A German military think tank research paper has been leaked online outlining a series of potential national security risks associated with peak oil and goes on to make the startling claim that peak oil is already here. Peak oil is the widely used term to describe the peak of oil consumption before fossil fuel reserves begin to dwindle and competition for the remaining resources heats up, potentially leading to armed conflict, stock market crashes and worldwide civil unrest.

The paper came out of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a German think tank that is responsible for establishing a direction for the German military. Interestingly, the paper is not yet complete, it is pure scientific opinion and has not yet been edited in anyway by military command or government PR offices which makes it a stark, no holds barred, view of the world we are facing in the very near future.

This leak comes only a week after the Guardian newspaper in the UK uncovered a plot by the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to keep some of its internal documents secret due to fears of the effect they may have on the delicate state of the economy if released to the general public. According to the German military report, there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.”

The report was summarised by Stefan Bukold, a well known crude oil expert;