Notes of a presentation given by Dr Stuart Parkinson, SGR, at the Network for Peace AGM, London, 10 February 2007



The two can combine and cause a cyclical effect - conflict causing environmental impacts can damage the resource base and lead to further conflict

copper, zinc, diamonds (and others) - civil war in Democratic Republic of Congo (~1998-2003) - 7 other countries became involved in conflict (Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, Chad, Namibia, Zimbabwe) - estimated 3.8 million people died

Middle East - Gulf war (1991; Kuwait has 4 th largest oil reserves) and Iraq war (2003 until present; Iraq has 2 nd largest oil reserves) - although Western governments deny that oil was a factor, many commentators have argued this was important

Environmental factors can be resources for industrial society (generally scarce globally, and thus have a high monetary value):

Roots of conflict often include environmental factors (although these often combine with other factors such as race, religion, ideology, poverty, population growth)

References: SBS (2004); Nur (2006); Gleick (2006); Wikipedia (2007a)

Annual discovery of new oil reserves peaked in 1960s. The Association for Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) argues that the peak of annual production will occur within the next few years (or has possibly just occurred), with global demand outstripping production soon after. Prices are likely to quickly rise, and the current price shocks are argued to be an early indication of that. (The oil industry argues that the oil peak is still decades away but there is growing scepticism of their figures).

Remaining global oil reserves concentrated in small areas - eg Middle East states hold ~65% of reserves - and there is growing concern that they have exaggerated the size of their reserves.

Domestic consumption outstripping domestic production in major countries

Projected growth in consumption is huge USA: 2004 consumption - 7,600 million barrels; 2025 projected consumption - 9,500 (25% increase)

China: 2004 consumption - 2,300 m bbls; 2025 projected consumption - 4,800 (109% increase)

World: 2004 consumption - 30,100 m bbls; 2025 projected consumption - 40,500 (35% increase)

With the oil supply concentrated in a politically unstable region of the world and the possibility of demand exceeding supply in the near future – economic problems are likely, increasing the possibility of conflict.