An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

mbpd= Million of barrels per day

Gb= Billion of barrels (10 9 )

Tb= Trillion of barrels (10 12 )

NGPL= Natural Gas Plant Liquids

CO= Crude Oil + lease condensate

NGL= Natural Gas Liquids (lease condensate + NGPL)

URR= Ultimate Recoverable Resource

EIA Last Update (May)

Data sources for the production numbers:

Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).

EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to May 2008) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

The all liquid peak is now May 2008 at 86.05 mbpd, the year to date average production value in 2008 (5 months) is up from 2007 for all the categories. The peak date for Crude Oil + Cond. is also May 2008 at 74.48 mbpd (see Table I below).



Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Category AUG 2008 AUG 2007 AUG 2006 12 MA1 2008 (5 Months) 2007 (5 Months) 2006 (5 Months) Share Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids 86.05 84.11 84.18 85.03 85.49 84.07 84.30 100.00% 2008-05 86.05 Crude Oil + NGL 82.62 80.73 80.87 81.54 82.22 80.96 81.24 96.02% 2008-05 82.62 Other Liquids 3.42 3.37 3.30 3.49 3.27 3.12 3.06 3.98% 2007-06 3.81 NGPL 8.14 7.96 7.78 7.99 8.05 7.97 7.77 9.46% 2008-05 8.14 Crude Oil + Condensate 74.48 72.77 73.09 73.54 74.17 72.98 73.47 86.56% 2008-05 74.48 Canadian Tar Sands 1.10 1.09 1.02 1.19 1.16 1.15 1.06 1.28% 2007-08 1.35

Table I - Production estimate (in millions of barrels per day (mbpd)) up to May 2008 taken from the EIA website (International Petroleum Monthly). 1Average on the last 12 months. Canadian tar sands production numbers are from the NEB and includes updagraded and non-upgraded bitumen.



Business as Usual





Fig 4.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis



Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting



Fig 6.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies. Click to Enlarge.

Forecast Date 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 Diff2 Peak Date Peak Value All Liquids Observed (All Liquids) 84.54 84.44 85.49 NA NA 2008-05 86.05 IEA (WEO) 2004 83.74 85.41 87.08 90.40 98.69 -2.34 2030 121.30 IEA (WEO) 2005 85.85 87.64 89.35 92.50 99.11 -4.61 2030 115.40 Koppelaar 2005 85.78 86.61 87.60 89.21 87.98 -2.86 2011 89.58 Lahèrrere 2005 84.47 85.23 85.87 86.96 87.77 -1.12 2014 87.84 EIA (IEO) 2006 84.50 86.37 88.23 91.60 98.30 -3.48 2030 118.00 IEA (WEO) 2006 85.10 86.62 88.17 91.30 99.30 -3.42 2030 116.30 CERA1 2006 89.52 91.62 93.75 97.24 104.54 -9.01 2035 130.00 Lahèrrere 2006 84.82 85.96 87.02 88.93 92.27 -2.27 2018 92.99 Smith 2006 87.77 90.88 94.38 98.94 98.56 -9.63 2012-05 99.83 Crude Oil + NGL Observed (EIA) 81.28 81.01 82.22 NA NA 2008-05 82.62 GBM 2003 76.27 76.33 76.20 75.30 67.79 5.16 2007-05 76.34 Bakhtiari 2003 80.89 80.89 80.24 77.64 69.51 1.12 2006 80.89 ASPO-46 2004 80.95 80.80 80.59 80.00 73.77 0.78 2005 81.00 ASPO-58 2005 82.03 83.10 84.05 85.00 79.18 -2.69 2010 85.00 Staniford (High) 2005 77.92 78.31 78.63 79.01 78.51 2.74 2011-10 79.08 Staniford (Med) 2005 75.94 75.97 75.91 75.52 73.00 5.45 2007-05 75.98 Staniford (Low) 2005 70.13 69.71 69.20 67.92 63.40 12.17 2002-07 70.88 IEA (WEO) 2006 81.38 82.67 83.96 86.50 92.50 -2.60 2030 104.90 Koppelaar 2006 82.31 83.68 85.60 91.00 NA -4.23 2010 91.00 Skrebowski 2006 81.45 82.62 84.20 87.35 NA -2.84 2010 87.95 Smith 2006 82.81 85.45 88.27 91.95 88.60 -6.90 2011-02 92.31 Loglets 2006 82.14 83.02 83.74 84.65 83.26 -2.38 2012-01 84.80 ASPO-76 2006 79.00 81.35 85.06 90.00 85.00 -3.70 2010 90.00 Robelius Low 2006 82.19 82.50 82.35 81.84 72.26 -0.98 2007 82.50 Robelius High 2006 84.19 86.67 89.27 93.40 92.40 -7.90 2012 94.54 Shock Model 2006 80.43 80.01 79.51 78.27 73.74 1.86 2003 81.17 EWG 2007 81.00 80.45 79.78 78.06 69.21 1.58 2005 81.41 Crude Oil + Lease Condensate Observed (EIA) 73.48 73.05 74.17 NA NA 2008-05 74.48 ASPO-46 2004 72.56 72.25 71.89 71.00 63.55 1.49 2005 72.80 Deffeyes 2004 69.92 69.83 69.64 69.01 65.98 3.73 2005-12 69.94 ASPO-58 2005 73.80 74.65 75.39 76.00 69.50 -2.02 2010 76.00 IEA (WEO) 2006 71.78 72.77 73.76 75.70 80.30 -0.38 2030 89.10 CERA1 2006 76.89 78.60 80.35 82.29 83.83 -6.97 2038 97.58 ASPO-76 2006 72.10 73.66 75.74 78.00 72.00 -2.36 2010 78.00 HSM 2007 73.56 73.53 73.40 72.82 69.53 -0.02 2006 73.56 Ace 2007 73.48 73.03 72.18 66.96 58.47 1.20 2006-01 73.55 Table II. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.1Productive capacities. 2Difference between the observed average year to date production for 2008 and the predicted value (in mbpd), the value in bold indicates the best forecast (i.e. the oldest with the lowest error).

The following results are based on a linear or non-linear fit of a parametric curve (most often a Logistic curve) directly on the observed production profile:





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