Greetings. With the 2016 season in the books for the St. Louis Cardinals, thoughts immediately turn to the offseason planning and the team’s quest to return to the postseason after missing out for the first time since 2010.

Accordingly, I’ll be taking a look at some of the issues, problems, questions, areas of need and potential solutions as GM John Mozeliak and team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. turn their attention to 2017 …

Today:

The Cardinals have a $12 million option on starting pitcher Jaime Garcia for 2017. Should they exercise that option and bring him back next season, or pay the $500,000 buy-out and part ways? I’ve seen about 1,000 references to this being a “no brainer” decision. I don’t think so, but then again my brain tends to drift away from the standard St. Louis-sports Group-Think.

Let’s discuss:

You can see merit and wisdom on both sides of the question. A $12 million salary is certainly reasonable/affordable for a veteran starter that’s had some big-league success. Without Garcia, the Cardinals don’t have a lefty starter in the mix. As baseball people say:

You can never have enough starting pitching …

And …

You need to have a left-hander in the rotation.

Really? You want to stockpile starting pitching even if we’re talking about unreliable and/or mediocre starting pitching? And you must have a lefty even if said lefty could snap and break down at any moment — or, in the best-case scenario, run out of gas before the All-Star break?

But yeah, OK, rotation depth is a positive thing. If you pick up the option, then perhaps it’s possible to do a sign-and-trade, and flip Garcia to a pitching-needy team.

Sounds great!

Sounds so easy!

But after so many arm miseries and surgeries and obvious limitations on endurance, what’s the market for Garcia? How much salary would the Cardinals have to eat to move him in a sign-and-trade deal?

For whatever it’s worth: Garcia had 1.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2016; that WAR ranked 63rd among 71 qualifying big-league starters. And among MLB starters who made at least 30 starts in 2016, only one, Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson, had fewer quality starts (6) than Garcia’s 10. If this is your idea of a highly marketable commodity, well …

And here’s a historical nugget for you:

In Cardinals franchise history, there are 198 instances of a starting pitcher making a minimum of 30 starts in a season.

Of the 198 seasons of 30+ starts, guess who ranks last — that would be 198th — in delivering quality starts?

Yes, that would be Jaime Garcia with his 10 QS in 2016.

Consistency is an important attribute for a starting pitcher. Every team wants a great, dominant pitcher but there aren’t many around. The next-best thing is to have consistent quality. Having a starter pitch one magnificent start a month doesn’t do much for his team.

Garcia was a liability in 2016.

A few superb starts, and not much else.

When your team gets a quality start, it wins around 73 percent of those games. Garcia gave the Cardinals a quality start only 33 percent of the time, and that’s terrible. (FYI, the overall MLB quality-start rate was 47 percent in 2016.)

With so many surgeries and missed time, stamina is a real problem for Garcia. He started fading in June and had a 5.52 ERA over his last 19 starts. Over that time, Garcia allowed a .301 average, .357 OBP and .546 slugging pct. And his homers-against rate jumped to 1.96 per 9 innings. Among the 111 major-league starters that made a minimum of 15 starts after the end of May, Garcia ranked No. 101 with a 5.30 ERA.

Garcia’s strikeout-walk rate declined (significantly) from 2015.

He had a 5.16 starter ERA on the road, with a weak 2.29 K/BB ratio.

Unless the 2017 Cardinals convert to a six-man rotation — a worthy idea that won’t be implemented — Garcia won’t hold up physically in 2017.

So where does he fit into this rotation?

As of now, he doesn’t.

That’s what Mozeliak told me last week on my 101ESPN radio show.

Mozeliak made it clear that he wasn’t ruling anything out — injuries and unexpected developments happen — but under present circumstances Garcia won’t crack the five-man rotation.

The Cardinals tentatively envision a rotation of Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn, Alex Reyes and Mike Leake. Because of recurring shoulder problems, Michael Wacha’s role is unclear. The team is thinking about giving Trevor Rosenthal a chance to start (as they should.) Others in the pre-2017 mix include Luke Weaver, Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Mike Mayers. And the player-development system has another wave of promising young starting pitching on the way.

Garcia doesn’t profile as a reliever. The role is too hectic and physically debilitating for a rigid creature of habit with a history of arm trouble.

So what should the Cardinals do?

Do they really need to go another year with a pitcher who was the most inconsistent starter (minimum 30 starts) in a season in franchise history?

Sure, your team needs some starters to be ready to plug in during the season. If a Luke Weaver — now that he has some big-league experience — can’t be better in 2017 than Garcia was in 2016, then the Cardinals are lying to us about Weaver’s talent and potential. And unlike Garcia, a Luke Weaver can continue to gain experience and enhance his pitching while making regular starts at Triple A Memphis until you need him.

I am probably in the minority here with my opinion, but short of Mozeliak knowing he has definite trade options, I let Garcia walk. There’s got to be a better way to use that $12 million.

(Update: Garcia was traded to Atlanta for three prospects. Two, both pitchers, have potential.)

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

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