Sen., Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) is the darling of the tea party and right-wing talk radio. He is a smart man and fiery orator. And he is at 5 percent in national polls. It’s just as bad in Iowa, where he should be a crowd favorite. There he is in 7th place according to the RealClearPolitics average, barely ahead of Rick Santorum. While not an early primary state, a Virginia poll released yesterday put Cruz at 3 percent. At the first cattle call of the primary season he was upstaged by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. After a couple of years of nonstop attention-getting, he hardly is unknown to primary voters. Voters just don’t seem to like him. (His average unfavorable rating is about 40 percent, his favorable about 30 percent.)

. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, delivers a speech to 2014 Red State Gathering attendees in Fort Worth, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

At this stage it’s easy to see he has high unfavorables and low support, but the reasons are less clear. There are a few possibilities.

There is a natural tension between his unreasonable expectations (“Close the IRS!” “Force Democrats to repeal the president’s executive order!”) that delight talk radio hosts and his presidential aspirations. Both in objectives and in tone he plays the role of rabble-rouser to the hilt. But there is a difference between being presidential and being a gadfly. Like a moth to a flame, he cannot resist the urge to attack fellow Republicans. It’s wasted, destructive energy that is not helping the party or the country. And it sure isn’t helping him, at least so far.

In addition, there is a high experience bar for the presidency — especially after the last freshman senator turned out to be not ready for prime time. And that unfortunately for Cruz works to his detriment. There is no top 2016 contender with less experience in public office than he — or who spends more time railing against the establishment, gumming up the works in the Senate and decrying compromise. He seems like an angry young man, not presidential material.

Then there is electability. Certainly a cross section of voters associate him with the shutdown in 2013, a low point in Republican fortunes. He is if nothing else a lightning rod, a divisive figure loved strongly by a segment of the GOP and pretty much hated by everyone else. And for all the talk about conservatism, GOP voters continue to say that electability remains much more important than ideology. Given how unpopular Cruz is with those outside the right-wing base it’s easy to see why most Republicans — even if they like his fiery rhetoric — don’t think he could win the presidency.

Cruz also seems to be narrow-casting his appeal to an itty-bitty segment of the electorate. He seems to want the voters who like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), but think he is too nutty on foreign policy. However, hawks can’t embrace him because he sounds too Obama-like in decrying the NSA surveillance program and resisting calls for a robust plan to destroy the Islamic State. Who is the mystical voter to whom he appeals with a mish-mash of those positions? There are not enough pro-shutdown, anti-NSA, pro-Iran sanctions and anti-immigration voters to go around.

And finally, in the lanes of “tea party” and “social conservative” candidates there is a lot of competition, especially from Walker who appears infinitely more electable, even-tempered and experienced. Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry all take some voters from the pool from which Cruz must draw support.

This is not to say Cruz can’t recast himself. But it is extremely hard to imagine that if Cruz remains Cruz he will get very far as a presidential contender. At times one wonders if he actually believes that the loudest talk show hosts are representative of the electorate or that getting a gold star for votes from Heritage Action provides some sort of credential for the presidency. Being inside the right-wing bubble can befuddle even the most modest and self-aware pols. For someone like Cruz — whose arrogance and combativeness are unmatched even in the U.S. Senate — it perhaps has been hypnotizing.

Maybe the best thing for Cruz would be to run. There is nothing like the verdict of voters in those early states to sober up a politician. Losing is one thing; losing in embarrassing fashion is quite another. Perhaps — like Rick Perry — he needs that sort of humbling experience to redirect his focus and his approach to politics. If so, that would be to his and Republicans’ benefit.