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Nick Wass/Associated Press

Heading toward the second month of the NFL season, games become about matchups as much as talent. By now, we have a good idea of what teams' weaknesses and strengths are. The question for teams is whether they're built to exploit an opponent's weaknesses or stand up to its strengths.

I can still recall walking onto the field for the first game of the 2006 season. We were facing the Baltimore Ravens, Ray Lewis and one of the best front sevens I'd ever seen. We knew we didn't have the line to match up with that defensive front and win a physical battle, so for most of the offseason, we planned to try spreading the Ravens out and utilizing the hurry-up to take away some of that physical advantage.

About a week before the game, though, we switched up the game plan and decided to use two- and three-tight end sets to try to match the Ravens in the trenches. As I walked onto that field, I just had the feeling that there was no way we were going to be able to out-physical the biggest strength of the Baltimore defense. We couldn't. The Ravens wrecked us up front, and we got shut out at home in the opener.

This is a memory I keep in the back of my mind when trying to pick NFL games at this point in the season. Team talent is obviously important, but the right matchups are often the deciding factor.

This week we have a ton of great matchup-based games. Just look at Sunday night's contest between the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks. A struggling offense has been Seattle's biggest weakness in 2017, but do the Colts have a stout enough defense to take advantage?

To see how I believe that game—along with the other 15 from Week 4—will unfold, read on.