Ukip victory would drive Scots away

Almost one in five voters say they will be more likely to back Scottish independence if Ukip wins this week’s European Parliament election, according to an ICM survey for the Scotsman.

Of those surveyed, 18% said a Ukip victory across the United Kingdom would make them more likely to vote Yes, versus 8% who said it would make them more likely to vote No.

Polling has suggested Ukip will fall a couple percentage points shy of winning an MEP in Scotland after the election on 22 May, but Nigel Farage’s party is widely expected to sweep into first or second place across the UK – potentially swaying the outcome of September’s independence referendum.

It is the final electoral test in Scotland before the referendum.

Labour and the SNP are almost guaranteed to hold onto their two seats each, while the Conservatives plan to cling on to their sole Scottish MEP.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats’ incumbent MEP George Lyon, whose campaign has championed the benefits of the EU to Scotland’s jobs market and trade, is perceived by pundits to have the most vulnerable seat.

Opinion polling illustrates a three-way battle between the SNP, Ukip, and the Scottish Greens for that Lib Dem seat.

The Scotsman poll gives the SNP a 9-point lead over Labour on 36% and 27% respectively, well ahead of the Conservatives on 13%.

It puts Ukip on 9%, closely followed by the Lib Dems and Greens on 7% each – a margin so narrow that any of the three could wind up in fourth place.

The SNP hopes it will win three seats in the election, which would see Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh become Scotland’s first Asian MEP.

On Saturday, she said that people in Scotland “simply do not buy into Ukip’s nasty, damaging agenda” and that Farage’s comments on LBC radio last Friday “will quite rightly disgust people across Scotland who want our country to be a welcoming, tolerant place to live”.

Farage was grilled over comments that he feels “uncomfortable” when languages other than English are spoken near him on train journeys, and that he would feel anxious if Romanians were to move in next door to him.

He has since gone on to defend his comments, citing crime statistics and saying that “any normal and fair-minded person would have a perfect right to be concerned if a group of Romanian people moved in next door”.

In the wake of a major anti-Ukip protest in the Scottish capital just over a week ago, the Ukip leader insisted that his party is still poised to win one of Scotland’s six seats in the European Parliament – “[and] if things go really well, possibly even two”.

The Scottish Green Party believes it can overcome pollsters’ predictions and beat Ukip in the election, making new in-roads into Brussels.

The party’s defiant top candidate, Edinburgh councillor Maggie Chapman, has said she “passionately [believes] that the movement of people between countries is good for our society and economy”.

At their campaign launch earlier this month, Green co-convenor Patrick Harvie MSP added: “Ukip is well off the radar in Scotland. But there’s a real risk that blanket coverage of Farage and co. in England will give it a boost here that it does not merit. While I’m confident that people in Scotland will continue to reject Ukip at the polls, the most potent way to do that is to back the Scottish Greens as the party which stands in greatest contrast to Ukip.”

The European Parliament election takes place in Scotland on 22 May and the result will be declared on 26 May.