Opinions have been justifiably mixed over recent months; many arguing that our squad is – man for man – stronger than it has been for years, while others rightfully point to our appalling results and grim league standing and make the counter argument. So, are we worse? Let’s look at the statistics.

How does this work? Well, I’m looking at match statistics (as provided by Squawka) from Leeds’ 23 matches in the 2014/15 season and comparing them to those collected in the 2012/13 campaign. To make this fair, I’m looking at data on a per-match average basis.

What this doesn’t take into account is any change in tactics, manager or associated form – because that’s not what I’m measuring. I’m not specifically looking at Redfearn vs. Milanic vs. Hockaday in this piece (that comes later!), instead I’m merely directly comparing whether Leeds United 2014/15 are worse than their 2013/14 ancestors. I will be doing more statistical pieces, this is just the first look at things from a more holistic viewpoint.

The 2013/14 data is aggregated from 46 league matches and distilled down into a per-match average. The same is done for 2014/15, just with 23 matches of data to aggregate. Except where I state otherwise that is. Got it? Good. Let’s begin.

Are our results worse after 23 matches?

Looking at the Statto Football League table from 29/12/2013 the following was true:

Leeds United were 7th

Won 10, drawn 5, lost 8

Scored 34, conceded 26

+8 goal difference

35 points

Looking at the same data for the table as it stood after 23 matches(26/12/2014) the following is true:

Leeds United were 20th

Won 6, drawn 6, lost 11

Scored 25, conceded 34

-9 goal difference

24 points

So the answer to that question is a very obvious, resounding yes. Were are 13 places lower, we have won 4 fewer games, lost 3 more, scored 9 less, conceded 8 more and have 9 points less. So from a purely results-centric perspective, Leeds United this season are far worse than they were at the same point last season (after 23 matches). But we know we had a good pre-Christmas run last year, so let’s look at things a little differently.

Are our results worse per-match after 23 games compared to the entirety of last season?

Looking at average statistics like “points per game”, “goals per game” and “conceded per game”, we can normalise the data and compare how the current Leeds team is performing against average data from last season.

Last season averages:

57/46 = 1.24 points per game

1.28 goals scored per game

1.46 goals conceded per game

This season averages:

24/23 = 1.04 points per game

1.09 goals scored per game

1.47 goals conceded per game

The answer to that question is too, sadly, a resounding yes. We’re 0.2 points per game worse off, scoring 0.19 goals per game less but conceding at more-or-less the same rate. So our defense doesn’t appear to be statistically much worse looking at this, but we’re not scoring which is resulting in a much lower points haul. Onwards into more stats!

Are we a better passing side than last season?

Looking at per-game averages from last season vs. the same data from this season, we can look at stats like the direction of the pass, the length, the number and the completion ratio. From this we’ll get a handle on whether we’re passing the ball better. So, are we?

Forward passes – we’re making 34.28 more forward passes per game

Backward passes – we’re making 28.24 more backward passes per game

Total passes – we’re making 62.98 more passes per game

Chances created – we’re creating 0.72 fewer chances

Key passes – we’re making 0.40 fewer key passes per match

Pass completion – we’re 6% higher than last season (78% vs 72%)

Pass length – our passes are 1.69 metres shorter on average

What can we derive from that? We’re making a lot more passes in general, both forwards and backwards, but we’re creating fewer chances and making fewer passes that could go on to create chances. We’re obviously playing more passing-focused football too, evidenced by the shorter length and higher success ratio. So we’re getting the ball to the intended recipient better, but we’re doing worse at trying to win a football match with those passes.

Is our attacking play better than last season?

Using the same methodology, I’m going to look at average stats to attempt to understand how we compare.

Total shots – we’re making 1.43 shots fewer per game

Shot accuracy – we have 2% lower shot accuracy

Goals scored – we’re scoring 0.19 fewer goals per match

Each of those stats is worse than the 2013/14 season average so you’ve got to say we’re worse here, too.

Is our defense worse than last season?

Our defensive statistics are never something I look at expecting happiness, but let’s look at the numbers!

Errors leading to goals – amazingly, we’re making 0.05 fewer errors leading to goals per match

Defensive errors – although generally, we’re making 0.06 more errors

Clearances – we’re making 7.87 fewer clearances per match

Interceptions – we’re making 5.13 more per match

Blocks – we’re making 1 more per match

Pretty inconclusive in raw terms, because is it better to make clearances than to make interceptions? Interceptions sound like you’re breaking down an attack before you need to clear the ball, but we’re making more mistakes. But let’s not forget that we’ve already proven that we’re basically conceding the same number of goals per match, so you can’t really prove that the defense is any better or worse than last season (only conceding one hundredth more goals this season).

Is our goalkeeping worse than last season?

Marco Silvestri is a popular figure amongst Leeds fans – albeit his stock has dropped recently due to some poor blunders and the increasing realisation that many simple errors have been caused by him not commanding his area. So is Marco doing better than our various candidates last season? Let’s look.

Clean sheets – identical statistics on average

Goals conceded – 0.02 more per game

Saves – Marco is making 0.40 more saves per game

Saves per goal – Marco is making 0.25 more saves per goal

Distribution accuracy – no surprise, Marco is 12% worse

Distribution length – again, no surprise, it’s 13 metres shorter on average

So is our goalkeeping worse? No. I’d say it’s better. We’re conceding the same amount (ish), but making more saves. Marco’s passing is worse – but our passing as a team is holistically more accurate. So on that basis I’d say no, our goalkeeping is not worse.

So, are we a worse side than last season?

It’s hard to make an argument for “no” looking at this data. We’re creating fewer chances, scoring less, conceding more, picking up fewer points. We’re shooting less, hitting the target less and making more defensive mistakes. While we are passing better (in terms of accuracy) and we’re obviously trying to play “better” football, but thus far it hasn’t been bringing results.

In my next statistical piece I’ll be looking at things in a slightly more granular way – I’ve looked at “current vs. last year” here, I want to look at the recent Redfearn games and compare them to similar matches under Milanic, under Hockaday and perhaps the reverse fixture last season. If there’s something you’d like to see investigated, let me know on Twitter!

I still think we’re going to find our feet, but as things currently stand after 23 matches, we’re statistically worse in most areas. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Unless you’re Luke Varney, in which case I hope you’re savagely beaten for being a cheating little worm.