Kennedy, 59 Seats and the Next Five Months

By Chris Cillizza and Paul Kane

One of the stark political realities of Ted Kennedy's death is that Senate Democrats' long coveted 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority is on hold for the foreseeable future as Massachusetts voters prepare for a special election to replace the legendary Democratic senator.

In truth, Kennedy's infirmity -- he hadn't voted since April -- and the long-term absence of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) due to illness, in addition to the renegade nature of some of the more moderate elements within the party, have long made the idea of a filibuster-proof majority more theory than reality.

But Kennedy's death cements Democrats' inability to push through legislation by sheer force of numbers alone unless, as Kennedy himself suggested, Massachusetts legislators change state law to allow Gov. Deval Patrick to appoint a temporary successor for the five-month period before a special election can be held.

One source familiar with negotiations in the state legislature suggests that some momentum appears to be building behind changing the law to allow Patrick to appoint a seat warmer.

If true, that would represent a major shift from last week when the idea of changing the state law at Kennedy's request seemed to be headed nowhere.

Watch to see if Democratic leaders in Washington -- led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) -- agitate for the law change, knowing that without it they will have to recruit at least one Republican in order to pass any bill.

It remains to be seen how much influence Reid or even the White House could have over the Massachusetts state legislature given that that chamber's popularity numbers have dipped in recent months and that state legislative bodies tend to be far more parochial -- taking a "how does this affect me" attitude -- in their approach toward governing decisions.

It's also not clear whether Patrick, badly damaged politically and facing a serious reelection race next fall, will put himself on the line to push for the law change. He voiced support for such a law change during an interview with WBUR radio on Wednesday morning, calling it "entirely reasonable" and saying he would sign a bill if one reached his desk. Still, voicing support and going out to rally support are two far different things.

Assuming state law, which mandates a special election be held between 145 and 160 days after the seat is officially declared vacant, remains untouched, the impact on Capitol Hill will be that any legislation that moves through the chamber will have to possess at least the patina of bipartisanship, perhaps following the model used in passage of the economic stimulus bill where three Republicans -- Arlen Specter (Pa.), Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Susan Collins (Maine) -- joined with a united Democratic party to bring the bill to the floor.

At the committee level, it's unclear who will succeed Kennedy as chairman at the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committee as his responsibilities have been divided among several senior members of the committee since the senator's brain cancer diagnosis in May 2008.

Next in line in committee seniority is Kennedy's closest friend in the Senate, Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), who shepherded the health-care legislation through the HELP committee in June and July.

Dodd, however, already chairs the banking committee, a gavel he would have to give up in order to take up the legislative legacy of Kennedy. Dodd's banking committee has placed him in the spotlight of the most intense legislative battles of the last year, including housing legislation in the summer of 2008, the $700 billion bailout of the financial industry and an ongoing effort to rewrite the regulatory makeup of federal agencies overseeing banks and financial services industry.

Dodd told reporters Wednesday that he would ponder his options over the coming days. "I haven't given that a second's worth of thought," he said of assuming Kennedy's chairmanship. "I really don't have an answer to that really."

If Dodd were to pass on taking the HELP chairmanship, it would likely fall to Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.). She has already been overseeing the education portfolio of that panel in Kennedy's stead, and she led the passage of major reforms to Pell grants last year.

If Dodd does take Kennedy's chairmanship, that sets up a key decision for Democrats about who succeeds him at the banking committee. Behind Dodd in seniority is Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.), who returned to the chamber after suffering a brain aneurysm in December 2006. Next in line after Johnson is Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).

Back in Massachusetts, the special election field remains unsettled as lawmakers and other aspiring politicians are loathe to comment on their own interest in the seat so soon after Kennedy's passing.

That said, Kennedy's long illness has allowed a number of would-be candidates to begin positioning themselves for the race. Couple that with the fact that sitting politicians would not need to give up their seats to run and the Democratic field is likely to be large.

At the top of that field is state Attorney General Martha Coakley who has previously conducted polling to test her viability as a Senate candidate. Coakley could have two advantages in a short special election: she might well be the lone woman in the field and she has run and won statewide before, giving her a broader political network and higher name identification that several of the other candidates.

Two sitting members of Congress -- Reps. Stephen Lynch and Michael Capuano -- are also expected to run. Lynch will rely heavily on his strong support among labor unions and his geographic base in blue-collar South Boston while Capuano will run as the Cambridge candidate, a strong base of intellectual and financial support in a Democratic primary.

Former Rep. Marty Meehan, who now serves as the chancellor at UMass-Lowell, also has to be considered a serious candidate as he was gearing up for a run in the event Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was elected president in 2004. Meehan is sitting on nearly $5 million in his House account, which could be transferred directly into a Senate account, and almost certainly would run as the outsider candidate -- using his strong voice for campaign finance reform in Congress as a springboard.

The possibility of either Rep. Barney Frank or Ed Markey running is tough to calculate as both men have coveted chairmanship slots in the House.

Frank, as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, is at the center of nearly every domestic policy debate in the country at the moment and may not be interested in taking a five month hiatus to run for higher office.

Markey, who seemed set to run for the Kerry opening in 2004, has since been named by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) as the chair of the Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming and, as a result, might well be less likely to join the fray.

The true x-factor in any special election calculation is whether anyone with the last name "Kennedy" decides to run. Ted Kennedy's widow, Vicki, seems entirely uninterested in following her husband into office although if she changed her mind it would likely be a coronation for her.

Joe Kennedy II, who left Congress in 1998 after a decade in the chamber, is more of a possibility although his controversial divorce and dealings with Venezuelan over oil likely ensure he would not have the field to himself.