Here's how these states compared, in terms of Hispanic population, after the 2000 Census:



Seats Gained Population Rank Among States State in 2010 % Hispanic (% Hispanic Pop.) Texas +4 32.0% 3rd Arizona +1 25.3% 4th Nevada +1 19.7% 5th Florida +1 16.8% 6th

Or, put more colorfully, here's a map from the Census Bureau showing percent-Hispanic population by county in 2000 (click to enlarge):



The lesson is: Not so fast. Lost Electoral College votes in New York and Pennsylvania will hurt Democrats in presidential elections for the next decade, but the big Census winner--Texas--is likely to be gaining Democratic Hispanic voters, not Republicans, and the same is true in John McCain's bright-red home state of Arizona, Harry Reid's purple Nevada, and the quixotic Florida, where national elections are a push.

As Republicans gerrymander in these states, they may find themselves straining to avoid the creation of new Democratic districts. (This won't be an issue in Florida, which passed a fair-districting ballot initiative in November.) Several Latino advocacy groups, meanwhile, will keep an eye on the process.

"Districts are going to have to be drawn in a way that does not dilute the voices of those communities that in fact are fueling the additions," said Clarissa Martinez, director of immigration and national campaigns for the National Council of La Raza. Martinez expects a few Latino legal advocacy groups to lobby governors and state legislatures not to gerrymander the Latino vote into oblivion.

Martinez also suspects that Georgia, a southern state not typically associated with Hispanics, may owe its gained congressional seat to a growing Hispanic population as well.

It's safe to assume that Hispanics account for much of this population growth in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, because Hispanics are the nation's fastest-growing race/origin subgroup.

Between 1990 and 2000, the Hispanic population grew by over 57 percent, from 22.4 million to 35.3 million, according to the Census Bureau. In 2010, the population is expected to grow by another 41 percent, to 49.7 million, making up just over 16 percent of the country as a whole (based on Census projections from 2008).

In some ways, this shift has yet to manifest itself politically. Arizona and Texas are still bright red. But in others, it's evident: President Obama won Nevada and New Mexico in 2008 thanks, in part, to Hispanic votes. And in the 2010 midterms, Democrats banked Hispanic votes in Nevada and California on their paths to victory in two Senate elections and one gubernatorial race.

On the whole, Hispanics vote heavily Democratic--an October Pew study found 47 percent see Democrats as more concerned about their views, while just six percent prefer the GOP--but there's some debate as to why. Hispanic voters, advocates will tell you, care about education, jobs, and health care. Pundits often assume that Hispanic votes come down to immigration policy, but immigration politicking probably has more to do with it.