Josh Ruxin is a Columbia University expert on public health who has spent the last few years living in Rwanda. He’s an unusual mix of academic expert and mud-between-the-toes aid worker.

I’ve been remiss not to have written more on developments in Congo. That was, in part, because until recently, the situation there had not really evolved much over the past year. In fact, as a friend who has been photographing Congo for a decade remarked to me: The biggest difference between Congo in 2008 and Congo in 2007 was the number of reporters; there were a handful of them there in 2007, and hundreds in 2008. It seems that the intense scrutiny that followed them has started to pay some dividends over the last couple of months.

Eastern Congo, long the heart of the bloodiest killing on planet earth since World War II, seems to be turning a corner. The most powerful rebel commander has been captured and the Rwandan military is engaged in joint operations with the Congolese military. These are both unpredicted and extraordinary events that have created — even from my perch here in Rwanda — utter confusion among journalists, UN staffers and policy wonks alike about what is really going on. Regardless of the various interpretations floating around, it appears that directionally, the events of the past few weeks augur well for regional peace and prosperity.

Recapping events, let me begin with a caveat: Anyone who says he knows what is really going on in Eastern Congo shouldn’t be trusted. To the academics out there, please forgive my shorthand; I realize this is not history that can be easily condensed into a blog entry (for greater detail, see this Wikipedia entry).

Since 1994, Hutu militias, including thousands of genocidal killers from Rwanda, have roamed Eastern Congo. With its large Tutsi population, that meant that killings continued. For a time, Kabila’s rebel forces and the Rwandan government went after these killers, but that effort fell apart by 1998. Then, Eastern Congo became a regional battleground until Rwanda and other nations pulled back their forces in 2003. Since then, several militias have ensured that terror and atrocities have continued.

Throughout all of these years, allegations have multiplied of mineral wealth being exploited and militias being used to gain control of natural resources. That’s not new. What was new was the epidemic of rape and grotesque violence that shocked even the most war-hardened reporters. This epidemic was fueled by the lack of law and order in Eastern Congo and the abundance of autonomous militias. Since 2004, one militia, led by the Congolese Tutsi Laurent Nkunda, has professed a singular mission: to protect the Tutsi of Eastern Congo. His well-attired troops have stood apart from the rest — avoiding alcohol and smoking — and generally demonstrating discipline.

Nonetheless strong accusations have been leveled at Nkunda regarding the use of child soldiers and murderous rampages by soldiers affiliated with him. In October 2008, Nkunda nearly took the capital city of Goma in Eastern Congo but pulled back. Perhaps adding credibility to some of Nkunda’s assertions that he was in part protecting people from the Congolese military, the retreating Congolese soldiers from Goma murdered their own people and pillaged the city on the way out.

Then, just a few weeks ago, Jean Bosco Ntaganda (known as “the Terminator”), who has been charged by the International Criminal Court, severed his ties with Nkunda. Was that because Nkunda was furious with him over senseless killings his troops conducted? The jury is out. What followed, however, even the keenest observers did not predict: Two weeks ago, the Congolese Government welcomed the Rwandan military into Eastern Congo and the Rwandans took Nkunda into custody. While it’s tough to read the tea leaves, it’s clear that there has been extraordinary movement in what previously appeared to be an intractable situation and an impenetrable region.

Here’s why there’s reason to be hopeful. For the first time in nearly a decade, the governments of Rwanda and Congo are cooperating. They’ve moved from fighting proxy wars to essentially helping one another get what each wants. Rwanda wants the genocidal killers stopped (and it has an estimated 5000 troops working on that issue right now), and Congo wants the autonomy and control of Eastern Congo that Nkunda prevented. Rwanda reports that its troops will be out of Congo by month’s end.

It’s not clear whether Nkunda is actually under arrest in Rwanda. However, the Rwandan government has just defied the skeptics and announced that he will be placed in Congolese custody. Many colleagues and friends here are upset at this development. In their eyes (and those of their families living in Congo), Nkunda has been a protector against the militias, the genocidal killers, and the corrupt Congolese military forces. Whatever the case may be, it’s clear that de-militarization seems to be taking place in the region, with the Congolese military absorbing many of Nkunda’s troops. Worse trouble may yet be down the road. With Nkunda’s relatively disciplined troops gone or working with the Congolese soldiers, will there be a power vacuum in which together they are worse than what they displaced? Or will some of the smaller militias now move quickly to consolidate power through terror and brutal violence? In sum, all of these moves toward peace could backfire and create worse problems than Eastern Congo had before.

One other emerging element in all of this that is part of the whole: Rose Kabuye, under French indictment for the downing of the presidential aircraft in 1994, is back in France beginning trial preparations. The French have a longstanding policy of denial of responsibility for 1994’s genocide and have also been strong supporters of the Congolese government. With a trip by Sarkozy to Kinshasa slated soon, it seems that everyone may be ready these days to negotiate (and perhaps keep their skeletons in the closet). Let’s hope that everyone chooses peace and stability over the decades-old option of chaos that has benefited few and cost millions of lives.