Image courtesy of NBA.com

Start Fearing the Deer

Omaid Razzaq Blocked Unblock Follow Following Feb 8, 2017

Help is finally here for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker, and no I’m not talking about Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes. Khris Middleton makes his season debut against the surging Miami Heat after tearing his hamstring before the season.

Middleton’s return comes at the perfect time for the Bucks. Once, the East’s newest darlings, things have started falling apart for Milwaukee, now a full game behind Detroit for the 8th seed, despite Giannis and Jabari’s breakout seasons.

Middleton was the Bucks’ leading scorer last season and the key to its perimeter defense and should be able to help in a number of ways.

The most obvious is being a versatile third option. Last season, Middleton’s nightly line was essentially 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists, while shooting 44% from the field and a shade under 40% from beyond the arc. Let’s compare that to a few other shooting guards around the league.

Player A: 16 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. 43.9% from the field and 35.3% from behind the arc.

Player B: 17.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. 42% from the field and 38.7% from beyond the arc.

Player C: 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. 46.4% from the field and 40.3% from three-point range.

Middleton not only has better numbers than players A and B, but is also a much better defender than both of them. Player C is one of the five best shooting guards in the league and Middleton’s numbers last year suggest he’s not too far off from the upper echelon of two guards in the league.

Player A: Victor Oladipo

Player B: Eric Gordon

Player C: Klay Thompson

Khris Middleton would be the second best player on Oklahoma City and Houston, both playoff teams in the Western Conference.

Currently, the Bucks have three double-digit scorers and adding a weapon like Middleton can help jumpstart their middling offense. It will also open the door for Giannis and Jabari to become more efficient, as Middleton’s shooting stroke will spread the floor, and let them attack the rim more.

He should especially help from the corners. Tony Snell was brought into fill Middleton’s void, and has performed admirably, but is just not good from the corners.

Here is a shot chart from this season for Tony Snell compared to the rest of the league this season:

Notice the blue and purple? It means that Snell shoots below the league average on those shots, and from the right corner Snell is a whole 10% worse than the rest of the league. Compare this to Middleton’s 2015–2016 season.

Middleton is above league average from everywhere beyond the arc including the corner, meaning he’s not only a good three-point marksman, he’s an elite one.

Last season on catch and shoots, Middleton’s effective field goal percentage (percentage that weighs threes more heavily) was an unbelievable 59.3%. This season, Klay Thompson’s effective field goal percentage on catch and shoots is 60.6%.

Middleton will also be a huge component of the team’s defensive scheme as he rounds into form. At 6–8, Middleton is extremely long for a shooting guard and can switch onto multiple positions.

His length will also help the Bucks’ porous perimeter defense. Milwaukee is currently in the bottom three for opponents’ three-pointers attempted, allowing teams to attempt nearly 30 threes a game.

Since the new year, the Bucks have limited opponents to under 100 points, just once a 98–94 win against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The team’s defense has been the main culprit in Milwaukee’s 2–10 slide of late, but Middleton’s return should provide a much-needed boost.

That said, the team should be cautious of viewing Middleton’s return as the answer to all its problems.

“We’re going to look at him to save the season,” said Jabari Parker jokingly after practice.

Middleton will begin on a minutes restriction coming off the bench for 15–20 minutes a game. With the All-Star break looming, this time will mostly be dedicated to helping him adjust to the speed of the game and begin developing a rhythm.

With three of their next five games at home, this will be a perfect way for the Bucks to ease Middleton back into action, while also not exerting him too much.

Don’t expect Middleton to immediately become the best player on the team again, but the Bucks are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, and having a healthy Middleton down the stretch could be the key to propel the team back to the playoffs.