Today, we are featuring two different posts on closely related topics. (1) This post, which relates to a proposal for an analysis which would cover a wide range of minerals, and (2) A report by Rembrandt about a group in Europe which seems to be doing at least some things fairly closely related to what Chris is discussing in his proposal, but probably on a more limited basis.

Below the fold is a proposal written by Chris Clugston relating to developing a better analysis of our non-renewable resources, that he would like our assistance on, in three ways:

Proposal for a Comprehensive Analysis of Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity

Nonrenewable natural resources (NNRs)—energy resources, metals, and minerals—are the lifeblood of industrialized civilization; they are the enablers of the “way of life” that we in the “developed” world have come to take for granted, and to which billions in the “developing world” aspire. As a case in point, approximately 95% of the material flows into the US economy each year are NNRs. In the absence of continuously available supplies of enormous quantities of NNRs, industrialized societies would cease to exist.

Rationale

Because NNR supplies are finite—NNR reserves are not replenished by Nature—NNR supplies will become increasingly scarce, given persistent extraction, as reserves are depleted toward exhaustion. Such has been the case in the US, and compelling evidence supports the contention that NNRs are becoming increasingly scarce on a global level as well. (See - http://www.wakeupamerika.com/PDFs/Continuously-Less-and-Less.pdf; and Appendix A below.)

Since global NNR scarcity is occurring now, and since global NNR scarcity will undermine, if not preclude, the population levels and material living standards associated with today’s industrialized and industrializing nations, it is critical that we understand the extent to which global NNR scarcity exists today and the extent to which it is likely to exist in the immediate future.

A comprehensive and objective analysis of global NNR scarcity spanning the period from 1950 to 2050 must be conducted, as the fundamental prerequisite to informed planning and policy development at the local, national, and global levels. The analysis must incorporate the best available data, analytical tools, and expertise.

Objectives

1. Identify factors, trends, and milestones regarding global NNR demand, supply, and utilization that have impacted or will impact NNR scarcity during the 1950-2050 time period. Specifics per NNR include demand and supply factors that determine global NNR utilization levels:

Socio-economic factors, trends, and milestones that determine NNR demand, e.g., population levels, per capita goods and services consumption levels (material living standards), economic stability, new technologies, new NNR applications, NNR substitution, conservation initiatives, and productivity increases.

Geological factors, trends, and milestones that determine NNR supply, e.g., discovery levels, “reserve growth” levels, extraction (production) levels, and recycling levels.

Geopolitical factors, trends, and milestones that determine NNR supply, e.g., political stability, NNR husbanding, and NNR exploration and production (E&P) investment.

2. Assess the “adequacy” associated with available NNR supplies going forward. Specific considerations per NNR include:

Will NNR supplies be sufficient to meet NNR demand through the year 2050?

If “no”, when is an NNR supply shortfall (demand exceeds supply) likely to occur?



If “yes”, will NNR supplies be sufficiently affordable in terms of financial costs, energy costs, and other natural resource costs to perpetuate an industrialized lifestyle paradigm?

What is the likely status of each NNR in the year 2050?

Abundant: NNR supply is likely to comfortably exceed demand beyond 2050.



Scarce: NNR supply is likely to be struggling to keep pace with demand by 2050.



Insufficient: NNR demand is likely to exceed supply by 2050; an NNR supply shortfall is likely to occur by 2050.

3. Assess the implications associated with global NNR scarcity on the future of industrialized human existence. Specific considerations include:

What are the likely impacts of NNR scarcity on industrialized and industrializing nations during the analysis period, and beyond?

What preemptive actions can be taken to mitigate the lifestyle disruptions—population level reductions and material living standard degradation—associated with NNR scarcity?

Method

Conduct a 101 year (1950-2050) global NNR scarcity analysis associated with each energy resource, metal, and mineral for which the USGS and/or other reputable organizations maintain global demand, supply, utilization, and pricing data. (See - http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/ - and - http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2009/mcs2009.pdf - for the approximately 90 NNRs monitored by the USGS; add coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium.)

Use actual NNR data for the 1950 to 2009 period; develop “best available” forecasts for the 2010 to 2050 period. Consider three future scenarios: conservative, probable, and optimistic. Create, as the core of the analysis, a set of NNR profiles, each of which will contain historical and projected NNR data for a specific NNR over the 101 year period:

Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource (NNR) Profile



NNR Profile Element Historical Data

1950………2009 Future Projections

2010………..2050 NNR Reserve Level Beginning Proven NNR Reserve Level Annual NNR Supply-side Reserve Adjustments New NNR Discoveries “Proved Up” NNRs from Previous Discoveries Newly Recycled NNRs Administrative NNR Reserve Revisions Total Annual NNR Supply-side Reserve Adjustments Annual NNR Demand-side Reserve Adjustments Primary NNR Utilization Primary NNR Extraction Primary NNR Inventory Change Total Primary NNR Utilization Recycled NNR Utilization Total Annual NNR Demand-side Reserve Adjustments Ending Proven NNR Reserve Level NNR Reserve Quality Geological Reserve Quality Geopolitical Reserve Quality NNR Price

Definitions: See Appendix B for NNR Profile Element Definitions

Appendix A: Major Metals Scarcity

Following is a summary table from a work-in-process being conducted in conjunction with Dr. David Roper from Virginia Tech University. It contains projected global peak extraction (production) years and global peak supply years for 19 major metals (plus phosphate rock) based upon Verhulst curve fitting.

The results are disturbing—sufficiently disturbing that the exercise must be expanded to include all NNRs for which reliable data exist and reworked to include the best available NNR demand, supply, and utilization projections going forward.

In the most optimistic future NNR supply scenario, which includes estimated recycled NNR quantities in addition to estimated NNR quantities remaining to be extracted, global supplies associated with 14 of the 20 NNRs are projected to peak by the year 2050. In the most conservative scenario, which employs estimated NNR “reserves” as the measure of NNR quantities remaining to be extracted, global extraction (production) levels associated with 19 of the 20 NNRs are projected to peak by the year 2035.

Peak Global Extraction (Production) Level and Supply Level Estimates for Major Metals





Metal (Plus Phosphate Rock) [Metric Tons] Peak-to-Date Year Estimated “Ultimate” Global Peak Year US Peak Extraction To Date Global Peak Extraction To Date Est. Peak Extraction (Using USGS Reserves Data) Est. Peak Extraction

(Using USGS Reserve Base Data) Est. Peak Supply (Recycling Included) Bauxite 1981 2008

(205M MT) 2035

(900M MT) 2037

(1,400M MT) 2040

(4,100M MT) Cadmium 1969 1988

(22K MT) 1988 2002

(26K MT) Chromium 1959 2007

(6.6M MT) 2028

(7.7M MT) 2035

(8.5M MT) 2048

(20M MT) Cobalt 1958 2008

(71.8K MT) 2030

(68K MT) 2040

(70K MT) 2065

(130K MT) Copper 1998 2008

(15.7M MT) 2020

(?) 2030

(?) 2038

(37M MT) Gold 1998 2001

(2.6K MT) 2003

(2.1K MT) 2015

(2.3K MT) 2028

(4.2K MT) Iron Ore 1951 2008

(2.2B MT) 2012

(2.5B MT) 2018

(3.9B MT) 2070

(8.7B MT) Lead 1970 2008

(3.8M MT) 1990

(3.4M MT) 2042

(16.8M MT) Lithium 1954 2008

(27.4K MT) 2055

(86K MT) 2065

(57K MT) 2075

(195K MT) Manganese 1918 2008

(14M MT) 2012

(18M MT) 2023

(73M MT) 2050

(51M MT) Mercury 1943 1971 1971 Molybdenum 1980 2008

(212K MT) 2020

(175K MT) 2027

(180K MT) 2035

(290K MT) Nickel 1997 2007

(1.7M MT) 2022

(1.75M MT) 2030

(1.85M MT) 2080

(7.5M MT) PGM 2002 2006

(513 MT) 2006

(440 MT) 2010

(440 MT) 2110

(790 MT) Phosphate Rock 1980 2008

(167M MT) 1988

(147M MT) 2030

(158M MT) Silver 1916 2008

(20.9K MT) 2002

(15K MT) 2008

(16K MT) 2025

(28.5K MT) Tin 1945 2008

(333K MT) 2008

(333K MT) 2018

(730K MT) 2020

(675K MT) Titanium 1964 2007

(10M MT) 2005

(7.9M MT) 2025

(9M MT) 2050

(20M MT) Tungsten 1955 2004

(66.6K MT) 1990

(44K MT) 2012

(53K MT) 2090

(155K MT) Zinc 1969 2008

(11.3M MT) 2005

(9M MT) 2020

(10.3M MT) 2015

(13.1M MT)

Sources: USGS data - http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/ and http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2009/mcs2009.pdf; and Dr. David Roper’s Mineral Depletion page - http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/minerals.htm.

Appendix B: NNR Profile Element Definitions