The median of the 41 respondents sees the first rate in December, compared with September in the prior survey. While about half of the respondents forecast the first rate hike this year, the other half sees it into 2016 and even, for some, as late as 2017. As recently as the September survey, 80 percent were certain of a 2015 hike.

"The earliest possible liftoff date for the FOMC is now January," wrote John Donaldson, vice president of Haverford Trust. "That would likely require a good to very good holiday season for consumer spending combined with a winter without a polar vortex."

Not everyone is so sure. Many expressed concerned about the dangers of the Fed waiting too long to raise rates. Nearly half worry that not hiking rates will give the central bank less defense against a future downturn. A third are concerned about the risk to the credibility of the Fed, which has forecast a rate rise this year for some time.

"There is an increasing risk that the Federal Reserve will be too slow in beginning to normalize interest rates and will need to raise rates much more aggressively in the future," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

The overwhelming economic concern among respondents is weak overseas growth, chosen by 41 percent as the biggest threat to the U.S. economy. The next biggest threat, chosen by 13 percent, is geopolitical risks. Slow wage growth is the main concern with the domestic economy, but it only ranked in third place, a sign that many believe the underlying domestic economy is at least stable.