In the 2014 budget, the Coalition announced it would pursue "sustainable spending arrangements for schools and public hospitals" by introducing new "sensible indexation arrangements". It would do this by linking school funding to inflation and enrolments - a less generous measure given inflation is currently running at less than two per cent.

Education Minister Simon Birmingham Credit:Andrew Meares

The problem is that the existing indexation levels are enshrined in legislation. That's unlike the funding levels themselves (which explains why the Coalition can ditch the last two years of Labor's six-year Gonski deals with the states).

Changing indexation levels would mean changing the Australian Education Act - something the government has shown no indication of doing. It would be an impossible task given the current populist Senate crossbench, which would never countenance less money for schools. The government would only have a shot if it wins a rare Senate majority at the next election.

Even then, those in the education sector doubt it will happen. The powerful private and Catholic school sectors have made it clear to the government that linking funding to inflation is a change they'll never accept. They say a measure based on the real cost of running a school is needed and if they don't get one they will go to war with the government, threatening fee hikes and school closures.