The Associated Press says that, according to it’s tally of Democratic delegates, Barack Obama has secured the 2,118 delegates needed to win the nomination:\

WASHINGTON (AP) – Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House. Campaigning on an insistent call for change, Obama outlasted former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a historic race that sparked record turnout in primary after primary, yet exposed deep racial divisions within the party. The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

The RealClearPolitics tally is a little behind the AP, and shows Obama needing the support of 42 more delegates, while MSNBC says in it’s live newscrawl that he’s 30.5 delegates short as of this hour.

What seems clear is that the delegate bank is being cashed in, though, and they may be doing in this in a manner timed to ensure that they reach the magic number by the time Obama and Clinton speak tonight. So what will Clinton do ? It may all depend on what the meaning of concede is: This morning’s report that Clinton would “concede” that she’s lost the delegate race — and the campaign’s subsequent denial that she’s conceding the nomination — triggered wide confusion. But Clinton herself explained her position yesterday in Yankton, SD yesterday: “Tomorrow is the last day of the primaries and the beginning of a new phase in the campaign. After South Dakota and Montana vote I will lead in the popular vote and Senator Obama will lead in the delegate count,” she said. “The voters will have voted and so the decision will fall to the delegates empowered to vote at the Democratic Convention. I will be spending the coming days making my case to those delegates. Their responsibility not only to the Democratic Party but to our country is to vote for the candidate who is best able to lead us to victory in November and best prepared to lead our country into the future.” The theoretical case here is that — even if Obama currently holds the absolute majority of convention delegates — the delegates can’t cast their votes until August, and could change their minds. So in theory, Clinton can concede that Obama — presently — has the majority, but maintain that he doesn’t have the nomination. In practice, she’s pretty much out of options: He’s on the verge of locking up the majority, and a bandwagon effect — which has already begun to pull on her supporters — will only intensify. But as Clinton choreographs her defeat, she’s outlined a two-step: First conceding that Obama’s won the delegate race, then that he’s won the nomination.

As Brendan Loy points out, though, there’s a problem with this two-step strategy, for Obama at least:

If she doesn’t concede — and I mean fully concede — very quickly after it becomes clear that Obama has wrapped up a clear delegate majority, there is no logical point until the convention at which it will make sense for her to fully and finally concede. Moreover, as I said earlier, the feisty rhetoric she’ll inevitably use to justify her non-concession could create, perhaps unintentionally or half-intentionally, a sort of unstoppable rhetorical momentum that would make it nearly impossible for her to concede anytime before August 28 (the date of the roll call in Denver) without angering and alienating her supporters. This is why I think the campaign either: a) ends this week (probably in the next 48 hours) or b) continues until August.

I’m guessing that it’s going to be Option A personally. Clintonian (and Ickes) rhetoric and bluster aside, any chance that Clinton had of making a credible case for staying in this race until the convention ended at the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting. If nothing else that vote constituted a recognition by the DNC leadership that Obama’s nomination was inevitable and they weren’t going to do anything to stop it. Now we’ve got superdelegates coming to Obama’s side in what is clearly an effort to give him the 2,118 delegates he needs to claim the nomination sooner rather than later.

Even if Hillary doesn’t officially drop out tonight, it will be the end of the campaign for her nonetheless. The game we’re seeing today is, I think, nothing more than an unwillingness to give up until she absolutely has to.