Through the first two months of the college basketball season, no team has accomplished more than Duke. Thus, the Blue Devils hold the top spot on the s-curve and the No. 1 overall seed in our first bracket projection of 2013. For what it’s worth, Duke is No. 1 in the RPI, has played the nation’s third best schedule, is 10-0 vs. the RPI Top 50, and has wins over Louisville, Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Temple, and Ohio State. That’s about as good as it gets. The other No. 1 seeds are Louisville, Michigan, and Kansas.

As expected, the lower half of the current bracket is quite fluid. Even some national headliners have suspect resumes to this point: Kentucky, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina come to mind. Of those three, Kentucky seems most likely to push for a significantly higher seed come tournament time. We also have teams whose non-conference schedules could prove costly in March: Virginia (No. 329), Maryland (No. 323), Georgia Tech (No. 302), Charlotte (No. 300), Wyoming (No. 281), Iowa (No. 276), Pittsburgh (No. 255), and St. Mary’s (246) are just a few. How these teams – and others – handle conference play will define their seasons because their non-conference numbers won’t help much. (SOS numbers are from ESPN’s RPI rankings).

Quick note: The current bracket is for games played through Sunday, January 6. It does not include games played Monday (Jan. 7). Notre Dame’s win at Cincinnati will be included in the next bracket and s-curve update.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

Arizona State vs. Wisconsin | South Region

vs. South Region Virginia vs. Oklahoma | West Region

vs. West Region NORFOLK STATE vs. SOUTHERN | Midwest Region

vs. Midwest Region CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN vs. WAGNER | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EAST – Washington, DC MIDWEST – Indianapolis Philadelphia Lexington 1) DUKE 1) LOUISVILLE 16) CHARLESTON STHN / WAGNER 16) NORFOLK ST / SOUTHERN 8) Wyoming 8) Temple 9) MEMPHIS 9) UCLA Dayton Auburn Hills 5) Ohio State 5) NC State 12) BUCKNELL 12) MURRAY STATE 4) Cincinnati 4) Illinois 13) DETROIT 13) MID TENNESSEE ST Austin Austin 6) Georgetown 6) New Mexico 11) Colorado State 11) Indiana State 3) CREIGHTON 3) MISSOURI 14) CANISIUS 14) UTAH STATE Dayton Kansas City 7) Oklahoma State 7) VCU 10) Oregon 10) Marquette 2) Indiana 2) Minnesota 15) NORTHEASTERN 15) MERCER WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Dallas Kansas City Auburn Hills 1) KANSAS 1) MICHIGAN 16) WEBER STATE 16) STONY BROOK 8) Kentucky 8) Baylor 9) Miami-FL 9) Maryland San Jose San Jose 5) Notre Dame 5) BUTLER 12) Saint Louis 12) Arizona State / Wisconsin 4) Michigan State 4) SAN DIEGO STATE 13) NORTH DAKOTA ST 13) DAVIDSON Salt Lake City Lexington 6) UNLV 6) Kansas State 11) Virginia / Oklahoma 11) North Carolina 3) GONZAGA 3) Florida 14) S.F. AUSTIN 14) OHIO Salt Lake City Philadelphia 7) Wichita State 7) Colorado 10) Pittsburgh 10) Boise State 2) ARIZONA 2) Syracuse 15) HAWAII 15) HARVARD

NOTES on the BRACKET: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Louisville, Michigan, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Saint Louis, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Oklahoma

First Five teams out (at large): Iowa, Iowa State, Dayton, California, Tennessee

Next Five teams out (at large): Belmont, Texas, BYU, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (7): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin

ACC (6): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Maryland, Miami-FL, Virginia

Mountain West (6): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Boise State, Colorado State

Atlantic 10 (4): Butler, VCU, Temple, Saint Louis

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State

SEC (3): Missouri, Florida, Kentucky

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … MURRAY STATE (Ohio Valley), BUCKNELL (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), NORTH DAKOTA ST (Summit), DETROIT (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), UTAH STATE (WAC), CANISIUS (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), OHIO (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), HAWAII (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), STONY BROOK (American East), WEBER STATE (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN (Big South), WAGNER (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)