What To Expect When Expecting Trump

Vox Vult Blocked Unblock Follow Following Jan 23, 2017

First things first let’s catch you up to speed. If you don’t know already Donald Trump is president now, yes that rich guy from WWE. No really ,I’m not joking he’s the president this isn’t an episode of the twilight zone. Well I guess he actually started being the president today instead of the actual first day, he wanted the weekend off I suppose. Im sure you are curious to what the “honeymoon period” will look like. Well we got a pretty good guess and it’s not at all pretty. So let’s take a quick look and dissect his plan bit by bit.

FIRST, propose a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress.

+Okay so this one may seem fairly reasonable at first if congress is rigged or dismally ineffective it would stand to reason that limiting the ability of someone to become a career politician would be a wise decision, however these limits have a completely unforeseen consequences. The obvious one is that this is just purely undemocratic, why should the voice of the people be stifled simply because the person they chose has served before? We are punishing the most experienced and loyal politicians simply because there are also self serving long term politicians. Let me ask you what the alternative is? A decrease in civility if you believe the NCSL followed by a endless stream of inexperienced and bullish young politicians.

SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce the federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health).

+My main issue here isn’t the concept, it’s more that this probably won’t save money which is what it is designed to do. It almost certainly is supposed to “drain the swamp” and make government more effective however it probably will just be a large waste of time and money.

THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated.

+This one needs a bit of context, see there were over 80,000 pages in the Federal Register before the end of the Obama administration. So a streamlining would seem to be in order. However the fear is that because of other parts of this 100 day plan and Trumps recent picks for things like the EPA head, this change may mean that these cuts are to things like environment and regulations holding back things like banks and corporations.

FOURTH, a five-year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service.

+I just don’t see it happening. This would require congressional action and I don’t think they would be very willing.

FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.

+Oh like the ones that got you into office? Paul Manafort? I mean come on this is the kettle calling the pot black isn’t it?

SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

+See previous pledge

Next line — — —

FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205.

+It’s hard to explain where exactly to start here but I will do my best. See NAFTA isn’t something that came into being very easily, it took congress more than 20 years to get it codified. This is no simple matter to “renegotiate” it especially not in 100 days. Whether or not the claims by Trump and his ilk are correct that this trade deal is the most harmful trade deal in US history is at the current moment irrelevant. What is relevant is that this may be ruinous for the United States. See article 2205 lays out how a country may leave NAFTA if they so choose however they would “remain in force for the remaining parties”. But this renegotiation would take a very long time if it happened at all. Many prominent democrats like Sanders and Warren stand with most Republicans in their distrust of free trade deals. However if we are to assume that we will simply pull out of the deal, the resulting trade war that this would almost cause would spike unemployment.

SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

+An Idea so nice I guess we’ll do it twice. He’s actually done this so point one for him. However this really wasn’t his doing. Obama killed it in all but name before Trump had the chance.

THIRD, I will direct the Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator.

+He’s right… to a point. The Yuan is certainly being manipulated but to be stronger not weaker. The claim is that China is devaluing the Yuan to be weaker so that trade would be most costly for the US and cheaper for China. This actually totally happened. However there is no evidence it is still happening, everything we can now see points to the opposite. It would seem that China is attempting to keep capital in the country so that it is actually worth more. Beyond this, being labeled a currency manipulator wouldn’t do much of anything for a while all this would really do is start a series of negotiations that would attempt to stop the manipulation of currency they perceive. It’s impossible to know if this would work but several prominent experts have expressed serious doubt.

FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.

+This is far to vague to give an accurate assessment of.

FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

+Where to even start with this one? I will ignore the “$50 trillion dollars” number not because it is irrelevant but because it is not the most important detail here. So to start shale oil is just horrid. Besides the fact that is is a known carcinogen and the strongly backed up claims that it is almost certainly a bubble this rapid production of shale oil will further strain an already strained relationship with OPEC. Next gas and coal. One thing to set straight is that the shift away from coal isn’t ever gonna change, because it is a shift towards gas. And plain and simple no man can change that without hurting the economy. Also “clean coal” is not real. This is clearly another attempt to strengthen the claim that climate change is a myth and that alternative energy programs are too costly or too risky. But let me be clear, this is simply not true.

SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward.

+This is wonderful for Canada. And this will get us a lot of respect and loyalty with the Canadian government but we will most likely see very little from this economically, however it may set a precedent of carbon heavy pipelines becoming the norm.

SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure.

+This one is quite easy actually, we only give the U.N. about $10 million a year since 1992. Obama did intend that the US give about $3 billion over the course of several years but as of right now the US has only given $500 million to the U.N.

Next Line — — —

FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama.

+He wants to get rid of DACA, he just doesn’t say it outright. Which allows certain illegal immigrants who came to the US as children to have certain protections. Can he repel this act? yeah he can and the effects would be felt. We would see a uptick in unemployment in work eligible immigrants. And not much else really.

SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the U.S. Constitution.

+Self explanatory.

THIRD, cancel all federal funding to sanctuary cities.

+This would be more concerning if he actually goes through with this. We know he falsely claims that sanctuary cities are real physical threat to americans. But because this statement is so extremely vague we have no real clue what it would mean besides possibly cutting billions of dollars to programs completely unrelated to immigration, simply because they are in sanctuary cities.

FOURTH, begin removing the more than two million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back.

+There is no clear roadmap for this, how he will remove them is at this moment unclear and largely fanciful. Most immigrants come in legally only to overstay a visa. Canceling this visa wouldn’t change much other than making already illegal immigrants doubly illegal.

FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered “extreme vetting.”

+Does this include non muslim nations? Further more how will this alleviate the terrorism problem in the United States? Most terror attacks are committed by domestic non muslims actors, so again how will this help the US?

So there are his changes. There is more to his 100 day plan but those are acts not direct changes so here we are of his major plans for the 100 day plan very few do not have large glaring issues that are not merely a matter of opinion but a matter of pure logically disregard.