In many cases the fastest race laps are also now approaching all-time historic highs

In many cases the fastest race laps are also now approaching all-time historic highs – notwithstanding many of the old benchmarks being set on new tyres and low fuel from back in the days of refuelling. Of course, any assessment of fastest laps is more vulnerable to anomalies than qualifying times – but the trend is nevertheless clear.

But with a target of a five-second-per-lap improvement relative to 2015 – and the historical tendency for teams to find more performance than expected under new rules – why are this year’s car not even faster than they actually are?

First, there was a prudent caution applied to how the rules were formulated. Targets were established two years before the rules came into force and, as the regulations evolved, some of the initial freedoms where whittled away, with the prevailing opinion that it was better to under-hit the five second improvement and allow the teams to grow into the new generation of rules, rather than overshoot and limit future development potential. The cautious expectation is that the cars will be another second a half faster by 2018…

Second, the improvement will naturally vary from circuit to circuit. Overall, approximately 60% of the improvement relative to 2015 has come from the new aerodynamic regulations, 30% from the larger tyres and 10% from the power unit. At circuit with high aerodynamic sensitivity and a low power focus, such as Barcelona, gains will be greater than at circuits that are more power sensitive – and where long straights also penalise the higher drag levels of the 2017 cars. Lap time differences will also naturally be greater at longer, aero-sensitive circuits (such as Spa-Francorchamps or Suzuka) than at power-sensitive venues favouring low drag, such as Monza. The full picture will only become clear once the season is complete.