2016 record: 9–3 (5–3 ACC)

Final CFP rank: 11

The first weekend of the season should indicate whether the Seminoles were a smart choice here. Florida State will meet one of the four teams ineligible for this list, national runner-up Alabama, in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sept. 2. If quarterback Deondre Francois, running backs Jacques Patrick and Cam Akers and the rest of the Seminoles’ offense bulldozes the Crimson Tide defense, Florida State should pile up points with minimal fuss against most of the teams it faces in the ACC. And if safety Derwin James, cornerback Tarvarus McFadden, defensive end Josh Sweat and the rest of Florida State’s defense shuts down the Alabama offense, it should stifle the majority of the attacks it meets in conference play. Don’t bet on either scenario. This should be a close, hard-fought battle between two juggernauts that’ll likely turn on a few late plays and could serve as a preview of a College Football Playoff semifinal or championship bout.

Getting past Alabama is the most daunting task the Seminoles will need to execute during the regular season, but it should be relatively smooth sailing after that until November, when they’ll travel to Death Valley for the annual de-facto Atlantic Division title tilt against Clemson. Florida State could well run the table, though that looked like a distinct possibility at this point last off-season, and then the Seminoles ran into Lamar Jackson. Don’t expect them to suffer another 43-point loss in 2017. Even a double-digit defeat would register as a surprise.