The devastating civil war that began in Syria in March 2011 is the result of complex interrelated factors. The focus of the conflict is regime change, but the triggers include a broad set of religious and sociopolitical factors, the erosion of the economic health of the country, a wave of political reform sweeping over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Levant region, and challenges associated with climate variability and change and the availability and use of freshwater. As described here, water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. There is a long history of conflicts over water in these regions because of the natural water scarcity, the early development of irrigated agriculture, and complex religious and ethnic diversity. In recent years, there has been an increase in incidences of water-related violence around the world at the subnational level attributable to the role that water plays in development disputes and economic activities. Because conflicts are rarely, if ever, attributable to single causes, conflict analysis and concomitant efforts at reducing the risks of conflict must consider a multitude of complex relationships and contributing factors. This paper assesses the complicated connections between water and conflict in Syria, looks more broadly at future climate-related risks for water systems, and offers some water management strategies for reducing those risks.

1. Introduction Section: Choose Top of page Abstract 1.Introduction << 2.Historical background: ... 3.Recent drought, agricul... 4.The role of climate cha... 5.Strategies for reducing... 6.Conclusions REFERENCES CITING ARTICLES Syria’s political difficulties and the ongoing civil war there are the result of complex interrelated factors, including religious and sociopolitical tensions, the erosion of the economic health of the country, and a wave of political reform sweeping over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Levant regions. As described here, water and climatic conditions are also relevant because of the role they have played in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions. There is a long history of conflicts over water—documented in history, myths, legends, and more modern academic analysis and media reporting. Much of this work focuses on conflict between nation-states (Gleick 1993; Yoffe et al. 2003; Toset et al. 2000; Wolf 2007). Early examples of these connections can be found in the Middle East and Levant region (typically defined as the eastern Mediterranean between Turkey and Egypt, including parts of modern southern Turkey, Syria, western Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, and Palestine) (Gleick 1994; Kliot 1994; Lonergan 1997). Data and analysis related to water conflicts have been developed by researchers in various places, including the Pacific Institute, Oregon State University, Uppsala University, the Peace Research Institute of Oslo, and others. For example, the Pacific Institute maintains an online, searchable chronology of such conflicts going back around 4500 years (the Water Conflict Chronology can be found at http://www.worldwater.org/conflict.html). Water-related conflicts occur in many forms, including disputes over access to water and the control of water systems, the targeting of water infrastructure and systems during conventional conflicts and terrorist actions, and the use of water as a weapon. In recent years, there has been an increase in violence over the role that water plays in development disputes and economic activities. Conflicts of any kind are rarely, if ever, attributable to single causes. As such, any analysis or efforts at reducing the risks of conflict must consider a multitude of complex relationships and contributing factors, including water. One recent example of a major conflict with complicated but direct connections to water is the unraveling of Syria and the escalation of massive civil war there. This paper reviews these links, discusses the growing threat to regional water systems from climatic changes, and offers strategies for reducing the risks of water-related violence.

5. Strategies for reducing climate and water-related conflict risks Section: Choose Top of page Abstract 1.Introduction 2.Historical background: ... 3.Recent drought, agricul... 4.The role of climate cha... 5.Strategies for reducing... << 6.Conclusions REFERENCES CITING ARTICLES Reducing the risks of water-related conflicts requires reducing the pressures on water resources that contribute to economic, social, political, and environmental disruptions. In the MENA region, the heavy dependence of local economies and employment on agricultural production means that efforts to improve the productivity of water use to produce higher yields and income with less water will help cut pressure on the shared waters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. In Syria, the added likelihood of rising temperatures and reduced surface flows due to climate changes make it even more urgent that long-term agricultural reforms be put in place when some kind of political stability returns, including sustainable groundwater management, more modern irrigation technologies, and a review of crop types and planting patterns. Overpumping of groundwater is not sustainable, but few regions of the world have managed to bring abstraction and recharge into balance. Doing so through economic, regulatory, and management policies is necessary if long-term sustainable water use is going to be a reality. Equally important, however, is the need for successful negotiation of international agreements on allocations and use of the major transnational rivers and discussions about proposals for new dam and irrigation projects on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Few such agreements are in place in the MENA region and growing demands for these resources will make it progressively more difficult to reach agreements over time. As a further complication, few international water agreements include mechanisms for addressing changing social, economic, or climatic conditions. Negotiations over the allocation of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, for example, could include adjustable allocations strategies, water quality standards, response strategies for extreme events such as droughts and floods, amendment and review procedures in the event of disputes, and joint management institutions (Cooley and Gleick 2011).

6. Conclusions Section: Choose Top of page Abstract 1.Introduction 2.Historical background: ... 3.Recent drought, agricul... 4.The role of climate cha... 5.Strategies for reducing... 6.Conclusions << REFERENCES CITING ARTICLES The Syrian conflict that began in 2012 has many roots, including long-standing political, religious, and social ideological disputes; economic dislocations from both global and regional factors; and worsening environmental conditions. This paper argues that key environmental factors include both direct and indirect consequences of water shortages, ineffective watershed management, and the impacts of climate variability and change on regional hydrology. Severe multiyear drought beginning in the mid-2000s, combined with inefficient and often unmodernized irrigation systems and water abstractions by other parties in the eastern Mediterranean, including especially Syria, contributed to the displacement of large populations from rural to urban centers, food insecurity for more than a million people, and increased unemployment—with subsequent effects on political stability. There is some evidence that the recent drought is an early indicator of the climatic changes that are expected for the region, including higher temperature, decreased basin rainfall and runoff, and increased water scarcity. Absent any efforts to address population growth rates, these water-related factors are likely to produce even greater risks of local and regional political instability, unless other mechanisms for reducing water insecurity can be identified and implemented. In the region as a whole, new dam construction, growing water withdrawals, and limited political cooperation on water issues may become even more important in coming years. Among the key options available to policy makers are improvements in water-use efficiency and productivity in agriculture, better management and monitoring of groundwater resources, and comprehensive international agreements on managing and sharing the rivers that cross political borders.

Acknowledgments I would like to thank my colleagues at the Pacific Institute for their comments on this work, and the constructive suggestions of three anonymous reviewers. All errors are, of course, my own.