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The cost of liberating Libya

A new study conducted by respected defence expert Francis Tusa has estimated that the UK’s involvement in the Libya Campaign could cost up to £1.75 billion. Tusa’s research follows the recent acceleration in operations in North Africa, overshadowing earlier calculations made by the British government. Chancellor George Osborne put the cost of the campaign – now in its seventh month – at “tens of millions” but June saw the government produce a revised estimate of £260 million.

Tusa, the editor of Defence Analysis, derived two sets of detailed calculations from data provided by the military and figures quoted in parliament. The first of his models estimates the expense of Operation Ellamy at between £1.38 and £1.58 billion, while the second produced an even higher expenditure of £850 million to £1.75 billion.

The Guardian, which has published Tusa’s comprehensive research, has quoted him as saying that, where there was doubt, he “underestimated rather than overestimated in [his] calculations”. Although Tusa maintains that his calculations are not definitive, the vast chasm between his numbers and those provided by the government raises serious concerns.

In response, there have been demands for increased governmental transparency. Jim Murphy, shadow defence secretary, criticized the apparent playing down by ministers of the campaign’s costs while Rear Admiral Chris Parry, a former development director at the MoD, expressed worries on the effect on the MoD’s budget – which has already been slashed in the current hard economic climate.



