Judging by the headlines, Prime Minister Stephen Harper should be cowering in his bed, sheets pulled to his chin, counting down the days until he has to find a new home. The news is rotten, there’s more Duffy to come, his cabinet is deserting him and his caucus is checking the want ads for jobs in a post-political world.

Yet Harper doesn’t look all that worried. Maybe he’s kidding himself, figuring Canadians will finally warm to him just in time for October’s election. After all it’s only been nine years. There’s still time. A little, anyway.

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Or maybe it’s something else.

The numbers, for instance. Even a few weeks before an election call it’s dangerous to put too much stock in polls. Rachel Notley said she didn’t seriously absorb the likelihood she could become premier of Alberta until a couple of weeks before it happened. Still, most soundings tend to agree the Tories are facing a profoundly disgruntled electorate. We’re told that 60-65% of the population is determined to vote for any party but the Conservatives. Thomas Mulcair is doing his best to look like a male version of Notley, and gaining ground. Justin Trudeau has finally released some policies, and they aren’t all bad.

Lousy as they appear on the surface, however, the polls aren’t definitive. An analysis for CBC suggests the Conservative vote, while below 30%, is so efficiently divided the impact could be much less painful than expected. Lost support in the West could be more than made up in Ontario, where the Tories have made gains and 15 new seats have been added. But more crucial is the sharp division of support between its opponents: the rise in support for the NDP has eaten deeply into potential Liberal votes. After more than two years as leader, Justin Trudeau runs well behind Mulcair as potential prime ministerial material, and even trails Harper.

This suggests Trudeau’s novelty value has peaked and is losing ground at the worst moment. The roll-out of Liberal platform plans appears to be having limited impact. If the anti-Harper vote, which is significant, coalesces behind Mulcair – as appears eminently possible – the Liberals could well be looking at a prolonged stay in third place.

But even that isn’t a given. The NDP wave owes a lot to the euphoria that greeted Notley’s election. Important questions remain about the party’s policy plans and how it would actually govern. On trade, for instance: Mulcair has resolutely avoided taking a firm position on two new free trade pacts that will have an enormous impact on Canada’s future, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement reached with the European Union, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership with the U.S., Japan and nine other Pacific Rim countries, which involves about 40% of world GDP and could be concluded this summer.

Or on the economy. The world is a frightening place right now. Europe is in turmoil over the crisis in Greece. The eurozone could be in a state of collapse by the time of the election. China – everyone’s choice as default alternative to the U.S. economy until recently – is bordering on panic. Nearly half the stocks on Chinese markets had ceased trading by Wednesday morning, in a collapse being compared to the crash that set off the Great Depression. While attention has been riveted on Greece, turmoil in China has the potential for a far greater impact on global prosperity.

Security is also uncertain. ISIL has spread its hideous terror campaign from Iraq and Syria to Egypt, and could soon find itself confronting Israel from inside Gaza. While Harper’s response may seem heavy-handed, both the NDP and Liberals have pledged to abandon involvement altogether, outside some training and humanitarian aide. President Barack Obama seems determined to conclude an agreement giving Iran access to nuclear weapons and a multi-billion-dollar boost to its economy, and flooding the world with yet more oil.

That being the case, is now the time Canadians would choose to roll the dice on a left-wing government – even if Mulcair appears less left-wing than his predecessors? Historically, Canadian voters have chosen to balance the parties, putting Conservatives in charge of provincial governments when the Liberals run Ottawa, and vice versa. Given the economic challenges, how safe will they feel with an inexperienced new NDP government in Alberta, a leftwing Liberal government in Ontario – where the credit rating was lowered again Tuesday, citing runaway debt and a lack of action on spending restraint – and an untried NDP government in Ottawa, learning the ropes of governing nationally for the first time? For a country noted for its traditional caution, that would be an usual display of risk-taking.

Voters have become so disaffected from politics it’s hard to know what they’ll do at any given moment. The TPP may be the single most important economic decision the country will make since NAFTA, yet 75% of Canadians say they’ve never heard of it. China could be flat on its back before Canadians took time enough away from the barbecue to pay attention. Decisions continue to be made on vague impressions in place of informed opinion. If wariness about Mulcair grows as NDP platform details emerge, will voters swallow their misgivings and move to the inexperienced Trudeau? Will they stay home in disgust? Or grudgingly put up with the relative safety of the government they know, if only for the sake of the mortgage, and a sense that Canada has a bigger role to play in the world other than interested observer?

At this point it’s still impossible to know. Perhaps that’s why the Prime Minister is showing no signs of panic. After almost a decade of power, he knows the contest hasn’t really started yet.

National Post

KellyMcParland<