Day by day, South Africa's economy falls further into disrepair. Recent reports indicate the country's official unemployment rate has risen from 24.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016 to 26.7 percent in the second. The unofficial figure is probably closer to 50 percent. The loss of jobs is owed largely to the sharp decline of South Africa's mining sector, the cornerstone of the country's economy. In March, mining production fell by a record 18 percent as compared with March 2015. Meanwhile, Africa's most industrialized economy has slipped from second to third place on the continent in terms of nominal gross domestic product, thanks in part to the volatility of the country's currency, the rand. According to data from the International Monetary Fund, South Africa has now fallen behind Egypt, a blow to the country's image as the powerhouse of Africa.

Economic stagnation has caused tensions to flare among South African voters, putting the ruling party in a bind in the lead-up to the country's Aug. 3 vote. Rival parties stand to make some notable gains in the municipal elections, particularly in areas where the ANC's support is traditionally strong. The center-right Democratic Alliance, for instance, could make a successful bid in large metropolitan cities such as Port Elizabeth and Pretoria, potentially a heavy symbolic loss for the ruling party. Moreover, the far-left Marxist-nationalist Economic Freedom Fighters party is poised to make further inroads into one of the ANC's most important support bases: South Africa's impoverished majority.

These impending losses are no doubt worrisome to ANC leaders, who fear that major cities may be difficult to win back. More important, though, a sweeping victory by the country's opposition parties would signal the loosening of the ANC's viselike grip on South African politics — something the ruling party will seek to prevent at any cost.

A Chance to Stall

But the ANC may not have to look far to find a solution to its predicament. The country's Independent Electoral Commission is considering postponing the municipal elections until 2019, according to Stratfor sources. Though the commission is unlikely to follow through with the move, it cannot be completely ruled out. Commission officials announced May 9 that they could not use the national statistics service's address system, adding that the information on record for South African voters' addresses is "unreliable." In other words, the government has no way to credibly establish the locations of millions of poor South Africans, most of whom live in shantytowns built with little to no urban planning. Because this also means election officials cannot build an accurate voter registration list, the municipal races would fail to meet the electoral standards required by the South African Constitution. The country's Constitutional Court ruled on a similar issue, albeit on a much smaller scale, in November 2015, when it declared that 2013 by-elections in Tlokwe were not free and fair because of erroneous voter information. To avoid comparable problems with the legitimacy of the municipal elections, the Independent Electoral Commission may ask for them to be pushed back to give officials more time to meet the constitutional requirements.

If the commission, which is officially nonpartisan, tries to delay the vote until 2019, the decision would appear to greatly benefit the ruling party — at least in the short run. Even though the suspension of elections would likely cause some initial unrest, the ANC may see it as a way to keep from losing voters' support on a historic scale. This could, in turn, avoid reinforcing the image that the party is weakening and keep its internal fissures from widening. Instead, a delay would give the ANC time to regroup in the face of mounting pressure to enact change, especially since global commodity prices — and by extension, the South African economy — could rebound by 2019 regardless of the ANC's policies. There is no guarantee that the delay would pay off for the party, however, and it could easily find itself in an even weaker position in 2019 if elections are delayed now.

A delay would also give President Jacob Zuma a reprieve, since widespread electoral losses would amplify calls for a leadership change from dissatisfied party elites. With municipal elections temporarily tabled, Zuma would have room to strengthen his hand ahead of the next party congress in 2017, when he is expected to relinquish his post at the head of the ANC.

Even if the electoral commission does not try to postpone the upcoming elections, all will not be lost for the ruling party. The ANC would still be in a decent position come August because its platform — unlike those of its competitors — has broad popular appeal, and the party has consistently shown that it can mobilize grassroots support. In the past, it has successfully executed aggressive campaigns to rake in votes when the chips are down, including massive efforts to register voters, deliver food and clothing, and promise job creation. If an opportunity to stall municipal elections emerges, however, the short-term advantages it could bring may be too tempting for South Africa's ruling party to pass up.