The idea that Kimi Raikkonen agreed to leave Ferrari without knowing his next destination in F1 seems to be a little hard to believe. The Finn will, of course, be paid handsomely by Ferrari for having agreed to give up the final year of his contract at Maranello, but he will also have wanted another deal in place before cutting loose. Thus it is safe to assume that Kimi’s ducks were all in a row before the Ferrari announcement came. Raikkonen is a super talent but his motivation has often been questioned since he won the title in 2007. This is the root cause of his departure from Ferrari no matter how it is dressed up.

The word has long been that Kimi is going to go back to McLaren where things are very different these days and he will not have to deal with Ron Dennis, the two having had a rather prickly relationship when he was previously with the Woking team. Others who were being mentioned as possible McLaren drivers: Nico Rosberg and current incumbent Heikki Kovalainen have clearly given up on the idea, with Rosberg expected to be confirmed at Brawn GP when the season is over and Kovalainen hoping for a chance with either Renault or Toyota. Suggestions that Raikkonen will go to Toyota or to Red Bull Racing seem to be nothing more than page-filling on the Internet, or wishful thinking on the part of the teams in question. There is no reason to think that he would be interested in Toyota as the team has yet to prove it is a winner, despite having spent inordinate amounts of money. Red Bull Racing has two drivers under contract for 2010. The team is hoping to have Mercedes-Benz engines next year, but there is a lot now getting in the way of that deal, not least McLaren which is blocking the arrangement, as it has the right to do in its contracts with Mercedes-Benz. The McLaren-Mercedes relationship is obviously strained and heading for a divorce, probably at the end of next year or in 2011 and so there is really no reason why McLaren would agree to letting Red Bull have the engines, particularly if Red Bull was trying to sneak off with Raikkonen as well. McLaren helped out Brawn GP last winter and is now paying the price for that largesse as Stuttgart has fallen head over heels in love with Brawn, has proposed marriage and has been accepted. Brawn GP will soon be painted silver. It does not help that the FIA is now arguing that no engine manufacturer be allowed to supply more than three teams (Cosworth excepted) because engine supply divided up between Ferrari, Renault and Mercedes might be considered a cartel under European law. This is a very poor argument, but it is clear that the FIA is worried about three manufacturers having total control of F1 engine supply and thus being in a position to create a DTM-style championship. This explains the federation’s love affair with Cosworth.

The idea that Red Bull Racing will pay off Mark Webber in order to get Raikkonen sounds unlikely. Contracts exist with Webber (or at least that is what has been announced) and if he does not want to leave the team, he does not have to. Red Bull can throw money at him, but with many of the drivers these days, money is not the issue. They have enough for the rest of their lives and their chief goal is to be in the right car as this will bring results and ultimately money as well. Thus buying a driver out of his contract is not really a solution, unless the driver is more interested in money than in performance, in which case his career is probably on a downward path. This may be true with Raikkonen, but Webber’s career is still moving in an upward path.

His recent races have been rather poor but he is fourth in the World Championship and is quite capable of bouncing back as Sebastian Vettel did after his midseason slump. The team would obviously prefer him to try to help Vettel in the last two races but the German’s title hopes are remote at best. There are a maximum of 20 points available from the last two races and Vettel need 17 to win the title, with Button failing to score. Given that Jenson has scored in every race he has finished this year (15 out of the 16 Grands Prix) and retired only once, there is little statistical chance for Vettel. He could win both the final races easily enough but Button needs only four points to see off that challenge.