CONTACT:

Coleman Bass Targ etSmart Communications , LLC (443) 676-1803 PressPublicPolling@targetsmart.com

EDITOR’S NOTE:

Explore our inte ractive dashboard with survey r esults and voter fil e data here

TARGETSMART AND WILLIAM & MARY RELE ASE POLL OF OHIO LIKELY VOTERS

-Clinton 4 0, Trump 3 7 La test Survey Shows-

September 26, 2016

–

Hillary Clinton holds a narrow, 3-point lead over Donald Trump in Ohio, 40 to 37 percent, with 8 percent of voters supporting Gary Johnson, according to a new poll of likely voters released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary. Recently fo rming a part nersh ip to prod uce original research in key battleground states, Ta rgetSmart and Will iam & Mary developed a unique approach to det

ermining a “likely voter ” model for this poll.

The research t eam f irst weighted the su rvey data to mirror all register ed v oters on the Targ etSma rt v oter file, and then applied a second round of weights based solely on

respondents’ likelihood to vo te, as measured by Targ etSmart ’s Genera l Elect ion Turnout score, on e of many predictive models

hou sed on the Tar getSmart voter fil e.

“Ha ving the ability t o use Targ etSmar t’ s turnout score t o weight the data takes much of the guesswork out o f determining a li

kely

voter model,” said Ron Rapoport, John Marshall Professor of Government at William & Mary.

Several key tr

ends underlie t he b at tle for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes. The poll shows a mo re consolidated base of part isan s upport

for Hillary Clinton, a s 85 p ercent of self-described Democra ts back her, while just 70 percent of Republicans side wit h Donald Trump. Fou rte en percent of Buckeye State Republicans ba ck a non-major party candidate (10 percent support Johnson ), compared to just 4 percent of Democrats who do the same. There is also a large gender gap as Clinton leads by 16-points among Ohio women (4 7 to 31 percent), a nd tra ils Trump by 12-points among men (32 to 44 percent). When combinin g education and gender, the differences are even more pronounced as Clinton leads Trump by 21-points among college educated women, but trails Trump by 15-points among men without a college degree. The race is even (38 percent apiece) among

higher prop ensity vote rs based on Targe tSmart ’s Genera l Election Turnout model. Clinton’s overall advantage is based on a strong performance with lower propensity voters, among whom she leads by

9-points (44 to 35 percent),

suggesting that a low turnout election could work to Trump’s advantage.

The poll reached 821 registered Ohio voters through a blend of online and telephone interviews. All survey records were matched

to Target Smart’s en hanced voter file. “TargetSmart partners with a number of leading online panel providers, matching their rec

ruited panelists to our voter file using a proprietary anonymization process. As a result, we can analyze online survey data in much the same way pollsters have, for years,

analyze d telephone polls dialed from the v oter file,” said Target Smart pollster Ben

Lazarus.

###

About TargetSmart:

Targe tSmar t i s the leading prov i der of political data that enables campaign s a nd organizatio ns to su cces sfully communicate wi th large audienc es, and pe rsonalize o utr each. Our s uperior political ly-focused, consult ative approach combine s co nsumer data, d at abases, data i ntegr ation and co nsult ing s ol utio ns for p erson alized multich annel marketin g strategies. TargetS mar t l ever ages o ver 2 5 yea rs of experien ce i n data managem ent to deliver high- pe rformance, reliable data produc ts an d solution s.

About William & Mary:

Wil liam & M a ry is a public univ ersity located in Williamsb urg, Virgin ia. Founded by Royal Charter in 169 3, it i s the second o ldest institut ion of higher ed ucation in th e United States.

U.S. News and World Report

ran ks William & Mary sixth among all p ublic univ ersities in the country.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

09/26/2016