Broadband Monopoly Will Protect Cable From Cord Cutting

The bad news for the cable industry? The latest SNL Kagan analysis predicts that cable TV revenues are set to decline by $2.7 billion over the next ten years as the industry continues to lose basic cable subscribers to streaming video. SNL Kagan issued a different report this week noting that the biggest cable providers lost 812,000 subscribers in the second quarter of 2016, a year-over-year drop of about 1.4 million.

The good news for the cable industry? Because it's cementing a stronger monopoly over broadband than ever before, it will be able to nab $11 billion in additional cash from residential broadband subscribers to counter any losses.

According to SNL Kagan, cable broadband subscribers will jump by 8 million in the next 10 years, reaching 71 million subscribers by 2026. That growth will boost cable broadband revenues $35.5 billion this year to $47.3 billion.

As companies like AT&T and Verizon exit unwanted DSL territories, the remaining telcos are saddled with significant debt and left incapable or unwilling to upgrade their aging copper networks to fiber at serious scale outside of most of the largest markets. As a result, cable providers saw 99% of the net broadband subscriber additions last quarter as users looking for speeds beyond 3-6 Mbps flocked to cable.

“Despite ongoing declines in video, the next 10 years look pretty good for this sector,” SNL Kagan’s Tony Lenoir and Ian Olgeirson said in the report.

And that's presumably before you even factor in the money that can be made by hitting these captive customers with usage caps and overage fees , a glorified rate hike that can only be attempted in regions with limited broadband competition. In short? While the cable industry is going to feel the pinch of cord cutting over the next decade, its domination of broadband is going to more than make up for it in terms of overall revenues.