More than 100,000 EU citizens left Britain in the three months after the EU referendum, new figures showed this week.

New worker registrations from Poland are down 16 per cent year on year, Hungary down 14 per cent, and Slovakia down 20 per cent.

After a Brexit vote in which a primary concern was too much immigration, some might be applauding the trend, but for important UK industries it is already creating a serious problem, and one that provides a preview of what may be to come for the wider economy.

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While more people are still arriving than leaving, businesses worry the numbers will not be enough to fill vacancies.

The UK’s growing hospitality sector should be a Brexit winner. A record 37 million tourists visited in 2016 as the pound plunged. But many hotels, restaurants and bars are already finding it tough to recruit the EU nationals that make up a large proportion of the industry’s 4.9 million workers.

While the weakened pound means a juicy discount for wealthy American or Chinese visitors dining at the Ritz or stocking up on designer brands in West End boutiques, it also hands a 15 per cent pay cut to the largely foreign workers that tend to those tourists’ needs.

The Government’s lack of clarity on the future of EU migrants in the UK is also damaging, says Ufi Ibrahim, chief executive of the British Hospitality Association.

“People don’t want to pack up their lives and move to the UK if they could end up having to go back again very soon.” Ibrahim says. It’s not only waiters and bartenders who are put off. Even top chefs are turning down jobs in London, Ibrahim says.

“Then there is that sense of being unwelcom”, something which has been fuelled by damaging statements from government ministers, she adds.

Millions of pound of taxpayers' money spent on efforts to encourage people to come to the UK through organisations like Visit Britain and the British Council will “all be flushed away” if ministers don’t adopt a welcoming tone towards migrant workers, Ibrahim says.

Further down the food supply chain, agriculture has an even more acute problem. John Hardman runs Hops Labour Solutions, which recruits around 12,000 of the country’s 85,000 seasonal farm workers, almost all of whom are from Eastern Europe, primarily Romania and Bulgaria.

In 14 years in the business he says that he had never had a problem finding willing hands, but in the July to September following the referendum the flow of migrants from Eastern Europe into the fields of East Anglia, Kent and the Midlands slowed, leaving him with 400 positions left unfilled.

This was in the summer season and problems are worse in winter. The devalued pound has made the prospect of “picking Brussels sprouts at minus 4 degrees in December with a sideways wind” even less attractive than it was before, he says.

“There’s only so sexy you can make that job. The same applies to hacking meat in an abattoir for 40 hours a week.”

Hardman believes the shortfall is increasing. So far in 2017 he has seen a 30 per cent rise in farms needing his services, he says.

“What this tells me is that those farms that were recruiting themselves are now struggling to find the workers. It’s a big uplift year-on-year.”

Problems had begun before the referendum. The first wave of migrants to fill Britain’s fruit-picking fields from the eight countries that joined the EU in 2004 moved on to other jobs once their aspirations rose and the same is now happening with the EU’s latest additions from Romania and Bulgaria, Hardman says.

Brexit has significantly hastened the process after a rise in anti-immigrant sentiment left scars that have yet to heal.

“The Romanian press love a story of a Romanian having a good thrashing in Birmingham,” Hardman says. Such attacks are rare and the post-referendum spike has apparently ended, but people’s memories are long, he says.

Romanians and Bulgarians are still arriving, but not in great enough numbers to replace the previous wave of migrant farm workers who've moved on.

Beverly Dixon, head of human resources at G’s, one of the largest vegetable producers in the UK, says the company has had to work much harder this year to recruit the 2,500 temporary workers it needs.

“Even though these guys are seasonal, they’ve had guaranteed work year after year but now they think they’re not going to be able to come here in two year’s time so they are heading to Germany, Holland and even Norway instead,” Dixon says.

G's operation also supports 1,600 permanent jobs here. "Those could all be in trouble if we cant get the temporary workers", she says.

There is an apparently simple solution to this dilemma: hire more UK workers.

But that's not possible, Dixon says. G’s land in Cambridgeshire is in an area of almost full employment. No one locally is going to give up their full-time job for a seasonal one.

Hardman agrees. “We pick strawberries in Kent where almost no one is unemployed. How do I get those on social welfare from Hull to work down there? And where do I house them?”

The problem is the same in the hospitality industry, where many vacancies are in the South-east.

“Any restriction on availability in an economy where we are nearing full employment is very, very concerning; it’s a high risk,” Ibrahim says.

Nationally, despite concerns about migrants taking jobs, unemployment stands at just 4.8 per cent. It has only dipped lower for two brief periods in the past 40 years. The workforce participation rate is also at a record high.

Hospitality and agriculture, with their high dependence on migrant labour, are the canary in the coal mine. Fashion and textiles, retail and social care all rely on talent from overseas.

James Reed, chief executive of Reed, one of the UK’s biggest recruitment agencies, says vacancies have hit record levels.

“With high employment and such a large number of opportunities on offer, the UK jobs market has turned into a seller’s market. If candidates from the EU are put off from applying for jobs in the UK due to Brexit, then the scales could tip even further,” he said.

There are solutions to the looming labour shortage but none will plug the immediate gap caused by a sharp drop in inward migration.

The British Hospitality Association is working hard with Government to raise the profile and prestige of careers in hospitality so that they attract more British workers. It promotes the industry in schools and backs apprenticeships and training, with the aim of putting hospitality on a par with other professions, as it is in other European countries, but Ibrahim says this is at least a ten-year plan, requiring a significant cultural shift.

Shape Created with Sketch. Brexit Concerns Show all 26 left Created with Sketch. right Created with Sketch. Shape Created with Sketch. Brexit Concerns 1/26 Brexit will put British patients at 'back of the queue' for new drugs Brexit will put British patients at the “back of the queue” for vital new drugs, the Government has been warned – forcing them to wait up to two years longer A medicines regulator has raised the alarm over a likely decision to pull out of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), as well as the EU itself. ealth Secretary Jeremy Hunt dropped the bombshell , when he said he expected the UK would quit the EMA – because it is subject to rulings by the European Court of Justice. Getty Images 2/26 London to lose status as 'gateway to Europe' for banks One of Germany’s top banking regulators has warned that London could lose its status as “gateway to Europe” for the banking sector after Britain quits the European trading bloc. 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Jason Hawkes 3/26 Exodus The number of financial sector professionals in Britain and continental Europe looking for jobs in Ireland rocketed in the months after the UK voted to leave the European Union Shutterstock 4/26 Brexit is making FTSE 100 executives richer Pay packages of many FTSE 100 chief executive officers are partly tied to how well share prices are doing rather than the CEO’s performance -- and some stocks are soaring. ritish equities got a boost since the June vote because the likes of Rio Tinto, Smiths Group and WPP generate most sales abroad and earn a fortune when they convert these revenues back into the weakened pound. Sterling’s fall also made UK stocks more affordable for overseas investors. Rex 5/26 Theresa May: UK to leave single market Theresa May has said the UK "cannot possibly" remain within the European single market, as staying in it would mean "not leaving the EU at all". 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Getty Images 2/26 London to lose status as 'gateway to Europe' for banks One of Germany’s top banking regulators has warned that London could lose its status as “gateway to Europe” for the banking sector after Britain quits the European trading bloc. Andreas Dombret, who is an executive board member for the Bundesbank—Germany’s central bank—told a private meeting of German businesses and banks earlier this week in Frankfurt that even if banking rules were “equivalent” between the UK and the rest of the EU, that was still “miles away from [Britain having] access to the single market”, the BBC reports. Jason Hawkes 3/26 Exodus The number of financial sector professionals in Britain and continental Europe looking for jobs in Ireland rocketed in the months after the UK voted to leave the European Union Shutterstock 4/26 Brexit is making FTSE 100 executives richer Pay packages of many FTSE 100 chief executive officers are partly tied to how well share prices are doing rather than the CEO’s performance -- and some stocks are soaring. ritish equities got a boost since the June vote because the likes of Rio Tinto, Smiths Group and WPP generate most sales abroad and earn a fortune when they convert these revenues back into the weakened pound. Sterling’s fall also made UK stocks more affordable for overseas investors. Rex 5/26 Theresa May: UK to leave single market Theresa May has said the UK "cannot possibly" remain within the European single market, as staying in it would mean "not leaving the EU at all". Getty 6/26 Lead campaigner Gina Miller and her team outside the High Court Getty 7/26 Raymond McCord holds up his newly issued Irish passport alongside his British passport outside the High Court in Belfast following a judges dismissal of the UK's first legal challenges to Brexit PA wire 8/26 SDLP leader Colum Eastwood leaving the High Court in Belfast following a judges dismissal of the UK's first legal challenges to Brexit PA wire 9/26 Migrants with luggage walk past a graffiti on a wall as they leave the 'Jungle' migrant camp, as part of a major three-day operation planned to clear the camp in Calais Getty 10/26 Migrants leave messages on their tents in the Jungle migrant camp Getty 11/26 The Adventist Development and Relief Agency (Adra) which distributes approximately 700 meals daily in the northern Paris camp states that it is noticing a spike in new migrant arrivals this week, potentially linked the the Calais 'jungle' camp closure - with around 1000 meals distributed today EPA 12/26 Migrant workers pick apples at Stocks Farm in Suckley, Britain Reuters 13/26 Many farmers across the country are voicing concerns that Brexit could be a dangerous step into the unknown for the farming industry Getty 14/26 Bank of England governor Mark Carney who said the long-term outlook for the UK economy is positive, but growth was slowing in the wake of the Brexit vote PA 15/26 The Dow Jones industrial average closed down over 600 points on the news with markets around the globe pluninging Getty 16/26 Immigration officers deal with each member of the public seeking entry into the United Kingdom but on average, 10 a day are refused entry at this London airport and between 2008 and 2009, 33,100 people were detained at the airport for mainly passport irregularities Getty 17/26 A number of global investment giants have threatened to move their European operations out of London if Brexit proves to have a negative impact on their businesses Getty 18/26 Following the possibility of a Brexit the UK would be released from its renewable energy targets under the EU Renewable Energy Directive and from EU state aid restrictions, potentially giving the government more freedom both in the design and phasing out of renewable energy support regimes Getty 19/26 A woman looking at a chart showing the drop in the pound (Sterling) against the US Dollar in London after Britain voted to leave the EU Getty 20/26 Young protesters outside the Houses of Parliament in Westminster, to protest against the United Kingdom's decision to leave the EU following the referendum Getty 21/26 Applications from Northern Ireland citizens for Irish Passports has soared to a record high after the UK Voted in favour of Leaving the EU Getty 22/26 NFU Vice President Minette Batters with Secretary of State, Andrea Leadsome at the National Farmers Union (NFU) took machinery, produce, farmers and staff to Westminster to encourage Members of Parliament to back British farming, post Brexit Getty 23/26 The latest reports released by the UK Cabinet Office warn that expats would lose a range of specific rights to live, to work and to access pensions, healthcare and public services. The same reports added that UK citizens abroad would not be able to assume that these rights will be guaranteed in the future Getty 24/26 A British resident living in Spain asks questions during an informative Brexit talk by the "Brexpats in Spain" group, about Spanish legal issues to become Spanish citizens, at the town hall in Benalmadena, Spain Reuters 25/26 The collapse of Great Britain appears to have been greatly exaggerated given the late summer crowds visiting city museums, hotels, and other important tourist attractions Getty 26/26 The U.K. should maintain European Union regulations covering everything from working hours to chemicals until after the government sets out its plans for Brexit, said British manufacturers anxious to avoid a policy vacuum and safeguard access to their biggest export market Getty

In a speech in Tallinn earlier this week, Brexit Secretary David Davis said “it will be years and years before we get British citizens to do those jobs” in sectors requiring low-skilled labour.

For farm work, both Hardman and Dixon are calling for a programme of temporary work visas for people from countries outside the EU, such as Ukraine and Turkey.

In the same speech David Davis seemed to back that idea, but it will be difficult to square with the desire for greatly reduced immigration that was one of the major factors behind the victory for the Leave campaign.

The alternatives to using migrant labour were rarely mentioned on the campaign trail – either British agriculture moves abroad or, somewhat ironically, more British workers will have to start picking Brussels sprouts at sub-zero temperatures in December.

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