Deadlock Broken, Liberals Surging

SENIORS MOVE BACK TO LIBERALS IN A BIG WAY

[Ottawa – October 18, 2015] In a major development, the weekend reveals a late but clear movement to the Liberals. At 36 points, the Liberals have a four-point lead over the Conservatives and are now poised to recapture power after nearly a decade in the political wilderness. This movement is rooted in a shift of the critical seniors’ cohort and a strengthening of their lead in Ontario. It may well be that Hurricane Hazel was a key force in both of these movements.

The bigger picture: How did we get here?

We can say that this election has been qualitatively different than what it had been billed as. What was supposed to be an election that was all about the economy became an election that was all about the niqab. But the niqab gambit, which initially diverted voter attention from a moribund economy and elevated the Conservative prospects, has transformed further into a broader struggle about what values will define Canada in the future. This strategy may well have backfired on Stephen Harper as it may have awakened the progressive and moderate majority and caused senior Canada to rethink its commitment to his cause. The higher levels of emotional engagement expressed in more educated Canada may well trump the turnout advantage that Mr. Harper enjoyed with seniors in 2011 (which seems much weaker in 2015).

We have clear evidence that the public do not see this as a ‘business as usual’ election. In addition to telling us that they are much more emotionally engaged than usual, Canadians tell us the stakes in this election are very high and that their lives and the country’s trajectory will be different depending on what transpires tomorrow. While a debate about the economy was very important, a struggle about which values will define Canada in the future became even more important.

The public tell us that nothing will be more important than values in their final decision making. And while Mr. Harper wins public opinion around the niqab issue, he appears to have lost the broader values war he ignited. The critical fault lines are generational and social class/human capital. There are clearly more engaged voters on the progressive side of this broader values struggle than on the conservative side. They do, however, continue to be camped out across four progressive options which work strongly in favour of Mr. Harper. Unlike in 2011, the progressive voters are apparently more engaged and we predict more likely to show up.

The race has shown late upward movement for the Liberal Party, particularly in the critical Ontario arena.

Some areas of uncertainty

Will the Liberals trend further upward? Will cellphone-only households actually show up? Is the late senior conversion to the Liberals genuine? Why are Liberals higher with a live interviewer than with the robot? How will Quebec and British Columbia conclude?

Conclusion

So the stage is set for a momentous contest for the future of the country and which values will guide the future. The complex set of forces means the outcome is not certain. We do, however see a different result than in 2011.

Prediction

We have shifted from too close to call to a clearer prediction based on our latest data and final methodological deliberations. The Liberal Party of Canada is poised to return to power with at least a clear minority and possibly a majority. We will be offering a seat forecast tomorrow.

Methodology – Vote Intention

The data on federal vote intention involved a blended sample collected using two separate methodologies: Computer Assisted Live Interviews (CATI) and EKOS’ proprietary High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The figures in this report are based on a three-day rolling sample. Each day, a new day’s worth of interviewing is added and the oldest day is dropped. The field dates for this survey are October 16-18, 2015. In total, a random sample of 2,122 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey (1,524 by HD-IVR, 598 by live interviewer). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Methodology – Election Issues

This study was conducted using EKOS’ unique, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. Our panel offers exhaustive coverage of the Canadian population (i.e., Internet, phone, cell phone), random recruitment (in other words, participants are recruited randomly, they do not opt themselves into our panel), and equal probability sampling. All respondents to our panel are recruited by telephone using random digit dialling and are confirmed by live interviewers. Unlike opt-in online panels, Probit supports margin of error estimates. We believe this to be the only probability-based online panel in Canada.

The field dates for this survey are October 8-12, 2015. In total, a random sample of 1,124 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/- 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

Click here for the full report: Final Report (October 18, 2015)

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