Campaign contribution data from the first three months of this election year suggest the already-powerful Conservative fundraising machine is out-muscling the opposition parties in an increasing number of ridings, particularly in Quebec.

The Tories ranked as the top fundraisers in 215 of the 338 ridings during the first quarter of 2015, a Citizen analysis found.

The Liberals came out first in 71 ridings and the New Democrats in 39.

The Q1 data show a sharp increase for the Tories from 2014, when a similar pattern of aggregate quarterly contributions put them first past the post in fundraising totals in 185 ridings.

The Tories are extending their lead across ridings compared to 2014 by continuing to build financial support in Quebec, where the party currently holds only five seats.

The Q1 2015 data show the Conservatives bested all other parties in 34 Quebec ridings, up from the 21 ridings they led in 2014.

If votes were to follow dollars in this October’s election, that pattern would put the Conservatives on a glide path to an increased majority government.

In Quebec, the Conservatives led fundraising in mostly rural and suburban seats but came out in front even in the downtown Montreal riding of Outremont, represented by NDP leader Tom Mulcair.

The Liberals, at least, are winning the fundraising battle by taking the most money from people with postal codes located in the riding of Mount Royal, a long-time stronghold once represented by then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau.

The Tories hope their unquestioning support for the government of Israel will appeal to Mount Royal’s large Jewish population and flip the seat that will be vacated by retiring Liberal Irwin Cotler.

Overall, the Liberals still raise the most money from Quebec, but their big-dollar donations are mostly concentrated in urban Montreal ridings such as Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount and Ville-Marie-Le Sud-Ouest-Ile-des-Soeurs.

The Citizen analysis is based on campaign filings that list the postal codes of donors who gave more than $200. Donations of less than $200 whose locations were not disclosed were projected onto ridings based on the same proportion as larger donations.

Although it is unclear how closely related donations and vote intentions are, this “Moneyball” analysis of the geographic pattern uses a far larger sample size – more than 22,000 donations received by the parties in January, February and March – than a typical poll.

The increasingly strong Conservative fundraising numbers in Quebec echo polls that show the party’s support steadily rising in the province since last fall while the Liberals and New Democrats wane.

The flight by some voters to the Tories in Quebec could be attributable to fears about terrorism prompted by the killing of a Canadian Forces member in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu and the murders at Paris-based satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, which resonated loudly in Quebec.

Although Quebec has largely been a write-off for the Tories, frustrated by their inability to grow beyond the 10 seats they took in 2006, they are actively recruiting higher-profile candidates in the province, many drawn from municipal government backgrounds.

A coalition between Western conservatives and Quebec nationalists was key to Progressive Conservative majority government wins in 1984 and 1998, but Prime Minister Stephen Harper has shown that a majority can be assembled without Quebec.

If Harper were to win a substantial number of seats in Quebec, as the fundraising data hint, his party could survive attrition of seats in Ontario and British Columbia and still emerge with another majority.

The fundraising numbers signal steady support for the Conservatives in Western Canada. Despite the NDP upset in this week’s Alberta provincial election, the federal Conservatives led fundraising totals in every riding save for two in Edmonton, where the Liberals reaped more cash.

gmcgregor@ottawacitizen.com

Twitter.com/glen_mcgregor

Who’s winning, where:

Riding/province/projected winner based on contributions

Banff–Airdrie AB Conservative

Battle River–Crowfoot AB Conservative

Bow River AB Conservative

Calgary Centre AB Conservative

Calgary Confederation AB Conservative

Calgary Forest Lawn AB Conservative

Calgary Heritage AB Conservative

Calgary Midnapore AB Conservative

Calgary Nose Hill AB Conservative

Calgary Rocky Ridge AB Conservative

Calgary Shepard AB Conservative

Calgary Signal Hill AB Conservative

Calgary Skyview AB Conservative

Edmonton Centre AB Conservative

Edmonton Griesbach AB Liberal

Edmonton Manning AB Liberal

Edmonton Mill Woods AB Conservative

Edmonton Riverbend AB Conservative

Edmonton Strathcona AB Conservative

Edmonton West AB Conservative

Edmonton–Wetaskiwin AB Conservative

Foothills AB Conservative

Fort McMurray–Cold Lake AB Conservative

Grande Prairie–Mackenzie AB Conservative

Lakeland AB Conservative

Lethbridge AB Conservative

Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner AB Conservative

Peace River–Westlock AB Conservative

Red Deer–Lacombe AB Conservative

Red Deer–Mountain View AB Conservative

Sherwood Park–Fort Saskatchewan AB Conservative

St. Albert–Edmonton AB Conservative

Sturgeon River–Parkland AB Conservative

Yellowhead AB Conservative

British Columbia

Abbotsford BC Conservative

Burnaby North–Seymour BC New Democratic Party

Burnaby South BC Liberal

Cariboo–Prince George BC Conservative

Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola BC Conservative

Chilliwack–Hope BC Conservative

Cloverdale–Langley City BC Conservative

Coquitlam–Port Coquitlam BC Conservative

Courtenay–Alberni BC Conservative

Cowichan–Malahat–Langford BC Conservative

Delta BC Conservative

Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke BC Conservative

Fleetwood–Port Kells BC Liberal

Kamloops–Thompson–Cariboo BC Conservative

Kelowna–Lake Country BC Conservative

Kootenay–Columbia BC Conservative

Langley–Aldergrove BC Conservative

Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon BC Conservative

Nanaimo–Ladysmith BC Green Party

New Westminster–Burnaby BC Liberal

North Island–Powell River BC New Democratic Party

North Okanagan–Shuswap BC Conservative

North Vancouver BC Conservative

Pitt Meadows–Maple Ridge BC Conservative

Port Moody–Coquitlam BC Conservative

Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies BC Conservative

Richmond Centre BC Conservative

Saanich–Gulf Islands BC Green Party

Skeena–Bulkley Valley BC Conservative

South Okanagan–West Kootenay BC New Democratic Party

South Surrey–White Rock BC Conservative

Steveston–Richmond East BC Liberal

Surrey Centre BC Liberal

Surrey–Newton BC Liberal

Vancouver Centre BC Liberal

Vancouver East BC Conservative

Vancouver Granville BC Conservative

Vancouver Kingsway BC Liberal

Vancouver Quadra BC Liberal

Vancouver South BC Liberal

Victoria BC New Democratic Party

West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country BC Conservative

Manitoba

Brandon–Souris MB Conservative

Charleswood–St. James–Assiniboia–Headingley MB Conservative

Churchill–Keewatinook Aski MB New Democratic Party

Dauphin–Swan River–Neepawa MB Conservative

Elmwood–Transcona MB Liberal

Kildonan–St. Paul MB Conservative

Portage–Lisgar MB Conservative

Provencher MB Conservative

Saint Boniface–Saint Vital MB Conservative

Selkirk–Interlake–Eastman MB Conservative

Winnipeg Centre MB New Democratic Party

Winnipeg North MB Conservative

Winnipeg South MB Conservative

Winnipeg South Centre MB Conservative

New Brunswick

Acadie–Bathurst NB Liberal

Beausjour NB Conservative

Fredericton NB Liberal

Fundy Royal NB Conservative

Madawaska–Restigouche NB Conservative

Miramichi–Grand Lake NB Conservative

Moncton–Riverview–Dieppe NB Conservative

New Brunswick Southwest NB Conservative

Saint John–Rothesay NB Conservative

Tobique–Mactaquac NB Conservative

Newfoundland and Labrador

Avalon NL Conservative

Bonavista–Burin–Trinity NL (incomplete data)

Coast of Bays–Central–Notre Dame NL Green Party

Labrador NL Conservative

Long Range Mountains NL Liberal

St. John’s East NL Liberal

St. John’s South–Mount Pearl NL New Democratic Party

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton–Canso NS Conservative

Central Nova NS Liberal

Cumberland–Colchester NS Conservative

Dartmouth–Cole Harbour NS Liberal

Halifax NS Liberal

Halifax West NS Liberal

Kings–Hants NS New Democratic Party

Sackville–Preston–Chezzetcook NS Conservative

South Shore–St. Margarets NS Liberal

Sydney–Victoria NS Conservative

West Nova NS Liberal

Northwest Territories

Northwest Territories NT Conservative

Nunavut

Nunavut NU New Democratic Party

Ontario

Ajax ON Conservative

Algoma–Manitoulin–Kapuskasing ON Conservative

Aurora–Oak Ridges–Richmond Hill ON Conservative

Barrie–Innisfil ON Conservative

Barrie–Springwater–Oro-Medonte ON Conservative

Bay of Quinte ON Conservative

Beaches–East York ON Conservative

Brampton Centre ON Conservative

Brampton East ON Liberal

Brampton North ON Liberal

Brampton South ON Liberal

Brampton West ON Liberal

Brantford–Brant ON Conservative

Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound ON Liberal

Burlington ON Conservative

Cambridge ON Conservative

Carleton ON Conservative

Chatham-Kent–Leamington ON Conservative

Davenport ON New Democratic Party

Don Valley East ON Conservative

Don Valley North ON Liberal

Don Valley West ON Conservative

Dufferin–Caledon ON Conservative

Durham ON Conservative

Eglinton–Lawrence ON Conservative

Elgin–Middlesex–London ON Conservative

Essex ON Liberal

Etobicoke Centre ON Conservative

Etobicoke North ON Conservative

Etobicoke–Lakeshore ON Conservative

Flamborough–Glanbrook ON Conservative

Glengarry–Prescott–Russell ON Conservative

Guelph ON New Democratic Party

Haldimand–Norfolk ON Conservative

Haliburton–Kawartha Lakes–Brock ON Conservative

Hamilton Centre ON New Democratic Party

Hamilton East–Stoney Creek ON Liberal

Hamilton Mountain ON Conservative

Hamilton West–Ancaster–Dundas ON Conservative

Hastings–Lennox and Addington ON Conservative

Humber River–Black Creek ON Liberal

Huron–Bruce ON Conservative

Kanata–Carleton ON Conservative

Kenora ON Conservative

King–Vaughan ON Conservative

Kingston and the Islands ON Liberal

Kitchener Centre ON Liberal

Kitchener South–Hespeler ON Liberal

Kitchener–Conestoga ON Conservative

Lambton–Kent–Middlesex ON Conservative

Lanark–Frontenac–Kingston ON Conservative

Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes ON Conservative

London North Centre ON Conservative

London West ON Conservative

London–Fanshawe ON Conservative

Markham–Stouffville ON Liberal

Markham–Thornhill ON Liberal

Markham–Unionville ON Conservative

Milton ON Liberal

Mississauga Centre ON Liberal

Mississauga East–Cooksville ON Conservative

Mississauga–Erin Mills ON Liberal

Mississauga–Lakeshore ON Liberal

Mississauga–Malton ON Conservative

Mississauga–Streetsville ON Conservative

Nepean ON Conservative

Newmarket–Aurora ON New Democratic Party

Niagara Centre ON Conservative

Niagara Falls ON Conservative

Niagara West ON Conservative

Nickel Belt ON Conservative

Nipissing–Timiskaming ON New Democratic Party

Northumberland–Peterborough South ON Conservative

Oakville ON Conservative

Oakville North–Burlington ON Conservative

Orleans ON Liberal

Oshawa ON Conservative

Ottawa Centre ON Liberal

Ottawa South ON Liberal

Ottawa West–Nepean ON Conservative

Ottawa–Vanier ON Liberal

Oxford ON Conservative

Parkdale–High Park ON New Democratic Party

Parry Sound–Muskoka ON Conservative

Perth–Wellington ON Conservative

Peterborough–Kawartha ON New Democratic Party

Pickering–Uxbridge ON Conservative

Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke ON Conservative

Richmond Hill ON Liberal

Sarnia–Lambton ON Conservative

Sault Ste. Marie ON Conservative

Scarborough Centre ON Conservative

Scarborough North ON Liberal

Scarborough Southwest ON Liberal

Scarborough–Agincourt ON Conservative

Scarborough–Guildwood ON Conservative

Scarborough–Rouge Park ON Liberal

Simcoe North ON Conservative

Simcoe–Grey ON Conservative

Spadina–Fort York ON Liberal

St. Catharines ON Conservative

Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry ON Conservative

Sudbury ON Conservative

Thornhill ON Conservative

Thunder Bay–Rainy River ON Conservative

Thunder Bay–Superior North ON Liberal

Timmins–James Bay ON Conservative

Toronto Centre ON Liberal

Toronto–Danforth ON New Democratic Party

Toronto–St. Paul’s ON Conservative

University–Rosedale ON Conservative

Vaughan–Woodbridge ON Conservative

Waterloo ON Conservative

Wellington–Halton Hills ON Conservative

Whitby ON Liberal

Willowdale ON Liberal

Windsor West ON Liberal

Windsor–Tecumseh ON Liberal

York Centre ON Conservative

York South–Weston ON New Democratic Party

York–Simcoe ON Conservative

Prince Edward Island

Cardigan PE Liberal

Charlottetown PE Liberal

Egmont PE Conservative

Malpeque PE Conservative

Quebec

Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou QC (incomplete data)

Abitibi–Tmiscamingue QC New Democratic Party

Ahuntsic-Cartierville QC Conservative

Alfred-Pellan QC Conservative

Argenteuil–La Petite-Nation QC Liberal

Avignon–La Mitis–Matane–Matapdia QC Bloc Quebecois

Bcancour–Nicolet–Saurel QC Conservative

Beauce QC Conservative

Beauport–Cte-de-Beaupr–le dOrlans–Charlevoix QC Bloc Quebecois

Beauport–Limoilou QC Conservative

Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lvis QC Conservative

Beloeil–Chambly QC Green Party

Berthier–Maskinong QC Conservative

Bourassa QC Bloc Quebecois

Brome–Missisquoi QC Liberal

Brossard–Saint-Lambert QC Liberal

Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles QC Conservative

Chicoutimi–Le Fjord QC Conservative

Chteauguay–Lacolle QC Conservative

Compton–Stanstead QC New Democratic Party

Dorval–Lachine–LaSalle QC New Democratic Party

Drummond QC Conservative

Gaspsie–Les les-de-la-Madeleine QC Conservative

Gatineau QC Conservative

Hochelaga QC New Democratic Party

Honor-Mercier QC Bloc Quebecois

Hull–Aylmer QC New Democratic Party

Joliette QC Bloc Quebecois

Jonquire QC Conservative

La Pointe-de-l’le QC Conservative

La Prairie QC Conservative

Lac-Saint-Jean QC Conservative

Lac-Saint-Louis QC Liberal

LaSalle–mard–Verdun QC New Democratic Party

Laurentides–Labelle QC New Democratic Party

Laurier–Sainte-Marie QC New Democratic Party

Laval–Les les QC Liberal

Longueuil–Charles-LeMoyne QC Conservative

Longueuil–Saint-Hubert QC New Democratic Party

Louis-Hbert QC Conservative

Louis-Saint-Laurent QC Conservative

Lvis–Lotbinire QC Conservative

Manicouagan QC Conservative

Marc-Aurle-Fortin QC Conservative

Mgantic–L’rable QC Conservative

Mirabel QC New Democratic Party

Montarville QC Liberal

Montcalm QC New Democratic Party

Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivire-du-Loup QC Conservative

Mount Royal QC Liberal

Notre-Dame-de-Grce–Westmount QC Liberal

Outremont QC Conservative

Papineau QC Liberal

Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchres QC New Democratic Party

Pierrefonds–Dollard QC Liberal

Pontiac QC New Democratic Party

Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier QC Conservative

Qubec QC Liberal

Repentigny QC Bloc Quebecois

Richmond–Arthabaska QC New Democratic Party

Rimouski-Neigette–Tmiscouata–Les Basques QC Conservative

Rivire-des-Mille-les QC New Democratic Party

Rivire-du-Nord QC New Democratic Party

Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie QC New Democratic Party

Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot QC Conservative

Saint-Jean QC Conservative

Saint-Laurent QC Conservative

Saint-Lonard–Saint-Michel QC Liberal

Saint-Maurice–Champlain QC Bloc Quebecois

Salaberry–Surot QC Bloc Quebecois

Shefford QC Bloc Quebecois

Sherbrooke QC New Democratic Party

Terrebonne QC Conservative

Thrse-De Blainville QC New Democratic Party

Trois-Rivires QC New Democratic Party

Vaudreuil–Soulanges QC Conservative

Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–le-des-Soeurs QC Liberal

Vimy QC Conservative

Saskatchewan

Battlefords–Lloydminster SK Conservative

Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek SK Conservative

Cypress Hills–Grasslands SK Conservative

Desneth–Missinippi–Churchill River SK Conservative

Moose Jaw–Lake Centre–Lanigan SK Conservative

Prince Albert SK Conservative

Regina–Lewvan SK New Democratic Party

Regina–Qu’Appelle SK Conservative

Regina–Wascana SK Conservative

Saskatoon West SK Conservative

Saskatoon–Grasswood SK Conservative

Saskatoon–University SK Conservative

Souris–Moose Mountain SK Conservative

Yorkton–Melville SK Conservative

Yukon

Yukon YT Conservative