U.S. Priorities in Africa: Where is Somalia?

Brian Garrett-Glaser Blocked Unblock Follow Following Jul 22, 2015

It is interesting to note that many studies of U.S. priorities and interests in Africa fail to cite continued support and development of Somalia. On July 22, the Council on Foreign Relation’s John Campbell, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007, wrote a blog post on President Obama’s trip to East Africa, during which he will visit Ethiopia and Kenya. Campbell had this to say on U.S. interests in various African countries:

“Following Nigeria and South Africa, Ethiopia and Kenya are in the second tier of African states in terms of strategic importance to the United States. Both have been on the frontlines of the struggle against terrorism and have cooperated closely with the United States on a host of issues.”

If Ethiopia and Kenya are indeed in the “second tier of African states in terms of strategic importance to the United States,” which I believe is an accurate assessment, then Somalia cannot be far behind. Embroiled in a devastating civil war since 1991, Somalia is finally beginning to turn a corner. The Federal Republic of Somalia, with considerable help from African Union forces and U.S. drone strikes (the Somalis love drones!), has pushed Al Shabaab out of many areas of the country and is engaged in talks with various stakeholders to establish a federalist system and ratify a constitution.

In addition to the obvious security interests, there are numerous economic opportunities in Somalia that, with a little investment and continued advancements in security and rule of law, could prove quite profitable. Awale Kullane, chargé d’affaires for both Somalia’s embassy in Washington D.C. and its mission to the U.N. in New York, recently wrote on these opportunities in The Hill:

“An industry analysis conducted by Shuraako in 2013 conservatively estimated Somalia’s potential yearly sustainable catch to be 40,000 metric tons; from 1997–2006, Somali fishermen caught only 550 metric tons a year — barely one percent of its sustainable potential. Once our government has the capacity to protect its waters and establish a regulatory framework for the industry, Somalia’s coastline — the longest on the continent — will be ripe for investment and development.”

But even more important than the opportunities presented by Somalia’s fishing industry or undiscovered oil and gas reserves (one study estimates these to be 16 billion barrels and 260 Tcf respectively) are the benefits that a secure and thriving Somalia would provide to its neighbors. As Mr. Kullane notes:

“Our long coast and superior ports could prove very beneficial for our landlocked neighbors in East Africa — a booming shipping industry in Somalia will not only be beneficial to the Somali economy, but will also assist with the development of our neighbors.”

Ethiopia, Somalia’s landlocked neighbor, would benefit immensely from access to secure ports in Somalia as it develops and expands its exports. If continued economic expansion in Ethiopia and Kenya are desired results for the United States, which they are, then investing in Somalia provides a significant return-on-investment in terms of U.S. regional interests.

There is considerable work left to be done for Somalia to become a successful East African nation, but it would be wise for the United States to support to Somali government in its efforts. Recent military victories against Al Shabaab will only be cemented if the new government is able to provide economic opportunity to its citizens — the terrorist organization’s recruiting in northern Kenya and southern Somalia is successful largely because it pays far better than the few alternatives that are available. But as piracy off the Somali coast continues to drop, with only three attacks reported in 2014, the world can already see the tangible benefits of a more secure Somalia. Will the United States choose to invest in Somalia’s future? Purely in terms of self-interest, it’s an easy call.