Chance of winning Hillary Clinton 51.9 % Donald Trump 48.0 %

AL AK AZ AR CA CO FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC Key 50% 60 70 80 90 Clinton Trump Tipping points

Electoral votes Electoral votes Hillary Clinton Clinton 272.7 Donald Trump Trump 264.9 Gary Johnson Johnson 0.3 Popular vote Hillary Clinton Clinton 45.4% Donald Trump Trump 44.3% Gary Johnson Johnson 8.9%

# How the odds have changed We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8. June 8 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 0 25 50 75 100% Election Day Nov. 8 ▼

# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome. Key Average 80% chance outcome falls in this range Expected margin of victory ▼ ▲ Chance of tipping election ▼ ▲ +75 +50 +25 +25 +50 +75 Florida R+1.4 19.7% Michigan D+2.3 10.2% North Carolina R+1.8 9.8% Ohio R+2.6 9.1% Pennsylvania D+2.7 8.5% Colorado D+0.9 8.3% Wisconsin D+2.4 6.1% Virginia D+3.8 5.3% Nevada R+1.7 3.4% New Hampshire D+1.8 2.7% Georgia R+5.8 2.5% Minnesota D+4.4 2.3% New Mexico D+4.6 1.9% New Jersey D+6.8 1.6% Arizona R+5.5 1.6% Rhode Island D+6.0 1.5% Iowa R+4.6 1.2% Maine - statewide D+3.5 0.7% Delaware D+8.0 0.4% Oregon D+8.9 0.3% Illinois D+11.6 0.3% Texas R+10.9 0.3% South Carolina R+10.9 0.3% Washington D+11.1 0.2% Connecticut D+10.8 0.2% Missouri R+9.8 0.2% Alaska R+12.6 0.2% Nebraska 2nd District R+7.1 0.2% Montana R+12.1 0.2% Nebraska 1st District R+14.8 0.2% Maine 2nd District R+8.1 0.1% North Dakota R+17.8 0.1% Kansas R+11.5 <0.1% Indiana R+12.7 <0.1% Maine 1st District D+13.9 <0.1% South Dakota R+16.0 <0.1% New York D+16.0 <0.1% Utah R+17.4 <0.1% Massachusetts D+17.5 <0.1% Louisiana R+17.6 <0.1% Mississippi R+17.7 <0.1% Nebraska - statewide R+18.6 <0.1% Kentucky R+18.7 <0.1% Arkansas R+18.7 <0.1% California D+19.5 <0.1% West Virginia R+20.3 <0.1% Vermont D+20.7 <0.1% Maryland D+21.3 <0.1% Oklahoma R+21.6 <0.1% Tennessee R+22.3 <0.1% Hawaii D+23.6 <0.1% Idaho R+23.8 <0.1% Alabama R+25.0 <0.1% Nebraska 3rd District R+33.9 <0.1% D.C. D+34.2 <0.1% Wyoming R+34.2 <0.1% Show all states ▾

# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it. ME NY VT NH MI MA WI CT RI WA MT MN PA ID ND OH NJ WY SD IL OR IN CA NE IA WV MD DE NV UT CO KS DC MO KY VA OK AZ NM AR TN NC TX MS AL GA LA SC AK HI FL Key 50% 60 70 80 90 Clinton's chances Trump's chances One electoral vote

# The winding path to 270 electoral votes A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award. The candidate who gets more than 269 electoral votes — enough to cross this line — wins ← Bigger Clinton margins Bigger Trump margins → DC HI Maryland VT California MA New York ME 1st Illinois Washington CT Oregon DE New Jersey RI NM Minnesota Virginia ME Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan NH Colorado Florida Nevada North Carolina Ohio Iowa Arizona Georgia NE 2nd ME 2nd Missouri Texas SC Kansas MT AK Indiana NE 1st SD Utah LA MS ND NE Kentucky AR WV OK Tennessee ID Alabama NE 3rd WY Key One electoral vote

# How much each state matters Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner. Tipping-point chance Florida 19.7% Michigan 10.2 % North Carolina 9.8 % Ohio 9.1 % Pennsylvania 8.5 % Colorado 8.3 % Wisconsin 6.1 % Virginia 5.3 % Nevada 3.4 % New Hampshire 2.7 % Georgia 2.5 % Minnesota 2.3 % New Mexico 1.9 % New Jersey 1.6 % Arizona 1.6 % Rhode Island 1.5 % Iowa 1.2 % Maine - statewide 0.7 % Delaware 0.4 % Oregon 0.3 % Illinois 0.3 % Texas 0.3 % South Carolina 0.3 % Washington 0.2 % Connecticut 0.2 % Missouri 0.2 % Alaska 0.2 % Nebraska 2nd District 0.2 % Montana 0.2 % Nebraska 1st District 0.2 % Maine 2nd District 0.1 % North Dakota 0.1 % Kansas <0.1 % Indiana <0.1 % Maine 1st District <0.1 % South Dakota <0.1 % New York <0.1 % Utah <0.1 % Massachusetts <0.1 % Louisiana <0.1 % Mississippi <0.1 % Nebraska - statewide <0.1 % Kentucky <0.1 % Arkansas <0.1 % California <0.1 % West Virginia <0.1 % Vermont <0.1 % Maryland <0.1 % Oklahoma <0.1 % Tennessee <0.1 % Hawaii <0.1 % Idaho <0.1 % Alabama <0.1 % Nebraska 3rd District <0.1 % District of Columbia <0.1 % Wyoming <0.1 % Voter power index New Hampshire 4.9 Rhode Island 4.4 Nevada 4.1 Colorado 4.0 New Mexico 3.2 Michigan 2.9 Florida 2.8 North Carolina 2.8 Wisconsin 2.6 Ohio 2.2 Pennsylvania 2.0 Virginia 1.8 Delaware 1.3 Maine - statewide 1.2 Minnesota 1.0 Iowa 1.0 Alaska 0.9 Nebraska 2nd District 0.9 Arizona 0.8 Georgia 0.8 Nebraska 1st District 0.8 New Jersey 0.6 Maine 2nd District 0.5 Montana 0.5 North Dakota 0.4 Oregon 0.2 South Dakota 0.2 Maine 1st District 0.2 Connecticut 0.2 South Carolina 0.2 Hawaii 0.1 Nebraska 3rd District 0.1 Missouri 0.1 Vermont <0.1 Washington <0.1 Kansas <0.1 Illinois <0.1 Texas <0.1 Indiana <0.1 Oklahoma <0.1 District of Columbia <0.1 Mississippi <0.1 Arkansas <0.1 Nebraska - statewide <0.1 Maryland <0.1 Louisiana <0.1 New York <0.1 California <0.1 Wyoming <0.1 Utah <0.1 Massachusetts <0.1 Kentucky <0.1 West Virginia <0.1 Tennessee <0.1 Idaho <0.1 Alabama <0.1 Show all states ▾

# What to expect from the Electoral College In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently. 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Clinton’s electoral votes 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0% chance Clinton wins → 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Trump’s electoral votes 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0% chance Trump wins →

Swipe for state forecasts →

# Who’s winning the popular vote Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident. 0 25 50 75 100 Key Average 80% chance outcome falls in this range

# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes. Electoral College deadlock n o candidate gets 270 electoral votes 0.8% Recount a t least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 8.6% Clinton wins popular vote 59.6% Trump wins popular vote 40.4% Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 9.1% Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 1.4% Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 2.6% Clinton majority w ins at least 50 percent of the vote 7.5% Trump majority w ins at least 50 percent of the vote 3.8% Clinton landslide d ouble-digit popular vote margin 3.9% Trump landslide d ouble-digit popular vote margin 1.7% Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.4% Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 51.6% Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 89.5%

How this forecast works Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …