

UK politics: irony at the top of the list 13/05/2014

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As long as the Labour Party was in the ascendency, with the Conservatives cast as the losers, it was playtime for UKIP supporters. Since Labour was going to get in anyway, the Tories could be given a "right good kicking", with no danger of their dustbin vote actually changing anything.



But now we see the "shock"



To an extent, this was always going to happen – the classic two-party squeeze – although, for the time being, the UKIP vote is holding up at 15 percent. This, though, is before Mr Cameron's "cast-iron promise" on an EU referendum has had a chance to exercise whatever effect it might.



And that really does place UKIP supporters in a quandary. There can be no doubt now that Mr Cameron has boxed himself into a corner. If he gets to be prime minister after the 2015 general election, then he is committed to a referendum.



Moreover, Cameron has played his hand so badly that he will be facing the electorate without a credible renegotiation to offer them, giving the outers the best opportunity they will get in a decade or more to force an exit from the EU.



Therein lies



As long as they could pretend that the Tories had no chance of winning, the decision was easy to make. But if Mr Cameron looks as if he could renew his lease on No. 10, the UKippers are going to have to think again. Are the seriously going to turn down a chance of voting in a referendum, and getting us out of the EU, just for the sake of giving the Tories a kicking?



They can, of course, dig their heels in and assert that Mr Cameron is not to be trusted – "cast-iron Dave" has already reneged on his promise, and there is nothing to stop him from doing so again. And they may be right in their assessment, but if they don't take a chance, how will they ever know?



On the other hand, they have to ask themselves what they are putting at risk. At the very worst, we end up with a Conservative government instead of a Labour administration led by Mr Miliband. And should then Mr Cameron then refuse a referendum, one can only imagine that the revenge would be terrible. One could then see UKIP in the 2020 election do real damage to the Tories.



A more sanguine assessment, however, may advise caution in 2015. Although Mr Cameron might find it very hard to win an "in-out" referendum, it remains well within the capability of the anti-EU movement to lose it. Unable to unify behind a coherent exit plan, or agree a campaign strategy, one can easily see the bickering groupuscules so alienating the electorate that the vote goes Mr Cameron's way by default.



The real judgement call we may have to make, therefore, is not whether there will be a referendum but whether we can win one. If on balance we feel that the chances of winning are slight, then we would be better off voting against the Tories in the 2015 general election, in order to stop Mr Cameron giving us a referendum.



Therein lies the ultimate irony. The "eurosceptics" may decide to vote UKIP to block a referendum that we can't win, not least because UKIP itself will so damage the cause that it will stop us winning. Thus we end up staying in the EU, to protect us from the risk of losing a vote which will take us out. In other words, we must stay in to keep alive any hope that we can some day leave.



One might suggest here, that in the long list of the things that one couldn't make up, this has to be pretty close to the top.



FORUM THREAD As long as the Labour Party was in the ascendency, with the Conservatives cast as the losers, it was playtime for UKIP supporters. Since Labour was going to get in anyway, the Tories could be given a "right good kicking", with no danger of their dustbin vote actually changing anything.But now we see the "shock" ICM poll putting the conservatives into the lead, voters are having to face the prospect that playtime is over – there is a real contest in the making, where every vote will count. The idea of a guilt-free kicking – still an option for the euros – becomes less attractive for the general election.To an extent, this was always going to happen – the classic two-party squeeze – although, for the time being, the UKIP vote is holding up at 15 percent. This, though, is before Mr Cameron's "cast-iron promise" on an EU referendum has had a chance to exercise whatever effect it might.And that really does place UKIP supporters in a quandary. There can be no doubt now that Mr Cameron has boxed himself into a corner. If he gets to be prime minister after the 2015 general election, then he is committed to a referendum.Moreover, Cameron has played his hand so badly that he will be facing the electorate without a credible renegotiation to offer them, giving the outers the best opportunity they will get in a decade or more to force an exit from the EU.Therein lies the conundrum to which we alluded earlier. The UKIP supporters have got to make up their minds which they want most – an "in-out" referendum or a chance to damage the Tories.As long as they could pretend that the Tories had no chance of winning, the decision was easy to make. But if Mr Cameron looks as if he could renew his lease on No. 10, the UKippers are going to have to think again. Are the seriously going to turn down a chance of voting in a referendum, and getting us out of the EU, just for the sake of giving the Tories a kicking?They can, of course, dig their heels in and assert that Mr Cameron is not to be trusted – "cast-iron Dave" has already reneged on his promise, and there is nothing to stop him from doing so again. And they may be right in their assessment, but if they don't take a chance, how will they ever know?On the other hand, they have to ask themselves what they are putting at risk. At the very worst, we end up with a Conservative government instead of a Labour administration led by Mr Miliband. And should then Mr Cameron then refuse a referendum, one can only imagine that the revenge would be terrible. One could then see UKIP in the 2020 election do real damage to the Tories.A more sanguine assessment, however, may advise caution in 2015. Although Mr Cameron might find it very hard to win an "in-out" referendum, it remains well within the capability of the anti-EU movement to lose it. Unable to unify behind a coherent exit plan, or agree a campaign strategy, one can easily see the bickering groupuscules so alienating the electorate that the vote goes Mr Cameron's way by default.The real judgement call we may have to make, therefore, is not whether there will be a referendum but whether we can win one. If on balance we feel that the chances of winning are slight, then we would be better off voting against the Tories in the 2015 general election, in order to stop Mr Cameron giving us a referendum.Therein lies the ultimate irony. The "eurosceptics" may decide to vote UKIP to block a referendum that we can't win, not least because UKIP itself will so damage the cause that it will stop us winning. Thus we end up staying in the EU, to protect us from the risk of losing a vote which will take us out. In other words, we must stay in to keep alive any hope that we can some day leave.One might suggest here, that in the long list of the things that one couldn't make up, this has to be pretty close to the top.





