sought his impeachment over the agency’s alleged (but wholly imagined) partisan targeting of conservative non-profit groups. But it will create a major new conflict of interest for Trump, and, one imagines, a huge political problem for congressional Republicans: If we take Trump at his word that he’s been under continuous audit for a long time, he can’t be entrusted with the obligation to nominate a new commissioner.

It is true that the IRS has automatically audited all presidents since Nixon, and, unless Trump orders the agency to desist, will audit him as well. Thus, in an extremely superficial sense, past presidents filling vacancies at the IRS have faced a similar conflict. But Trump’s entanglements are sui generis. His predecessors had disclosed their tax returns and placed their assets in blind trusts, rendering the compulsory audit a mere formality. Trump has refused to liquidate his holdings, and, astonishingly, is using the existence of these corrupting financial interests as a shield to protect him from transparency norms that all recent presidents have adhered to.

If Democrats are smart, they will insist that Trump either get right with these norms or recuse himself from the selection of the next IRS commissioner—which he could do by, for instance, agreeing to nominate the consensus pick of the Republican chairman and Democratic ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee. Democrats should also refuse to consider any tax-reform legislation until its effect on Trump’s finances can be determined. It is unlikely that such legislation will garner much if any Democratic support anyhow, but it shouldn’t be lost on voters that Trump will have a huge hand in shaping legislation that cuts his taxes by an amount that only he knows, and Republicans in Congress are happy to help him enrich himself.