Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2003 16 16 66 976 4 (1st) #3 David Carr 2004 16 16 79 1142 6 David Carr 2005 13 13 63 688 2 David Carr

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2005 16 8 29 446 3 (1st) #27 Michael Vick 2006 16 5 30 506 0 Michael Vick 2007 16 15 83 1202 6 Joey Harrington



Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2006 14 11 45 632 3 (2nd) #52 Brett Favre 2007 13 13 53 920 12 Brett Favre 2008 16 15 80 1292 9 Aaron Rodgers

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2007 15 10 48 756 4 (1st) #2 Jon Kitna 2008 16 16 78 1331 12 Dan Orlovsky 2009 14 14 67 984 5 Matthew Stafford

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2004 16 16 58 780 8 (1st) #3 Josh McCown 2005 16 16 103 1409 10 Kurt Warner 2006 13 13 69 946 6 Matt Leinart

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2009 14 6 47 790 6 (1st) #29 Eli Manning 2010 13 12 79 1052 11 Eli Manning

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2009 16 4 39 756 6 (3rd) #84 Ben Roethlisberger 2010 16 16 60 1257 10 Ben Roethlisberger

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2005 8 0 3 59 0 (2nd) #61 Drew Brees 2006 16 7 27 453 6 Philip Rivers 2007 16 16 41 623 3 Philip Rivers 2008 16 16 59 1098 7 Philip Rivers

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2008 16 15 62 912 2 (2nd) #61 Donovan McNabb 2009 15 15 62 1156 9 Donovan McNabb 2010 14 14 47 1056 6 Michael Vick

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2001 13 9 27 345 0 (1st) 30th Peyton Manning 2002 16 7 49 716 4 Peyton Manning 2003 16 16 68 838 7 Peyton Manning 2004 16 16 77 1210 12 Peyton Manning

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2006 9 0 - - - Undrafted Tony Romo 2007 16 0 5 76 0 Tony Romo 2008 12 0 13 278 3 Tony Romo 2009 16 9 81 1320 11 Tony Romo

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2007 16 15 70 995 5 (1st) #23 Damon Huard 2008 16 16 86 1022 7 Tyler Thigpen 2009 11 9 47 589 4 Matt Cassel 2010 16 16 72 1162 15 Matt Cassel

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2006 14 12 70 1038 8 (7th) #252 Drew Brees 2007 16 14 98 1202 11 Drew Brees 2008 11 6 47 760 5 Drew Brees

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2009 15 13 56 773 4 (1st) #19 Donovan McNabb 2010 16 16 70 964 10 Michael Vick

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2006 16 4 49 824 2 (1st) #25 Ben Roethlisberger 2007 13 13 52 942 8 Ben Roethlisberger 2008 15 15 55 821 5 Ben Roethlisberger 2009 16 16 79 1248 5 Ben Roethlisberger

1st Year 1 2nd Year 9 3rd Year 1 4th Year 4

1st round draft choice 9 2nd round draft choice 3 third round draft choice 1 7th round or Undrafted 2

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2010 12 2 45 561 6 (1st) #24 Tony Romo 2011 ? ? ? ? ?

Tony Romo

Year G GS Rec Yards TDs Draft Quarterback 2010 16 16 65 964 11 (4th) #101 Josh Freeman 2011 ? ? ? ? ?

Josh Freeman

The third-year wide receiver breakout is without question an absurd, stupid theory that has floated about the fantasy football realm for far too long, infecting the minds of weak fantasy football owners, many of whom treat it as fantasy fact. Does it take time for wide receivers to adjust to the NFL and learn their offensive systems? Yes it does. But I do not know why the third year is the perceived breakout year. There is little evidence to support the claim it takes two years for receivers to become familiar with their NFL systems. Proponents of the third-year receiver myth defend it along the lines of, "Well guys like Roddy White, Steve Largent, and Rod Smith all broke out in their third years which is common for wide receivers because it usually takes two seasons for wide outs to master their offensive systems."Three things are wrong with this logic. Number one is that only a handful of players were selected to support the claim, while the rest of the NFL receiver universe is disregarded.Number two is an assumption is being made about the amount of time it takes wide receivers to acclimate themselves within their new NFL systems.Number three is the NFL is a different game in 2011 then it was when Steve Largent and Rod Smith played. The new rules prohibit cornerbacks from pushing, pulling and beating up receivers on their routes, so success comes easier for receivers in 2011.Even more befuddling is that there are those in the fantasy-football sphere who are projecting breakouts from third-year players like Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, and Jeremy Maclin.Really? Another breakout? In 2010, Wallace finished as the 5best fantasy wide receiver, Nicks finished 8th, and Maclin ended up 16. Considering these players were some of the best receivers in fantasy football in 2010, another "breakout" is highly unlikely, no matter how many yards Wallace think he can get this year.These three receivers all broke out in their second seasons and it got me thinking whether the third-year receiver bump even exists.After a little bit of research, the answer is… not really.Turns out, the wide receiver breakout rule really does exist, it just applies to second-year wide receivers. More specifically, second-year wide receivers that were first and second round draft picks, have talented quarterbacks throwing to them, were given the opportunity to start in their second seasons and produced impressive numbers in their rookie years.Given this criteria, Dez Bryant and Mike Williams could be in for second-year wide receiver breakouts. More on this later.Below are the top-15 wide receivers in terms of average draft position (excluding Dez Bryant and Mike Williams). Take a look and see what season these receivers "broke out."italics=rookie year...It could be argued that Johnson broke out in his 2007 and 2008 seasons after Matt Schaub arrived. But considering Johnson made his first pro bowl in the 2004 season, it has to be considered his "breakout" year. (Note that "breakout" is in quotes because it is a subjective term. Keep that in mind the rest of the article.)White broke out in his third year despite Joey Harrington throwing him the ball.Some might argue that the significant rise in receptions indicates a third year bump for Jennings. However, Jennings also played in three more games in 2008 than in 2007 and if you averaged out his 2007 numbers for 16 games, Jennings would have finished with 61 receptions and 1061 yards, which is why Jennings breakout season was 2007.Calvin Johnson definitely broke out his second year. The second overall pick in 2007 broke out in 2008 with Dan Orlovsky throwing passes to him. Quite an impressive feat considering Orlovsky is awful.Fitzgerald broke out his second year with Kurt Warner taking over at quarterback.Nicks broke out his second year, and had one of the best per-game averages in 2010, not only for yards but for touchdowns as well.Broke out second year. With Santonio Holmes gone, Wallace took his place. Another note: I mentioned earlier that one of the indicators for second-year wide receiver success was opportunity. Mike Wallace was given the opportunity to start in 2010 with Holmes gone. Should Holmes had stayed, it would have been more difficult for Wallace to breakout.Vincent Jackson doesn't fall in either the second year bump or third year bump players. Perfect evidence why the second-year wide receiver breakout theory is a theory rather than law.The extremely fast and talented Jackson broke out in his second year. Him and Michael Vick should continue to be a deadly combination in 2011.It took Reggie Wayne a little longer to breakout, but he eventually did and has been an absolute monster for the Colts ever since 2004.See Mike Wallace. Austin was given his opportunity to shine due to a Roy Williams injury and he made the most of it, catching ten balls for 250 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City in week five of the 2009 season. Eventually, he took Patrick Crayton's starting position later on in the season and the rest is history.Dwayne Bowe finally got over his character issues and broke out in his fourth season. Could Bowe's 2010 touchdown totals been a product of Coach Haley finally figuring out how to use him, or were they just the result of an incredibly easy passing schedule?Marques Colston is a freak of nature. He is one of the only 7th-round picks to ever go for more than 1000 receiving yards his rookie year.Maclin had a very successful 2010 season, and it could be said that he broke out in his second year. Could be in for a bigger third year, but has other receivers taking away looks from him.Although Santonio Holmes recorded 427 yards more in 2009 than he did in 2008, his second year is the year he really broke out. Holmes only played 13 games in 2007 but if those games are averaged out for a full year, he would have finished with 1159 yards and 10 touchdowns.Out of the top 15 players being drafted right now, nine of them broke out in their second years. Roddy White was the only player to break out in his third year. Interestingly enough, more players broke out in their fourth years than in their third years.Another interesting takeaway from the draft pick data is that most of the players that broke out were first round picks. This suggests that the more talented a receiver is, the more likely he is to make an impact.Now let's take a look at the most likely candidates for the second year breakout. Both Dez Bryant and Mike Williams were high draft picks, produced decent numbers as rookies and have talented quarterbacks throwing to them.n Bryant's case, with Roy Williams gone, he will be in line to start and so his numbers can be expected to rise dramatically with the increased targets.Mike Williams could definitely improve on his year. A first round talent, Mike WIlliams dropped in the draft due to character concerns. However, he played his tail off in 2010, and finished with one of the most impressive seasons by a rookie receiver ever. If Freeman continues to build on his surprisingly good 2010, Mike Williams could be in store for a monster 2011.

The views and content in this article are not necessarily the opinion of Fantasy Football Champs, www.FFChamps.com, and its in-house experts.