Judging from today’s round of tracking polls, its looking like those Friday numbers from Zogby may not be reliable after all.

First, the Rasmussen poll has Obama up by five, gaining a point from yesterday:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 46%. The race continues to remain remarkably stable at the national level–this is the 37th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%

More important for McCain, though, is that the field he’s playing on has gotten much, much smaller:

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday. Not surprisingly, the number of persuadable voters has declined sharply as Election Day draws near. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and won’t change their mind. Forty-three percent (43%) say the same about McCain. Six percent (6%) have a preference for one of the major party candidates but could change their mind, 2% plan to vote for a third party option and 2% remain undecided.

Basically, it’s that six percent that McCain is fighting for, and it’s a tough fight to say the least.

The Gallup Daily tracking poll, meanwhile, also shows Obama gaining on McCain and having double-digit leads under all three of Gallup’s scenarios:

PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters. This is the first time since Gallup began estimating likely voters in early October that there is no difference between Gallup’s two likely voter models. Obama’s lead of 52% to 42% using Gallup’s traditional estimate of likely voting criteria takes into account past voting as well as current intentions. Obama’s identical lead using the expanded model takes into account only current voting intentions.

Gallup’s poll also indicates that Obama will enter Tuesday’s official voting with a “locked in” lead thanks to early voting:

Gallup’s interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday shows that 27% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted. The trend in early voting has trended consistently upward on a day to day basis, moving from 7% of registered voters, who had already voted during the period of Oct. 17-19, to the current estimate of 27%. Another 8% of registered voters still indicate that they plan on voting before Election Day itself. The vote choices of these early voters — all of whom are included in the likely voter pool since they are definite voters — skew more toward Barack Obama than the sample average. Thus, more and more of these Obama-oriented voters’ choices are being “locked in” to the likely voter pool through early voting, benefiting Obama.

The remaining tracking polls are generally consistent with Rasmussen and Gallup — Hotline has Obama up by 7, the Washington Post has Obama up by 9, and GWU/Battleground and Investor’s Business Daily have Obama up by four. More importantly, none of these polls shows any indication of the move toward McCain supposedly reflected in Zogby’s Friday number.

Three days out, this looks like a win for Obama.