According to a report released by the Eurasia Group Wednesday, the year ahead is likely to be challenging across the globe as a "geopolitical recession" sets in: a period of heightened instability characterized by a lack of leadership. According to the think tank's president, Ian Bremmer, "This year marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008." (For more, see: The Biggest Market Surprises of 2016.)

The Eurasia Group's report lays out 10 risks that could materialize in the next year:

1. U.S.

Following Donald Trump's victory in November, American foreign policy has taken a distinctly inward turn. According to an April Pew Research Center survey, 62% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats and 63% of independents wanted the incoming president to focus on domestic policy. It is tempting to use the label "isolationism" to describe this preference and Trump's America-first campaign rhetoric, but the Eurasia Group argues that's the wrong word. Trump is likely to be active abroad, just not as a leader building consensus and contributing to stability.

Rather, he is more likely to be interventionist ("bomb the hell out of ISIS"). The report also argues that he will reject America's role in promoting democracy and human rights, leading to the decline of multilateral institutions; rather he will focus on the benefits to be had from transactional relationships with other countries. The result, according to the Eurasia Group, is a world without a superpower, a "G-zero" world in which China expands its diplomatic influence in Asia and its economic influence globally; and Russia interferes in Western democracies' politics with impunity.

2. China

The report sees President Xi Jinping's push to consolidate power at home leading him to avoid looking weak abroad at all costs. The risk, then, is that he overreacts to provocation: perhaps in Hong Kong, where pro-democracy protestors are increasingly hostile to Chinese rule; or in the South China Sea, where overlapping territorial claims have the potential to spawn conflict; or in Taiwan, where President Tsai Ing-wen (aided by Trump) is poking holes in the brittle "One China" consensus; or in Japan, where a nationalist government is moving away from post-war pacifism; or in North Korea, where an erratic client regime is busily developing the capability to strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons. Economic risks also threaten to provoke a misguided reaction from Xi, who could jolt global markets.

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3. Germany

The EU is stumbling. It is fractious, characterized by infighting among its 28—soon to be 27—members over a number of issues, particularly migration from the Middle East and Africa. Most of its important members are seeing big political pushes to leave it and the single currency. It is in the economic doldrums: interest rates have dropped below zero. Without the leadership of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Eurasia Group's report argues, it's "hard to imagine" that the bloc would still be intact. She will probably win next year's election, the think tank reasons, but her mandate will have shriveled, leaving the EU vulnerable to a populist dismantling. (For more, see also: Bernanke Says British Are Brexit's Biggest Losers.)

4. Nowhere

Big, optimistic reform pushes will be a thing of the past in 2017, as no major country is likely to introduce much-needed structural changes. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to coast after introducing a major goods and services tax and other reforms. Mexico's Enrique Peña Nieto has run out of mandate after sweeping tax, education, energy and telecom reforms. Argentina, France, Germany and Russia will wait on elections. Italy will continue to struggle under weak government. Britain will be busy with Brexit.

Brazil's president, who replaced the recently impeached Dilma Rousseff, is himself caught up in a corruption scandal that has engulfed the country's entire political class. South Africa's ruling ANC is a tangle of corruption and infighting with no viable alternative. Saudi Arabia's "cultural obstacles" reduce the effectiveness of Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's reform agenda. Turkey's president is engaged in a power grab that leaves little room for distractions like reform. China might accomplish something once its leadership transition is complete, but for the most part, "money won't know where to flow."

5. The Middle East

The Middle East, swathes of which are already caught up in devastating wars, has the most to fear from technology in various forms. Hydraulic fracturing, which has enabled U.S. drillers to undercut OPEC and deprive petro-states of the oil wealth they need to buy citizens' acquiescence, is one. Cyber warfare is another; Saudi Arabia has much to fear from Iran in this regard, and every state is a potential target for terrorists. Automation threatens to swell already dangerous levels of youth unemployment. And Wikileaks and other outlets for "forced transparency" have the potential to completely discredit regimes that escaped the Arab Spring, such as the Saudi royal family.

6. Central Banks

Political meddling in monetary policy is nothing new, but the Eurasia Group sees politicians threatening to compromise the independence of three of the globe's most important technocratic institutions. Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May has pinned rising inequality on the Bank of England; Trump has accused the Fed of playing along with the Obama administration's agenda; and Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has put "50% of the blame" for Europe's populist wave—including Germany's Alternative für Deutschland—on the European Central Bank.

7. Silicon Valley

Trump's public clashes with companies over where they manufacture their wares have generated anxiety, but the sudden tweetstorms are problems for individual companies, not the economy as a whole. According to the Eurasia Group, Trump's clashes with business are likely to have more impact in Silicon Valley, where the tension is harder to resolve by moving a few hundred jobs. Techies' ideology of "freedom and privacy" clashes with Trump's concern for national security: expect more conflicts like the one between Apple Inc. (AAPL) and the FBI.

Trump's emphasis on blue collar jobs runs up against their push for automation (although so far he's preferred to blame job losses on Mexico and China, rather than technology). Figuring out how to prevent social media from becoming a morass of misinformation without resorting to censorship would be difficult enough for the likes of Facebook Inc.'s (FB) Mark Zuckerberg—that the misinformation is overwhelmingly supportive of the incoming president and hostile to his opponents hardly helps.

8. Turkey

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is no David Cameron, Matteo Renzi or Juan Manuel Santos: he is likely to win his referendum in the spring and with it a suite of new executive powers. The purge of allegedly Gülenist elements in every corner of Turkish society, which began after July's failed coup attempt, will likely continue. Not coincidentally, Erdoğan will continue to squeeze the media, courts, army, bureaucracy and central bank. At the same time as purges weaken the military, his nationalist posturing is likely increase threats from terrorism and the Kurdistan Worker's Party.

9. North Korea

Not only are North Korea's increasingly sophisticated nuclear weapons capabilities a grave threat to the U.S. and global stability generally, but China's desire to avoid a messy collapse on its border could lead it to butt heads with the U.S. over sanctions against the Kim regime. Meanwhile the implosion of South Korean President Park Geun-hye's administration threatens to put a left-wing government willing to negotiate with the North in power.

10. South Africa