The cold spring in Ukraine brings warning of an imminent renewal of combat in the civil war. Former NATO commander U.S. Gen. Wesley Clark returned last month from a fact-finding journey to Kiev to convey to the Atlantic Council, a foreign affairs think tank in Washington, that authorities there expect a Russian-led separatist offensive to launch sometime before the Russian celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Nazis’ surrender in World War II, on Victory Day, May 9. A Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) officer recently told a Kiev television audience to expect Russian terrorist activity on or about Orthodox Easter, which was April 12. Moscow is reportedly most concerned with the prospect of a new round of fighting beginning sometime during or after the May 9 festivities across Russia. Meanwhile, the Germans in particular and Europeans in general have lost patience with the American efforts to sustain and rearm the poorly managed government of President Petro Poroshenko, and the fractious, threatening Rada. In the event of renewed fighting on the Donbass front, Berlin may well sign off on the Kremlin pressing its battlefield advantage to end the combat. Included in this increasingly complicated battlefield, however, are 300 U.S. paratroopers who just arrived to train the forces fighting pro-Russian separatists. There can now be no doubt that the unstable Ukraine crisis is pointing to the increasing likelihood of confrontation and worse between NATO and Russian forces.

Minsk II under assault

The Feb. 11 Minsk II agreement that initiated a ceasefire and established a path to reconciliation is under assault from all sides. In Kiev, Poroshenko has rejected the idea of “federalization” for Ukraine that was a major component of the Minsk II resolution. Poroshenko even said the idea of federalization was “like an infection, a biological weapon.” Separatist leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic quickly dismissed Poroshenko’s remarks and complained that they have been cut out of negotiations about constitutional reforms. Poroshenko is also going out of his way to irritate the two critical powers of Minsk II, Berlin and Moscow, as the Victory Day celebration approaches. “Hitler together with Stalin initiated the bloody fighting of World War II,” Poroshenko said at a memorial service for victims of totalitarianism, the Bykivnia Graves memorial near Kiev, “and then tried to divide and split Europe.” American politicians routinely speak provocatively against Russia. On his recent visit to Kiev, Republican Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said “This conflict is not merely a Russian assault on Ukraine’s freedom and democracy, but an assault on fundamental principles of international law that threatens peace and security in Europe and the international order.”

‘I believe the Russians are mobilizing right now for a war that they think is going to happen in five or six years.’ Ben Hodges U.S. general

More threatening to Minsk II are the NATO preparations for a conflict not only in Ukraine but also along the Russian frontier from the Black Sea basin to the Baltic. In the Black Sea, The American destroyer USS Jason Dunham exercised with Romanian corvette ROS Sebastian. At the same time, the head of the national security council in Kiev has the backing of Poroshenko to seek NATO membership speedily as the answer to Russia. In Eastern Europe, NATO put on a display of land power called “Dragoon Ride,” a theatrical convoy of armored vehicles through six NATO member states. More provocatively, elements of the US Army’s 173rd Airborne Brigade have deployed to Yavoriv, Ukraine, on the Polish border, to train hundreds of Ukrainian National Guardsmen. This is a significant development in the conflict, because it was the Ukrainian National Guard units that did the hardest fighting against the Russian-led separatists along the Donbass front lines. The Ukranian national guard units are also said to contain neo-fascist elements, such as the Azov Battalion, who are politically problematic for Kiev’s image in Europe. These units are now part of the regular Ukrainian Army. In fact, it is said that the national guard is the whole of the army, since the regulars melted away after the Debaltseve catastrophe last February. The most alarming challenge to Minsk II is the battlefront, where monitors from the Organization of Security and Co-operation in Europe routinely report violations around the Donetsk Airport and on the approaches toward the port city of Mariupol. The reports include details consistent with the use of heavy weapons that were supposedly banished from the front lines. Both sides look to be testing response times while probing for weak points. There are also repeated mentions of anti-aircraft fire against surveillance drones.

Increasing risk of war