President Bush has a lot to accomplish in tonight's State of the Union address. He needs to lay out a plausible agenda for his final year in office, justify a war that the American people overwhelmingly oppose, stave off a recession and persuade the nation and the world that he's not been a colossal failure.

But his biggest challenge may be getting anyone to pay attention in the first place.

Richard Wolf writes in USA Today that Bush will try to steal a page from Ronald Reagan's playbook: "Two decades ago, Reagan, in his last address to Congress, focused on legislation, not legacy. 'If anyone expects just a proud recitation of the accomplishments of my administration, I say let's leave that to history,' he said. 'We're not finished yet.'

"By year's end, Reagan had negotiated landmark trade, health care, welfare and immigration bills with a Democratic Congress and inked an arms deal with the Soviet Union. He also had helped pave the way for the election of his vice president: George H.W. Bush."

But, as Wolf writes: "Unlike Reagan, whose popularity hit a low during the Iran-contra affair in 1987 and was rebounding by 1988, Bush's poll ratings remain near their nadir. Americans concerned about Iraq now are worried about the economy. . . .

"'Any president has limited opportunities in the final months in office. That becomes particularly true when that president is mired in 30% approval ratings,' says Thomas Mann, a Brookings Institution scholar. Bush also will have trouble being heard above the din of the presidential campaign. 'This is not a talk to the nation, because the nation's not going to be listening,' he says."

Jack Torry writes in the Columbus Dispatch: "'This speech will have all the suspense of the 500th rerun of I Love Lucy,' said Jack Pitney, professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College in California.

"With Bush's approval rating hovering at 34 percent and most Americans focused on the intensely competitive race to succeed him, analysts are uncertain whether people will give anything more than cursory attention to the speech. They say there is little that Bush can say tonight to change the minds of those who either oppose him or support him.

"But some analysts suggest that the television audience might be larger than expected because Americans are gripped by anxiety because of the sluggish economy, the war in Iraq entering its sixth year and Osama bin Laden remaining at large.

"'The fact is the country is still at war and the country is facing a tough time economically with a great deal of uncertainty,' said Republican former Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio. 'Anytime you put those two things together, a president will continue to command attention.'

"David J. Leland, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, conceded that Americans might watch but not for the reason Bush wants.

"'There's always a crowd around an accident,' Leland quipped. . . .