by Ezra Van Auken

Could it be that Islamic extremists have indeed heavily influenced the Syrian rebel opposition and that earlier reports of small support from Islamists are inaccurate? With IHS Jane’s defense analyst report out on Syria, it appears that could be the case. Categorizing and putting a number on the Syrian opposition, IHS Jane’s study analyzes “who” and “how many” are fighting against Assad’s regime. The study, done by the Britain-based company, is comprised of rebel interviews and intelligence estimates.

A more in-depth report is being prepared by IHS Jane’s and will be released this week, however the consultancy group hasn’t left us empty handed. According to IHS’s numbers, Syria’s opposition is overrun with extremists and nearly half take up the entire fighting force. Overall, an estimated 100,000 are taking arms against Assad and of that 100,000, there are a reported 10,000 jihadists, which include the foreign fighters. Adding to the extremist factions are 30,000 to 35,000 hard-line Islamists, allied to al-Qaeda.

Together with the 40,000 to 45,000 fueled Islamists are the likely 30,000 moderate rebels, most of which are still aligned with Islamic rule. These numbers would leave estimates very slim in terms of the fighters representing a nationalist Syrian opposition. Shockingly, IHS Jane’s study finds that around 1,000 different factions or groups are fighting inside Syria, showing a diverse and wide-ranged opposition to Assad. If anything, groups like al-Nusra are making up the core fight force in Syria.

Jason Ditz of AntiWar wrote, “What’s left is the secularist component, a pretty small minority in the grand scheme of things, made doubly so by the fact that the al-Qaeda run forces like Jabhat al-Nusra have been dramatically more formidable in fighting.” Charles Lister, author of the IHS study believes with fighting entering its third year in Syria, most factions or groups are seeing some sort of Islamic influence. Lister believes the West is battling the well-known fact of Islamist majority, hoping to support secularists, cleanly.

Another problem Lister evaluates is, “If the West looks as though it is not interested in removing Assad, moderate Islamists are also likely to be pushed further towards extremists.” By realizing the majority influence and presence of al-Qaeda-type Islamists in Syria, US officials have both gotten their hands on a sticky situation and also have decisions down the road to make on whether to further deepen their role. If US officials choose to pull out, Lister says the move could turn secularist moderates into extremists.

Carrying the weight of extremist Islamists is the Jabhat al-Nusra group as well as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), both of which have made a tremendous amount of influence in the past year. With Islamist groups taking the reins, more secularist-type, moderate factions are becoming disgruntled with the message, and as tensions rise not between the Assad regime and opposition but between opposition factions, more infighting is inevitably ensuing. This also is a problem for the West.

The extremist elements have certainly been felt since the intervention by Islamists began. More recently, as France 24 reports, members from the al-Nusra faction assaulted three villages in the Homs province, targeting Alawite villagers and effectively killing dozens. The French-based news site explained, “The statement said Al-Nusra fighters were urged by an Islamic jurist “to kill the Nusairis, enemies of God,” using a pejorative term for Alawites.” Traces of sectarian violence have become more relevant as the number of Islamists join the ranks of factions like al-Qaeda and ISIL.

Instead of a rebellion based off the distaste for Assad’s regime rule, Syria’s civil war has turned for the worse – into a sectarian fight – that many moderates are folding into. Ramping up the hatred against moderates and Shi’ite enthusiasts, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri said last week that Syrian Islamists should work to become allies with the toughest factions. Reuters reported, “His comment reflects a deepening rift between groups of the Western- and Arab-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) and guerrillas sympathetic to Zawahri’s ultra hardline network,” which ironically, in some instances, is being indirectly funded by the West and Arab states.

Al-Zawahri warned of jihad in Syria and explained that Islamists true to the message should ward away moderates and remain distant from groups like the Free Syrian Army. The al-Qaeda member also added that US officials would work to eventually back moderate rebels, and that the West would push influence for the secularists. Will the US keep digging their claws into the civil war potentially putting their own interests at risk, or find a way out of the fiasco that’s put Syria into its third year of war?

Image Reference

Agence LeJournal/SIPA TIME